NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 13th - Page Two
L.A. Clippers at Dallas – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -2.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| L.A. Clippers | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.8 | Team Pace | 96.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Season | 3 | 14 | 26 | 19 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 11 | 28 | 18 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 4 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers will be without Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford again tonight, but the team has played well in their absence. They
have won two games in a row and seven of their last ten. They head to Dallas tonight to take on the Mavericks in a game that has a relatively low total of 202 points. The Mavericks do present a terrific matchup for fantasy production though, as they are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 41-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10600, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
I should have taken my own advice on Wednesday night. Paul outplayed Russell Westbrook en route to another 50 fantasy point outing. He did injure his ankle in that game, but he’s not expected to miss tonight’s game. He draws a fantastic matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks, who have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Matt Barnes (FD: $5100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Barnes played well in the Clippers’ win over the Thunder on Wednesday. He scored 37 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. He should log heavy minutes again tonight, as Jamal Crawford remains out with his calf injury. He’s one of the better value plays at small forward tonight.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9500, DK: $8900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Jordan is an excellent tournament play against the Mavericks. He has 20/20 type of upside against a team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season. I will have zero shares of Jordan in cash games, but he could be a difference maker in tournaments.
Dallas
The Mavericks continue to drop in the Western Conference standings. It seems as if the Jazz have stolen their talent, much like the Monstars did in Space Jam. If the Mavericks aren’t careful, they could easily fall out of the playoff picture altogether. They will look to get back on track tonight against a short-handed Clippers’ team. It’s hard to trust any player with a Mavericks’ uniform on right now, which is why I will be avoiding them in cash games tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 42-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 209 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Livingston-Holiday-Barnes-Green-Lee
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
| Golden State | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0 | Vegas Sprd | 0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.9 | Team Pace | 98.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shaun Livingston | Justin Holiday | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | David Lee | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 22 | Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 6 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 20 | |
Golden State
Coach Steve Kerr announced yesterday that he was going to rest some of his players tonight. He wasn’t lying, as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, and Andre Iguodala will all get the night off. Unlike the situation with the Grizzlies last night, the backups should play well tonight against the Nuggets. Denver is ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season. The Warrirors have one of the highest team totals on the board and provide a TON of value.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 24-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $8000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Green is the one Warriors’ star that will not be rested tonight. He should see an increased role in the offense and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Nuggets have allowed more fantasy points to power forwards than any other team in the NBA this season. Don’t overthink this one, Green is in a prime matchup and will have an increased role in the offense tonight.
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4100, DK: $4100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Barnes went from being off my radar to being one of my favorite value plays in a matter of minutes. With the Warriors resting players, Barnes could push for 35+ minutes tonight against the Nuggets. He should have a bigger role in the offense as well, making him the top value play at small forward.
Shaun Livingston (FD: $4100, DK: $4100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both out tonight, Livingston is close to must play in cash games. He has been reaching value in limited playing time off the bench and should be able to exceed value with ease tonight against the Nuggets. He’s only $4,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and I’d willingly pay $6,000 for him in this spot.
Secondary Plays
David Lee and Justin Holiday are both in play here as well. Both should see big minutes in an uptempo game against the Nuggets.
Denver
The Nuggets have won four of their last six games, including an impressive win over the Hawks on Wednesday night. The Nuggets have a great chance to pick up another win tonight against the short-handed Warriors. They are currently projected to score 104.5 points tonight, which is one of the higher team totals on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 51-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6500, DK: $6700 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights are both out for tonight’s game, which means Faried will match up against David Lee. I like his chances to put up another big game tonight. He has played well over his last six games, averaging 34 fantasy points per contest. The “Manimal” is a strong play tonight in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $5700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Gallinari has scored at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He continues to reach value expectations at his price point and he has a good chance to reach value once again. He’s one of the few mid-range options at small forward that is actually a big part of his team’s offense.
Ty Lawson (FD: $7300, DK: $6600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Lawson should fly under the radar tonight, making him an appealing option for tournaments. His minutes have been down recently, but he draws a favorable matchup against a short-handed Warriors’ team. Lawson’s price is also depressed, as he only needs 33 fantasy points to reach value on DraftKings.
Atlanta at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -6, 203.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
| Atlanta | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.25 | Team Pace | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 22 | 24 | 9 | 20 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 9 | 16 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 21 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks were either affected by the altitude in Denver or they took advantage of the lax laws in the state, if you know what I mean. They didn’t look anything like the team that owns the best record in the Eastern Conference. They should bounce back tonight against the Suns, whose defense was last seen on the side of a milk carton (it’s missing). The Suns have allowed the fourth-most points per game and they have the sixth-worst rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 34-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Millsap and the Hawks should be able to bounce back tonight against Suns, after being blown out in Denver on Wednesday. Millsap’s price is at one of its lowest points of the season, giving us a terrific opportunity to buy on the All-Star. The Suns have done a good job of containing opposing power forwards this season, but Millsap is a tough cover for anyone. Take advantage of the cheap price tag while you can.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $6900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
My biggest knock on Teague is his playing time. He’s a very productive player while on the floor, but typically only sees around 30 minutes per game. If I’m paying close to $7,000 for a player, I want that total to be closer to 35. He draws a favorable matchup against the Hawks, but will likely only see around 30 minutes of action once again.
Phoenix
The Suns picked up a win over the Wolves on Wednesday night and need another win tonight in order to keep pace in the race for the last spot in the playoffs. They draw a tough matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this season. Don’t be fooled by the high total in this game. The Suns are only projected to score 99 points, which is six points lower than their season average of 105 per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 50-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8200, DK: $8100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Brandon Knight is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Hawks, which means Bledsoe will be the only playmaker in the Suns’ back-court. He has a knack of letting us down in these big spots, but he offers good upside at his price point. Bledsoe’s increased role in the offense puts him in play tonight against the Hawks. Additionally, he is still listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel and DraftKings, which allows to roster an extra point guard.
Marcus Morris (FD: $4400, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
With Brandon Knight out, Marcus drew the start at small forward on Wednesday night. He played a great game, finishing with 8 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. If he draws another start tonight, he can be targeted as a value play at small forward.
Detroit at Portland – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -8.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Detroit | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.79 | Team Pace | 96.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tayshaun Prince | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 5 | Opp. Season | 4 | 18 | 16 | 28 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 30 | 22 | 5 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 28 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have lost eight games in a row. While they put up a good fight against the Warriors on Wednesday night, we never really know with Detroit team is going to show up. They draw an extremely tough matchup against the Blazers tonight in Portland. The Blazers are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Pistons are only projected to score 94 points, which is one of the lower team totals on the schedule tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 42-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8900, DK: $8000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Drummond is strictly a GPP play, but you have to love the upside that he offers. He has topped 40 fantasy points six times in his last ten games and he’s coming off of a huge 22 point, 27 rebound performance against the Warriors. He’s also listed at a bargain price of only $8,000 on DraftKings.
Portland
The Blazers have won seven of their last ten games and look primed for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They host the visiting Pistons tonight in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout. The Blazers are 8.5-point favorites and the Pistons have lost each of their last eight games. There are a few different options on Portland tonight, but they do come with an asterisk.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9400, DK: $9000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
If I had any faith in the Pistons, I’d have Aldridge listed as an elite play tonight. I’m not sure the Pistons can keep this one close though, which could result in Aldridge only seeing three quarters of action. He does draw a terrific matchup though, as the Pistons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6400, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum has played well over his last four games, averaging 36.6 fantasy points per contest. He has been much more aggressive offensively, which should be a sign of good things to come. Batum is also being asked to play heavy minutes with Wesley Matthews out for the season.