NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS NBA news.
Sacramento at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -3, 207 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Landry-Cousins
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Richardson-Sampson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Sacramento | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.72 | Team Pace | 98.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Carl Landry | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Jason Richardson | Jakarr Sampson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 29 | 14 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 11 | 20 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 12 | 15 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games and are one of my teams that is counting down the days until the end of the season. Luckily, they get to face the Sixers in what will look more like a pick-up game than an actual NBA game. The Kings are 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 207 points. Both teams will look to push the pace, and assuming it stays competitive, this could be a fantasy gold mine. On the season, the Sixers are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 14-50
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10500, DK: $9500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.6)
Cousins is the premier play at center tonight and it’s really not close. He draws a tremendous matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 30th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential this season. He has been dealing with an ankle injury, but is probable for tonight’s game. Everything is lining up for him to have one of his best games of the season, especially given the fact that the Kings are only 3-point favorites. If Boogie plays 35 minutes, it’s hard to envision him not scoring 50+ fantasy points.
Rudy Gay (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Gay is coming off of a strong seven-game stretch where he has averaged 37 fantasy points per contest. His price has reacted to his recent level of production, but he should be in for another big outing tonight against the Sixers. Gay has a very high usage rate in the offense and he’s finally posting some of the peripheral stats that we love to see in DFS. He has grabbed at least seven rebounds in four of his last seven games.
Secondary Plays
Ray McCallum (FD: $5000, DK: $4600 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
McCallum is an intriguing tournament option tonight against the Sixers. Aaron Brooks was the latest point guard to take advantage of the Sixers back-court (31 points, 5 assists). While I don’t expect that type of production from McCallum, the matchup is certainly in his favor. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last four outings.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have lost eight of their last ten games, but they have been much more competitive in their last few games. Vegas does not expect a blowout tonight against the Kings, as the Sixers are listed as only 3-point underdogs. The Kings are one of the best matchups on the board tonight. They are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season, giving up an average of 116.2 over their last five games.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 22-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7500, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
I want to play Noel tonight, I really do. It’s just hard to justify paying a price of $7,500 for him on FanDuel. He’s a little cheaper on DraftKings though, and he makes for an appealing tournament option on the site. Noel has averaged 37 fantasy points per game over his last seven. He is one of the few players in the NBA that has the ability to post double-digit fantasy points with blocks and steals alone.
Ish Smith (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 9 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
If Smith is in the starting lineup again tonight, he deserves consideration as a value play at point guard. He played well in his start against the Bulls, scoring 23 points and handing out seven dimes. His price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he still only needs 25 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He’s capable of that against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 27th against point guards.
Jason Richardson (FD: $4300, DK: $3700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Guess which team has allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Go ahead, I’ll wait. That’s correct! The Kings are ranked dead last against shooting guards. No one will be targeting Richardson after the last two duds he has put up. He had averaged 26.5 fantasy points in his previous four contests. I love him as a contrarian tournament play tonight.
Chicago at Charlotte – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -1, 189.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Biyombo
| Chicago | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.5 |  | Vegas Total | 189.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.56 | Team Pace | 95.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 6 | Opp. Season | 24 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 9 | 18 | 10 | 13 | |
Chicago
The Bulls have done a decent job of keeping the ship afloat while they wait for their players to return from injury. They have won five of their last ten games and are still in the three-seed in the Eastern Conference. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson are all expected to miss tonight’s game, while Joakim Noah is listed as a game-time decision. The matchup against the Hornets isn’t great, but the Bulls are short-handed and their players will be asked to log heavy minutes again tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 28-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9200, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Gasol is a strong play tonight with Taj Gibson out. If Joakim Noah is unable to suit up, he becomes one of the top plays on the board. He is coming off of a monster outing against the Sixers in which he had 27 points, 16 rebounds, and 2 assists. He is the primary option offensively and he should feast on a Hornets’ front-court that will be without Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $6400, DK: $6800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21)
Mirotic will become an elite play if Joakim Noah is ruled out tonight. If Noah is able to play, Mirotic is more of a secondary option at his price point. He has been on a tear over his last seven games, averaging 33 fantasy points per contest.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $6000, DK: $5400 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Brooks is coming off of a huge game against the Sixers. He took over in the fourth quarter and overtime and led his team to a victory. He is a terrific scorer, but he relies on points for the majority of his fantasy production. His increased price has him listed as a secondary option tonight against the Hornets.
Charlotte
The injury gods giveth and they taketh away. In Kemba Walker’s first game back from injury, Al Jefferson hurt his calf and his knee. He will likely miss at least the next few games. The Hornets will also be without Cody Zeller, which means Marvin Williams and Bismack Biyombo will man the middle tonight against the Bulls. Tonight’s matchup is mediocre at best, as the Bulls are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and fifth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 40-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $7300, DK: $7600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Even with Kemba Walker back in the lineup, Williams played 38 minutes and scored 34 fantasy points the other night against the Kings. With Walker on a minute-restriction and Al Jefferson out, Williams is arguably an elite option tonight against the Bulls. With Aaron Brooks at the helm, it’s no surprise that the Bulls have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team over the last three weeks.
Marvin Williams (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller are both expected to miss tonight’s game against the Bulls, which means Williams is going to be asked to log heavy minutes. He has played well over his last six games, averaging 20 fantasy points per contest. He should see a sizable uptick in minutes and usage rate tonight, making him a terrific value play at power forward. He’s a low-risk option with decent upside against the Bulls.
Secondary Plays
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD: $6200, DK: $5900 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
MKG is a sneaky play tonight against the Bulls. He should see an uptick in minutes and possibly in usage with Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller out. He’s a player that often gets overlooked in daily fantasy basketball, but he could be a difference maker tonight. He is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 42 fantasy points against the Kings on Wednesday night.
Orlando at Boston – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -5.5, 194 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Dedmon-Vucevic
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Orlando | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.80 | Team Pace | 98.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Dewayne Dedmon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 3 | 25 | 24 | 24 | Opp. Season | 22 | 8 | 30 | 21 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 19 | 18 | |
Orlando
The Magic have lost two games in a row and six of their last ten. They have a strong, young nucleus, but they can’t seem to turn the corner. They head to Boston tonight to take on the Celtics in what is expected to be a fairly low-scoring game. On paper, this is a better matchup than the game’s total would make it appear. The Celtics are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 18th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 27-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 102 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
On paper, Vucevic is an elite play against the Celtics. They are ranked 24th against centers and 18th in rebounding differential this season. The low team total is what has me concerned. Vucevic has also been very inconsistent recently, scoring 23, 34, 25, and 38 fantasy points in his last four games. While the matchup is there, I’d rather pay a little more and take DeMarcus Cousins if I’m looking to pay up at center tonight.
Tobias Harris (FD: $6600, DK: $6700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Harris has played well over his last four games, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in each. He draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his price tag. He needs around 33 fantasy points to hit value.
Boston
The Celtics are still in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. They are only a game and a half behind the eighth-seeded Heat. They have a great chance to make up some ground tonight, as they host the struggling Magic. The Celtics are 5.5-point favorites with their team total set at 100 points. This matchup isn’t as good as it once was. Since firing Jacque Vaughn, the Magic have become one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA. Isaiah Thomas is not expected to play tonight, which should give a boost to Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 21-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Avery Bradley (FD: $5700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Bradley was not limited in his first game back from injury, scoring 28 fantasy points in 34 minutes against the Grizzlies. He will likely be asked to log a ton of minutes again tonight, as Isaiah Thomas is not expected to play. Bradley has a high floor and is actually a much better scorer than he’s given credit for. He has a good chance to reach value against Victor Oladipo and the Magic.
Secondary Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $5000, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Smart should also see an uptick in minutes with Isaiah Thomas out. He will be the primary ball-handler tonight against a Magic defense that is ranked 22nd against point guards this season. Smart can disappear offensively at times though, which is why he is only listed as a secondary option tonight.
Miami at Toronto – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Miami | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.82 | Team Pace | 95.92 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 12 | 27 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 11 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 21 | 24 | 8 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 26 | |
Miami
The Heat have been dealing with a ton of injuries, and even a suspension for Hassan Whiteside after he elbowed Kelly Olynyk. It sounds as if they will have all starters available for tonight’s game against the Raptors. The Heat are 5.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 204 points. The Raptors present a pretty decent matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 38-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade has turned back the clock over his last seven games, averaging 40 fantasy points per contest. His price on FanDuel has come up, but he’s still listed at a bargain price of $7,200 on DraftKings. Dollar for dollar, he’s arguably the top play at shooting guard on DK. He draws a decent matchup against the Raptors, who have struggled defensively over the last month of play.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dragic is in play as a contrarian pick for tournaments. He has been in and out of the lineup, but he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game over his last four. Kyle Lowry has been known as a very good defender throughout his career, but that hasn’t been the case this season. As a team, the Raptors have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Toronto
It’s hard to believe, but the Raptors have lost four games in a row and nine of their last ten. They appear to have lost their bite defensively (Raptors – dinosaur – get it?). They have a good chance to break out of their funk tonight against the Heat at home. They are 5.5-point favorites against a team that has really made an effort to push the pace of play recently. It’s a decent matchup, but there is only one target on my radar tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 29-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $7600, DK: $7100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Lowry has played well since returning from his various injuries, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last three games. The fantasy production is nice, but I’m most impressed with his aggressiveness on offense. He has taken an average 19 shot attempts per game during that stretch. An aggressive Lowry is a productive Lowry. We can expect more of the same from Lowry tonight against the Heat, who have made an effort to push the tempo since acquiring Goran Dragic.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -10.5, 211 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
| Minnesota | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.39 | Team Pace | 97.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Season | 28 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 24 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 6 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves have suddenly become a team that is void of viable fantasy options. Kevin Martin is in a slump, Ricky Rubio is only expected to play 28-30 minutes, and Nikola Pekovic seems to get injured every other game. The Wolves draw a favorable matchup against the uptempo Thunder, but it’s hard to trust any of the players listed above. Keep your eye on the status of Nikola Pekovic. If he is forced to miss tonight’s game, Gorgui Dieng and Adreian Payne would see an uptick in minutes.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 35-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6400, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Wiggins is the only Wolves’ player on my radar tonight, unless of course there in an injury update, which could change things. Wiggins has scored at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and he draws a favorable matchup tonight. Kyle Singler is not the same defender that Kevin Durant is, as evidenced by the fact that the team is ranked 27th against small forwards over the last seven days.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder were no match for the Clippers on Wednesday night, but should be able to bounce back tonight against the Wolves. The Thunder are 10-point favorites against a team that has allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA this season. The Thunder are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is the second-highest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13000, DK: $12500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 37.4)
Apologies to Brook Lopez and Aaron Brooks, but Westbrook is the best ‘brook. Westbrook is looking to bounce back after a rough outing against the Clippers. The good news is that his price has come down $300 on FanDuel. He draws a much better matchup tonight against the Wolves, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season. I’m predicting another triple-double for the MVP-candidate tonight. The Wolves do not have an elite shot blocker to protect the rim.
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $5900, DK: $5800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
As a Jazz fan, I couldn’t be happier for Kanter. Not only is he playing on a playoff-caliber team, but he’s opened the door for Rudy Gobert to become the monster that he was meant to be. Kanter has played well over his last five games, averaging 27 fantasy points per contest. He’s worth a look as a contrarian play against a very beatable frontcourt of the Wolves.