NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Portland at Orlando – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -7, 201.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harkless-Frye-Vucevic
| Portland | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.47 | Team Pace | 95.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | Lamarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Maurice Harkless | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 10 | 30 | 21 | 25 | Opp. Season | 25 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 29 | 30 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 14 | |
Portland
The Blazers are looking to bounce back after losing two games in a row. They have a great chance to do just that against the Magic tonight. The Blazers are listed as 6.5-point favorites against an Orlando team that is ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season. You can make a case for all five starters from the Blazers tonight, but I’ve narrowed it down to my top three.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 21-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
Aldridge is coming off of a fantastic three-game stretch, where is has averaged 47 fantasy points per contest. He draws one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as the Magic are ranked 21st against power forwards and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Aldridge is a strong play regardless, but he would see a small boost if the physical Dewayne Dedmon is unable to suit up tonight. I like his chances to post a monster fantasy outing against Channing Frye.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
The big question at point guard tonight is whether or not we can fade Russell Westbrook. His price is high enough that it’s certainly an option. Dollar for dollar, I have Lillard ranked slightly ahead of Westbrook tonight. Lillard has played well over his last six games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against Elfrid Payton and the Magic, who have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum has really stepped up since Wesley Matthews went down with his season-ending injury. Over his last six games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He has the unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he has been more aggressive offensively in recent weeks. He’s a solid mid-range option at small forward tonight against the Magic.
Orlando
There are quite a few injuries on the Magic that we need to monitor throughout the day. Tobias Harris, Dewayne Dedmon, and Willie Green are all headed toward game-time decisions. Evan Fournier has already been ruled out. The Magic draw a tough matchup against the Blazers, but the injury situation could open up a couple of plays tonight.
Editor’s Note: Harris, Dedmon, and Green are out tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 44-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $8400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25)
Oladipo has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 38 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest. He would see a decent boost if Tobias Harris is unable to suit up tonight. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Blazers, who haven’t been great against shooting guards this season. They recently gave up a monster game to Dwyane Wade the other night.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton (FD: $6900, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Payton is a very sneaky play tonight against the Blazers. His price has come way up, which means his ownership level will likely be very low. He is a solid tournament play tonight, especially if Tobias Harris is unable to suit up. Payton has averaged 35 fantasy points per game over his last nine and the Blazers are ranked 25th against point guards.
New York at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -6, 189.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Thomas-Amundson-Bargnani
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Richardson-Sampson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| New York | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.8 | Team Proj. | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.39 | Team Pace | 98.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Lance Thomas | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Jason Richardson | Jakarr Sampson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 29 | 15 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 21 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 17 | 12 | |
New York
The Knicks lost in overtime to the Wolves last night. While most fans don’t cheer for their team to lose, it was actually better for the Knicks that they lost that game. The same applies thinking applies tonight, as they face the Sixers. Both of these teams have nothing to play for at this point in the season. The Knicks are listed as 5-point underdogs with their team total set at only 92 points. Don’t let the low total scare you off of the Knicks tonight though, as the Sixers are always a favorable matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 16-52
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Alexey Shved (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
It’s Shvedsanity in New York right now. He has been terrific since entering the starting lineup, as he is averaging 36 fantasy points per contest over his last six games. Don’t let his hefty price tag scare you off of him tonight against the Sixers. This game will be played at a fast pace and Shved should have another game where he is able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. There is no reason why he can’t have another productive outing tonight against the Sixers.
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5900, DK: $6100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Bargnani seems to play well on nights when he’s not on anyone’s radar. When he finds himself in a terrific matchup (like last night), he seems to underperform. Hopefully that’s not the case again tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 30th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Langston Galloway (FD: $5000, DK: $4800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
If Tim Hardaway is ruled out again tonight, fire up Galloway as a serviceable value play. He is coming off of two 33+ fantasy point outings in a row and he should be able to keep it rolling tonight against the Sixers. He could very well push for 40+ minutes in this favorable matchup. If he does, he should have no problem reaching the 25 fantasy point mark that he needs to meet value expectations.
Philadelphia
The Sixers aren’t favorites in many games these days. They are actually sizable favorites tonight against the Knicks, as Vegas has them favored by 5 points. The Knicks present us with a favorable matchup for fantasy production. They are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-54
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Ish Smith (FD: $5500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 9 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Smith drew the start over Isaiah Canaan the other night and it’s a move that will likely stick after his performance. He finished the game with 15 points, 8 assists, and 3 steals. He may not be the shooter that Canaan is, but he’s certainly a better playmaker. If he draws the start again tonight, I love the upside that he offers at his price point, especially in a matchup against the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7300, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Noel hurt his foot against the Pistons on Wednesday night, but is expected to play tonight against the Knicks. If we throw out the last game (where he played limited minutes), Noel has averaged 35 fantasy points per game over his last nine. His price is reasonable and so is the matchup against Andrea Bargnani and the Knicks.
Indiana at Cleveland – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -11, 201.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Indiana | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.59 | Team Pace | 94.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 24 | 24 | 11 | 15 | Opp. Season | 12 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 3 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 16 | |
Indiana
Tonight’s game between the Pacers and Cavaliers has very little fantasy appeal. The Pacers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and both teams are ranked in the top 13 in points allowed per game. The Pacers are 11-point underdogs with their team total set at only 95 points. We can safely avoid all Pacers tonight in the potential blowout against the Cavaliers.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 44-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Cleveland
LeBron James missed shoot-around this morning and is being listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Pacers. If James is able to play, the Cavaliers can safely be avoided altogether. This is a tough matchup for fantasy production, as the Pacers are ranked in the top eight in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. However, if James is unable to play tonight, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love would both become viable options.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 30-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Denver at Miami – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -7, 208.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried-Nurkic
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| Denver | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.38 | Team Pace | 93.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | Opp. Season | 13 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 28 | |
Denver
The Nuggets are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. Not only that, but they also have to face one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. On paper, this is not a great matchup to exploit, as he Heat are ranked seventh in points allowed per game this season. The Nuggets have played well recently though and I still have two players that are on my radar for tonight’s contest.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 31-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Faried has recently become the “Manimal” that we all knew he could be. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 37 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. That type of production easily meets the requirement of value at his price point. The matchup against the Heat isn’t ideal, but the Nuggets may decide to start Jusuf Nurkic on Hassan Whiteside, which would leave the better matchup (Udonis Haslem) for Faried.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5700, DK: $5300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Chandler is one of those players that you never feel 100% confident about when you roster him. He is very hit or miss, but he can pay off when he hits. Chandler has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games and is coming off of a 40 fantasy point outing against the Rockets last night. Chandler also sees a small boost with Danilo Gallinari out tonight (rest).
Miami
The Heat are in must-win mode for the rest of the season. They are currently one game ahead of the Celtics and Pacers, as the three teams fight for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They have a good chance to extend their lead tonight, as they host the Denver Nuggets. This is one of the best matchups on the board, as the Nuggets play at a fast pace and do not defend well. The Heat are projected to score 108 points tonight, which is 13 points higher than their average on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 26-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade has turned back the clock. This is a Wade that we haven’t seen in years. He has been terrific over his last nine games, averaging 40.6 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has scored at least 35 fantasy points in every single game. Wade’s price continues to climb, but until he slows down, there is no reason to fade him. He is the top shooting guard on the board tonight.
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Rudy Gobert has taken over Whiteside’s role as the most hyped big man in daily fantasy basketball, but Whiteside may lay claim to his throne after tonight’s game. The Nuggets have struggled to defend the paint for years and Whiteside should cause havoc on both ends of the floor against a team that is ranked dead last against centers this season. He’s a strong play in both cash games and tournaments tonight, especially on DraftKings where he is priced at $7,600.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic and Luol Deng are both viable options against the Nuggets. Both are better suited as tournament options in my eyes though, as I will already have a lot of Heat exposure in cash games with Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3, 191 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Milwaukee | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.31 | Team Pace | 94.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 27 | 8 | 27 | 16 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 22 | 18 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 22 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 26 | 18 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks will be without Jared Dudley and O.J. Mayo tonight, but that doesn’t make a huge fantasy impact for the team. The Bucks head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets in what is expected to be a fairly low scoring game. The Bucks are 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 191 points. The Nets are a mediocre matchup at best.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 27-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7200, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Giannis has been a little hit or miss recently, but he is coming off of back-to-back 38+ fantasy point outings. His price is still reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he deserves consideration tonight against the Nets. He has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he will likely play minutes in the upper 30’s tonight against Brooklyn.
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5400, DK: $5200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Ilyasova is not a recommended cash game option, but he does offer some appeal as an upside play in tournaments. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 27.5 fantasy points per contest. He provides good upside at his price point and he’ll likely have a very low level of ownership.
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. They are 3-point favorites tonight against the Bucks though, so they could pick up a win at home. In terms of the matchup, this is not a great one for potential fantasy production. The Bucks are ranked second in defensive efficiency and fifth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 34-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
It’s safe to say that Ersan Ilyasova is not an elite defender at this point in his career. The Nets will look to exploit that matchup tonight with Thaddeus Young. Young has scored at least 27 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He offers good value at his price point.