NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 20th - Page Two
Toronto at Chicago – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -1.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Toronto | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 100 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.09 | Team Pace | 95.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 11 | Opp. Season | 22 | 14 | 26 | 8 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 4 | |
Toronto
The Raptors may be without Kyle Lowry tonight against the Bulls. Lowry injured his back on Wednesday night and is listed as a game-time decision tonight. The Raptors draw a mediocre matchup against the Bulls, who play at a fairly slow pace and have a fairly good defense. If Lowry is unable to suit up tonight, Lou Williams and Greivis Vasquez would become viable value options.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 41-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7400, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
DeRozan would also see a boost if Kyle Lowry is unable to suit up tonight. DeRozan already has a high usage rate (28.4) and that number will only go up without Lowry in the lineup. DeRozan has been terrific over his last seven games, averaging 35 fantasy points per contest.
Chicago
The Bulls are hoping to have Taj Gibson back in the lineup tonight against the Raptors. It will be interesting to see how Coach Thibadeau splits up the minutes in the frontcourt and if he uses Nikola Mirotic at small forward. Until we get a better picture, it’s best to avoid all four of the Bulls’ big men in cash games. Mirotic does still offer some appeal as a tournament play.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 41-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Aaron Brooks (FD: $5800, DK: $5500 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Brooks is flying under the radar tonight. While there are safer options in cash games, he does offer good upside for the price. Brooks has topped 31 fantasy points in two of his last four games and he draws a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.
Atlanta at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -2, 212 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Bazemore-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-McGary-Adams
| Atlanta | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2 | Vegas Sprd | 2 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107 | Team Proj. | 105 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.33 | Team Pace | 98.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kent Bazemore | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Mitch McGary | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 4 | Opp. Season | 14 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 19 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks are looking to bounce back after a bad showing against the Warriors on Wednesday night. The Hawks should have a much better game tonight against the short-handed Thunder. Vegas has them listed as 2-point favorites in a game that features a total of 212 points. The Thunder are always a solid matchup in daily fantasy because they play at an extremely fast pace.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 38-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7800, DK: $7700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Dollar for dollar, Millsap may be my favorite play at power forward tonight. His price is depressed, he has played well in his last three games, and he draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Thunder. Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Millsap will be able to feast on an under-sized and under-manned Thunder frontcourt.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5800, DK: $5800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Even with Kyle Korver out, Carroll has flown under the radar in the last two games. Carroll has seen an uptick in both minutes and production with Korver out, scoring 32 and 39 fantasy points in those two games. His price has yet to reflect his recent level of production, which allows us at least one more opportunity to target Carroll at this price point. He’s a strong play tonight in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Kent Bazemore (FD: $5300, DK: $4300 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Bazemore’s different price points puts him in a different category of play on each site. He’s more of a secondary option on FanDuel ($5,300) and more of an elite option on DraftKings ($4,300). He has played well in his last three starts, averaging 24 fantasy points per contest. He will draw another start tonight with Kyle Korver out.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder will be without Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Enes Kanter tonight. I can’t wait to watch Russell Westbrook in this one. The Thunder are projected to score 105 points tonight against the Hawks and you know Westbrook is going to be responsible for a ton of those points, whether he is scoring or racking up assists. Steven Adams, Mitch McGary, and Nick Collison will all be asked to log heavy minutes tonight against the Hawks.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 53-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13200, DK: $12500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 37.4)
Westbrook has a usage rate of 37.4 this season. That number is only going to go up tonight, as the Thunder will be without three of their best players in Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Enes Kanter. Westbrook is going to have to take over tonight, something that he is very good at. His price point should scare some people off of him, but he’s clearly the top overall fantasy option on the board tonight. A 40/10/10 line is not out of the question.
Steven Adams (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Adams has scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last four games with Serge Ibaka out of the lineup. Now that Enes Kanter has been ruled out as well, Adams should play 35+ minutes tonight and he’ll likely have a slightly bigger role offensively. It’s hard to pass up on the value that he provides at center.
Mitch McGary (FD: $3500, DK: $3800 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
The Thunder have not announced who will start in place of Enes Kanter, but McGary will be asked to log heavy minutes tonight, even if he does come off the bench. At his price point, he is one of the top value plays on the board tonight. A double-double is certainly attainable for McGary tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dion Waiters and Nick Collison are both decent punt options at their respective positions.
Memphis at Dallas – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Memphis | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.26 | Team Pace | 96.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 14 | Opp. Season | 6 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | |
Memphis
Mike Conley is questionable once again, as the Grizzlies head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. If he is forced to sit out, Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes would both split the minutes at point guard. While the matchup against the Mavericks is a decent one, there aren’t any options that really stand out on the Grizzlies tonight. I will likely avoid the Grizzlies on a night with such a full slate of games.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 44-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Dallas
The Mavericks have won three games in a row and are now tied for the fifth seed in the Western Conference. They are listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight against the Grizzlies at home. While the Mavericks may be favored, this is not a matchup that we should be targeting in daily fantasy. The Grizzlies are a slow-paced team that has held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 47-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at San Antonio – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9.5, 208 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Boston | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.48 | Team Pace | 95.9 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 20 | 23 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 5 | |
Boston
The Celtics draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. Not only do they have to face the Spurs, but they have to face them in San Antonio. The Celtics are 9.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 99 points. Isaiah Thomas will not play tonight, which solidifies the minutes for Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner. That said, all Celtics’ players can be avoided tonight in what could turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 42-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing their third game in four nights. They are also 9.5-point favorites at home. This is the perfect situation for Coach Popovich to give his starters some rest. Even if the Spurs roll out their usual starting five, I’m not confident that they are going to see their usual complement of minutes. There is always risk attached with the Spurs and on a night with ten other games on the schedule, why take the chance?
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 30-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -3, 206 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Hollins
| Charlotte | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.43 | Team Pace | 97.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | Ryan Hollins | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 13 | 20 | 27 | Opp. Season | 9 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 18 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 21 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have lost two in a row and are currently a half game behind the Pacers and Celtics for the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have a good chance of picking up a road win tonight, as they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings. This is a terrific matchup for fantasy production, as the Kings are ranked 29th in points allowed per game this season. The Hornets are projected to score 104.5 points tonight, which is ten points more than their average on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 22-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8000, DK: $6900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Even though the matchup is great, Jefferson is still a secondary option tonight against the Kings. With Hassan Whiteside and Steven Adams in such great spots, it’s hard not to take one of those two players in cash games. Jefferson is a nice way to differentiate your lineup though. He has a great matchup against the Kings, who may be without DeMarcus Cousins.
Marvin Williams (FD: $4200, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Williams is a serviceable punt play tonight, but again, there are better options at his price point. Mitch McGary is actually cheaper than Williams and he offers similar upside. Williams has scored at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last four games though and he also draws favorable matchup against the Kings.
Sacramento
The Kings have lost four games in a row and eight of their last ten. They have nothing to play for at this point in the season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they decide to hold DeMarcus Cousins (questionable) out again tonight. The Kings’ matchup against the Hornets is a tough one, as they are ranked fifth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 29-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8300, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Gay is a borderline elite play if DeMarcus Cousins sits out tonight’s game against the Hornets. Gay would see a boost in usage and he would really be their first, second, and third option offensively. He does draw a tough matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist though, who wants to go down as the greatest defender of all time.
TBD – Jason Thompson, Ray McCallum, and Ben McLemore would all see an uptick in minutes and/or usage if DeMarcus Cousins is unable to play tonight.