NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 27th - Page Three
Dallas at San Antonio – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Dallas | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.03 | Team Pace | 96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 16 | Opp. Season | 22 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 29 | 4 | 29 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 12 | 17 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks took out the Spurs at home on Tuesday night, but now have to face them in San Antonio. Vegas is expecting a much different result this time around, as the Mavericks are listed as 9.5-point underdogs. The Mavericks are already a tough team to target in daily fantasy and a matchup against the Spurs in San Antonio doesn’t help. The Spurs are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Like the Seahawks on the one-yard line in the Super Bowl, I’ll pass.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 45-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games and are only a half-game behind the Blazers for the fourth seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs seem to do this every year. They turn it on at the end of the season, after taking a few months off. The Spurs look primed for another long postseason run, especially if they are able to get home-court advantage in the first round. The Spurs are large favorites tonight at home against the Mavericks.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 45-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8600, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Leonard has been one of the most productive players in the league in recent weeks. In his last ten games, he has averaged 38 fantasy points in only 33 minutes of action per game. He is the one Spurs’ player that is regularly seeing minutes in the 30’s and he’s the one Spurs’ player that is a safe target in cash games. Leonard has scored at least 35 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. Leonard had 44 fantasy points against this same Mavericks’ team on Tuesday night.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $7500, DK: $6900) and Tony Parker (FD: $5800, DK: $5900) are both secondary options tonight against the Mavericks. Both players are in favorable matchups, but they are veterans playing for coach Popovich, which makes them risky plays in cash games.
Utah at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -1.5, 189.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
| Utah | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.5 |  | Vegas Total | 189.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.38 | Team Pace | 98.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 23 | Opp. Season | 5 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 30 | 18 | 27 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 6 | |
Utah
This is a very interesting game, as it is a battle between two completely different teams. The Jazz play at a slow pace and own the best defense in the NBA. The Nuggets play at a fast pace and have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. We can safely give a sizable boost to the Jazz as a whole. The Nuggets are ranked 23rd or worse against shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 27-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Targeting bigs against the Nuggets is one of my favorite matchups to exploit in daily fantasy basketball. They don’t know how to defend the paint and they aren’t going to learn anytime soon. Gobert has incredible upside in this matchup. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. I see that as his floor tonight, with a ceiling that is much, much higher.
Derrick Favors (FD: $7900, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
As mentioned with Gobert, the Nuggets have one of the worst interior defenses in the entire NBA. It’s been this way for years. Favors is a terrific fantasy option tonight. He has scored at least 41 fantasy points in each of his last three games and he has a great chance of keeping that streak alive tonight against a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked dead last against power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Denver
The Nuggets draw the worst matchup on the board tonight. The Jazz are the slowest-paced team in the NBA and they are ranked number one in points allowed per game. They are also ranked second in rebounding differential this season. The Nuggets are only projected to score 95.5 points tonight, which is markedly lower than their average on the season. The Nuggets can safely be avoided in all contests tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 31-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 95 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -1, 204.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
| Portland | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1 | Vegas Sprd | 1 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.75 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.33 | Team Pace | 99.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 20 | 24 | 8 | 18 | Opp. Season | 26 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 26 | 20 | 11 | 18 | |
Portland
LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and Chris Kaman are all probable for tonight’s game against the Suns. This is an important game for both teams, as the Blazers are fighting for home-court advantage and the Suns are fighting for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Suns are one of the better matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 22nd in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 38-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9700, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge may be a little over-priced on FanDuel, but he certainly deserves consideration on DraftKings at a price of $8,700. He roughly needs 42 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he is certainly capable of. Aldridge has averaged 42.6 fantasy points per game this season and he had a respectable 19/13/2 line against the Suns in his first meeting against them this season.
Damian Lillard (FD: $8800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
On any other night, Lillard would be considered an elite play. His price is affordable, he has been playing well, and he draws a fantastic matchup against the Suns. The issue is that there are better plays at the position in terms of value. I’m taking the value route at point guard tonight, but will have some exposure to Lillard in my tournament lineups.
Phoenix
Brandon Knight is once again a game-time decision. We likely aren’t going to know his status in time for early lock sites, which makes it tough to target any of the Suns’ players tonight. It also doesn’t help that they are facing a Blazers’ team that is ranked 10th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Brandon Knight and Marcus Morris could both be in play if Knight is unable to suit up, but that likely limits their appeal to late-swap sites only.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 45-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None