NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 27th - Page Two
Boston at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -9.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
| Boston | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 92.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.39 | Team Pace | 93.46 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 25 | Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 20 | 21 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 14 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 9 | 21 | 13 | 28 | |
Boston
The Celtics suffered a bad loss to the short-handed Heat on Wednesday, but they are still a half game ahead of three teams for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics should be able to bounce back tonight against a Knicks’ team that has absolutely nothing to play for at this point in the season. The Knicks have been so bad that everyone is asking if Kentucky could beat them. It’s a legitimate question, as the Knicks have very few active players that would even make most NBA team’s rosters. Anyway, with Isaiah Thomas back in the lineup, the Celtics can safely be avoided tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-58
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
New York
The Knicks have lost five games in a row and are having trouble keeping games competitive. They are short-handed and have little motivation to play well at this point in the season. They draw an appealing matchup against the Celtics, but it’s hard to trust any Knicks’ player in cash games or tournaments. Shane Larkin and Langston Galloway will both log heavy minutes with Alexey Shved out, but there are better value options at point guard tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 31-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Lakers at Toronto – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -9, 203.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Clarkson-Johnson-Kelly-Black
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| L.A. Lakers | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.54 | Team Pace | 95.7 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Jordan Clarkson | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Season | 30 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 24 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers will be without Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill tonight, which solidifies the minutes for Ryan Kelly and Tarik Black down low. The Lakers are 9-point underdogs against the Raptors, but they are actually a decent team to target for the first time in months. The Raptors are a favorable matchup to target, as they are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 42-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Jeremy Lin (FD: $5600, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21)
Lin sat the entire 4th quarter and overtime against the Wolves on Wednesday night. It was a bit strange considering the impact that he had on the game in the first three quarters. He finished with 19 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists. Lin has scored 29+ fantasy points in back-to-back games and should see 30+ minutes of action tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season. He offers great upside at his price point and is one of the top value plays at point guard.
Secondary Plays
Tarik Black (FD: $4000, DK: $3800 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
With Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill both out, I project Black to play around 30 minutes tonight against the Raptors. The matchup may not be all that appealing, but Black is cheap across the industry and he has played well recently. Over his last four games, he has averaged 22 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest.
Ryan Kelly (FD: $3800, DK: $3200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Kelly is also in play as a power forward punt tonight. Since joining the starting lineup, he has scored 31 and 28 fantasy points. Two games isn’t enough to rely on him for the same type of production tonight, but this may be the last opportunity to target him at this price point.
Toronto
The Raptors will be without Kyle Lowry tonight, as they host the Lakers. The Raptors are still large favorites without him, as the spread is currently set at nine points. The Raptors draw one of the most favorable matchups in all of daily fantasy, as the Lakers are a fast-paced team that has allowed the third-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 19-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7700, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
With Kyle Lowry out tonight, DeRozan should see an uptick in usage in the Raptors’ offense. He already has a high usage rate of 28.3 and he’ll have plenty of scoring chances tonight with Lowry out. DeRozan has scored at least 37 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 23rd against shooting guards this season.
Lou Williams (FD: $4700, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Williams may be the biggest beneficiary in Kyle Lowry’s absence. When Lowry is out of the lineup, Williams sees an uptick in both minutes and usage. Williams has only topped 20 fantasy points in two of his last six games, but he could see upward of 30 minutes tonight against the Lakers. Williams deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Greivis Vasquez (FD: $3900, DK: $4400 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21)
Vasquez is one of the many value options at point guard tonight. He’s right there with Jeremy Lin, Zach LaVine, and Dennis Schroder as the top value plays on the board. Vasquez is coming off of an impressive 29 fantasy point outing against the Bulls. He should keep it going against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -6.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Gay-Cousins
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Sacramento | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.05 | Team Pace | 93.92 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 10 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 11 | 20 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 22 | 16 | 21 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 13 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have won four games in a row, behind the solid play of both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. They have no chance of making the playoffs, but they can play the role of spoiler tonight against the Pelicans. The Kings are listed as 6.5-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of 205.5 points. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, as the Pelicans are right around the league average in points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 37-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11100, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
Cousins’ price has come way up on FanDuel, but he’s still listed under $10,000 on DraftKings. The $1,500 price disparity between sites makes him an elite play on one and a secondary option on the other. Cousins has averaged 48.5 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. While he does draw a tough matchup against Omer Asik, he is about as matchup-proof of a player as you will find in daily fantasy.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8600, DK: $7700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Gay is also cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. At his price point, I’d rather target Kawhi Leonard, but Gay is still worth a look tonight against the Pelicans. He has also played well over his last five games, averaging 38 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. I’m not too concerned about the matchup against Anthony Davis, as I expect the Kings to go big to match up with New Orleans.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have lost four games in a row and are now three and a half games behind the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They need to go on a run to close the season if they are to have any chance of making the playoffs. That run could start tonight against the Kings. The Pelicans are sizable favorites against a team that has allowed the second-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 26-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $12400, DK: $11200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon are decent tournament options, but Davis is really the only Pelicans’ player that is on my radar tonight. Davis has been on a tear over his last six games, averaging 56 fantasy points per contest. The most glaring statistic during that stretch is the fact that he has averaged more than 40 minutes per game. There is enough value out there to easily fit Davis into your lineups, making him a very tough fade in cash games. Even if he only gives us 50 fantasy points, the value on the board should be able to make up for the difference in his expected value.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota at Houston – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -13, 206 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brown-Wiggins-Payne-Dieng
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Minnesota | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.12 | Team Pace | 99.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Lorenzo Brown | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 20 | Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 14 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are expected to be without Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Gary Neal, and Kevin Garnett tonight. Kevin Martin is listed as questionable, but all signs are pointing to him sitting out tonight as well. That means that we will continue to see a ton of minutes for the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Zach LaVine, and Chase Budinger. Even in a potential blowout against the Rockets, all four deserve consideration tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 48-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
With all of the injuries to the Wolves, Wiggins should push for 40+ minutes tonight against the Rockets. He is also going to have a very high usage rate in the offense. The expected minutes and usage is a lethal fantasy combination for Wiggins. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season. It also helps that his price has come down to a very affordable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Zach LaVine (FD: $5100, DK: $5300 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
LaVine will likely draw another start at point guard tonight with Ricky Rubio doubtful. LaVine draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Rockets, who will be withouth Patrick Beverley. Jason Terry is not an elite defender at this point in his career. LaVine comes into this game playing some great basketball, averaging 28 fantasy points in 40 minutes per game over his last four outings. He is one of the top value plays on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
Chase Budinger (FD: $4700, DK: $4500 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 16)
Budinger is still coming off the bench, but he is playing starter’s minutes thanks to all of the Wolves’ injuries. Over his last six games, he has averaged 28 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. There is no reason to think that he won’t see around 35 minutes again tonight, regardless of the game’s outcome. He makes for a terrific value play at small forward.
Houston
The Rockets will be without Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones tonight, but they will have the rest of their starters against the Wolves. Dwight Howard be on a 20-minute limit, which means we should stay far away from him for fantasy purposes. The Rockets draw a fantastic matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA this season. The big concern here is a potential blowout, as the Rockets are listed as 13-point favorites.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-55
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11500, DK: $11600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
Harden is a borderline elite play tonight. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because he plays shooting guard, which is typically one of the thinnest positions in daily fantasy basketball. Harden has incredible upside in this matchup, as the Wolves are ranked 24th against shooting guards this season. The only question is whether or not the Wolves will be able keep tonight’s game within striking distance. If not, Harden will likely find himself on the bench for the entire fourth quarter.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5800, DK: $6200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Ariza is typically my go-to play at small forward when I need a player in that mid-range of pricing on FanDuel. Ariza has been playing well recently, averaging 33 fantasy point per game over his last six outings. During that stretch, he has topped the 30 fantasy point mark five times.
Golden State at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -3.5, 198 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Golden State | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.63 | Team Pace | 94.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
Golden State
The Warriors head to Memphis to square off against the Grizzlies. This will be a battle between two of the West’s best, but it lacks fantasy appeal. I’ll certainly have this game on, but I’ll likely have no rooting interest, as I will be fading this game in fantasy. The Grizzlies are a difficult matchup, as they play at a very slow pace and have held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 50-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $9400) and Draymond Green (FD: $7600, DK: $7500) are both secondary options tonight against the Grizzlies. Both players may see an uptick in minutes in what should be a close game, but both are tournament plays at best.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are looking to bounce back after getting blown off their home floor by the Cavaliers on Wednesday night. The level of competition for tonight won’t get any easier, as the Warriors own the best record in the entire NBA. The Warriors play at a very fast pace, but they are ranked number one in defensive efficiency this season. With 12 other games on the schedule tonight, there are better matchups to exploit.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 58-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7800, DK: $7500) and Zach Randolph (FD: $8000, DK: $7300) are both secondary options against the Warriors. This should be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies, but neither player stands out as a must start tonight.