NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 6th - Page Two
Phoenix at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Tucker
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Anderson-Brown-Plumlee
| Phoenix | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.00 | Team Proj. | 105.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.54 | Team Pace | 94.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Markel Brown | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 26 | 10 | 25 | 15 | Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 26 | 8 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 14 | 20 | 27 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 14 | |
Phoenix
The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games and do not appear to be a playoff-bound team. While that has to be frustrating for Suns’ fans, they are still one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at an extremely fast pace and rarely play any defense. The total for tonight’s game against the Nets is set at 208.5 points, which means both teams are projected for well over 100 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 25-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
I made the mistake of trusting Alex Len the other night against the Magic. He’s a too prone to foul trouble to trust in cash games on nights that have a full slate of games. Morris is the preferred play in the Suns’ front-court tonight. He has tremendous upside and a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 25th against power forwards this season.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.2)
Tucker quietly goes about his business, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. He has been a terrific mid-range option at small forward during that stretch and there is no reason to think that it won’t continue tonight against the Nets. His price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him though, which is why he is listed as a secondary play.
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games and are now a full game behind the Hornets for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They could really use a win tonight against the Suns. This is one of the best matchups on the board, as the Suns have allowed the third-most points per game this season. The Nets are projected to score 105.5 points tonight, which is nine points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 32-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Even with Jarrett Jack back in the lineup, Williams has kept his spot in the starting lineup thanks to his stellar play. Over his last seven games, he has scored at least 31 fantasy points five times. His price is still affordable across the industry and he finds himself in a terrific matchup against the Suns, who have fallen apart defensively. Williams should have his fingerprints all over this game and is a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 200.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Turner-Crowder-Bass-Zeller
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Boston | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.00 | Vegas Sprd | -7.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.75 | Team Proj. | 103.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.57 | Team Pace | 93.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 11 | Opp. Season | 19 | 2 | 24 | 26 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 23 | 15 | 10 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 25 | |
Boston
The Celtics will be without Avery Bradley for tonight’s game against the Pelicans. Evan Turner and Jae Crowder will be the biggest beneficiaries in his absence. The Celtics are 7-point underdogs against the Pelicans, who now have their MVP-candidate back in the lineup.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 33-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Turner may not be the most reliable option for cash games, but he offers terrific upside at his price. He should also see a small boost with Avery Bradley out of the lineup. Turner is an excellent play in tournaments tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 18th against shooting guards this season.
Jae Crowder (FD: $4900, DK: $4900 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Crowder has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, topping the 30 fantasy point mark four times during that stretch. He will likely draw the start tonight at small forward, which would only solidify his minutes in the rotation.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have won six of their last ten games, they have their superstar back in the lineup, and they can pull even with the Thunder with a win tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who play at a very fast pace. The Celtics have allowed the sixth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 24-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $10800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 27.2)
Davis wasted little time getting acclimated in his first game back from his shoulder injury. He posted a ridiculous stat line of 39 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 8 blocks, and 3 steals against the Pistons on Wednesday night. In case you were wondering, that equates to 79.7 fantasy points on FanDuel. If you are paying up for a superstar tonight, Davis is the top option, as he should dominate the weak interior of the Celtics.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8300, DK: $7400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Evans is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. He typically wouldn’t be on my radar with Anthony Davis back, but $7,400 is just too cheap for a player with his type of upside. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last eight games and should continue that streak tonight against the Celtics.
Detroit at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -7, 203 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
| Detroit | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7 | Vegas Sprd | -7 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98 | Team Proj. | 105 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.64 | Team Pace | 98.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tayshaun Prince | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 18 | Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 21 | 28 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 5 | 21 | 29 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 30 | 16 | |
Detroit
The Pistons are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. They have lost four in a row and are now three and half games behind the eighth-seeded Hornets. They desperately need a win, but will have a tough time picking up one against the Rockets in Houston. The Pistons are 7-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 203 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 41-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
While I’d love to use Drummond in cash games tonight, I just can’t let myself do it. I’ve been burned by him way too many times in the past. He has been on a tear recently though, scoring at least 38 fantasy points five times in his last nine games. He will find himself on quite a few of my tournament lineups, as the Rockets don’t have anyone that can keep him off the glass.
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6400, DK: $6600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
This pick hinges on the availability of Patrick Beverley. If Beverley plays, Jackson is a secondary option tonight. If he sits, Jackson would become a borderline elite play. Jackson has averaged 32.3 fantasy points per game since joining the Pistons and he has yet to find his shot. Once he does, he will have a breakout outing, which come come tonight against a Beverley-less Rockets’ team.
Houston
The Rockets have lost two games in a row, but they should be able to bounce back tonight against the Pistons. They are sizable favorites at home. There are two players that we need to monitor as it gets closer to tip-off. Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are both questionable for this game. Jason Terry, Donatas Motiejunas, and Josh Smith would be the biggest beneficiaries if they are forced to sit.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $10400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Harden is the premier play tonight at shooting guard and it’s not even close. He has been on a tear with Dwight Howard out of the lineup, averaging 46 fantasy points per game over his last seven outings. Harden may have an even bigger responsibility on offense if Patrick Beverley and/or Terrence Jones are forced from tonight’s game against the Nets. I still prefer Anthony Davis as the top superstar tonight, but you may be able to fit both in your lineup.
Secondary Plays
TBD – Josh Smith and Donatas Motiejunas would both become viable plays if Terrence Jones is unable to suit up.
Editor’s Note: Jones is “good to go” tonight according to Houston coach Kevin McHale.
Miami at Washington – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -4, 194.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Miami | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.00 | Vegas Sprd | -4.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.25 | Team Proj. | 99.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.66 | Team Pace | 95.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | Opp. Season | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 7 | 18 | 14 | 21 | |
Miami
The Heat have won two in a row and are currently locked into the seventh-seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Wizards in Washington. The Heat are listed as 4-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 95 points. The Wizards have played at a quicker pace recently, but they are still a top ten defense.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 34-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7600, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He also has one of the highest usage rates of any player in the NBA. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup. The Wizards are ranked fourth against shooting guards this season.
Editor’s Note: Wade is OUT for tonight’s game.
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8700, DK: $8800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Whiteside is coming off of a monster 18-point, 25-rebound, and 5-block performance against the Lakers. While I still love the upside that he provides, he draws a much tougher matchup against Marcin Gortat and the Wizards. Whiteside still deserves consideration in tournaments, but his price is too expensive to target in cash games.
Washington
The Wizards have lost seven of their last ten games and are getting little love from the oddsmakers tonight. If this game was being played a month ago, the Wizards would have been double-digit favorites. Tonight they are only 4-point favorites at home against the Heat. The Heat present a mediocre matchup at best. They are still one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 27-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Gortat has been tremendous over his last six games, averaging 35 fantasy points per contest. His price on FanDuel has yet to reflect Gortat’s recent level of production, giving us one more opportunity to buy low on the “Polish Hammer.” At $5,500, I like his chances to reach 5x-6x salary, even in a tough matchup against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat.
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Wall is coming off of a big outing against the Wizards. He was very aggressive in the second half of that game and hopefully that is a sign of things to come. Wall’s price is still depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s an appealing option tonight against the Heat if you are looking to spend up at the point guard position.
L.A. Lakers at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -11.5, 195 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Boozer-Sacre
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| L.A. Lakers | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.8 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.91 | Team Pace | 94.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Carlos Boozer | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Season | 30 | 21 | 19 | 12 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 28 | 6 | 19 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 27 | 12 | 18 | 30 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have lost three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They have been playing better recently, but it hasn’t translated into many wins. They have a tough task ahead of them tonight, as they are 11.5-point underdogs against the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Grizzlies are a slow-paced team that is ranked first in point allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 43-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeremy Lin (FD: $5400, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
There is more hype around LINSANITY than there has been in years. While I always cheer for Lin to do well, I have a feeling that his bubble may burst tonight against the Grizzlies. He has averaged 42 fantasy points per game over his last three, but I’ll pass on his matchup against Mike Conley and company.
Memphis
The Grizzlies draw one of the best matchups on tonight’s schedule, but this game has the potential to turn into a blowout, which always complicates things. The Lakers are ranked dead last in points allowed per game this season, but again, the starters may end up sitting out the entire fourth quarter. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are both fine options at their respective positions, but I’ll likely be avoiding both in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 16-44
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $3700, DK: $3300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Lee is the one Grizzlies’ player that is on my radar tonight. He is extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and would reach value by scoring only 20 fantasy points. He’s more than capable of that against the Lakers, who are ranked 21st against shooting guards this season.