NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successfulmo daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS NBA news.
Chicago at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -6, 186.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Chicago | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186.5 |  | Vegas Total | 186.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.3 | Team Proj. | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.50 | Team Pace | 95.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 10 | Opp. Season | 18 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 12 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights. With all of their injuries, they have to be playing on tired legs. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson are all expected to miss tonight’s game against the Pacers. On paper, this is not a great matchup for the Bulls. The Pacers are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and seventh in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 26-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $4500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
All of the Bulls’ injuries have cleared the way for big playing time for Mirotic. Over his last three games, he has played at least 30 minutes and has scored at least 33 fantasy points in each outing. He’ll be asked to play big minutes again tonight against the Pacers. While the matchup is less than ideal, Mirotic is still a strong play given his increased role on the team.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4500, DK: $5400 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
With Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler out, Brooks has become a much bigger part of the Bulls offense. His results have been mixed in his first few starts, but Brooks is a terrific scorer with great upside. He should see around 30 minutes of playing time tonight against the Pacers and is still affordably priced on most sites across the industry.
Secondary Plays
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $3900, DK: $3600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Dunleavy is one of the top value plays at small forward tonight. His playing time has increased with all of the injuries and his price is under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dunleavy has averaged 23.2 fantasy points over his last four games and would easily exceed value if he can put up a similar outing tonight against the Pacers.
Indiana
The Pacers are making some noise in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt. They have won games three in a row and eight of their last ten. They are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Bulls in a game that features a low total of 186.5 points. The total should scare most people away from this game, but there are a couple of options that deserve consideration tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 39-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $6400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Hill is finally seeing a full complement of minutes as the starting point guard of the Pacers. He’s made the most of his increased playing time, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he has a much bigger role in the offense this season with a usage rate of 25.7. He’ll be a tough cover for the much smaller Aaron Brooks.
Secondary Plays
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 23)
Stuckey has embraced his role off the bench and it has shown in his recent fantasy production. Over his last six games, he has averaged 30.8 fantasy points per contest. He will not be on many people’s radar tonight, making him an intriguing tournament play against the Bulls.
Sacramento at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -1, 202 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Dedmon-Vucevic
| Sacramento | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.76 | Team Pace | 95.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Dewayne Dedmon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 25 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 11 | 28 | 5 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 13 | 18 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have been involved in two straight blowouts, being on each side once. After crushing the Knicks in New York, they were blown out by the Spurs in San Antonio. The blowouts have really limited the starter’s minutes, but that shouldn’t be a problem tonight, as they head to Orlando to take on the Magic. The Kings are 1-point favorites in a game that features a total of 201 points. This matchup isn’t as favorable as it once was, but the Magic still present us with an above average matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 19-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10600, DK: $9500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Cousins has played less than 30 minutes in each of his last four games. Expect that trend to end tonight against the Magic, in what is expected to be a competitive game throughout. Cousins’ price has come down, which provides us with a terrific buy low opportunity. Cousins draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Magic are ranked 25th against centers and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
Ray McCallum (FD: $4500, DK: $3800 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 18)
Given his inconsistent minutes and production, McCallum is not a recommended cash game play. He does offer great upside at his price point though, especially on DraftKings. McCallum is coming off of an impressive 33 fantasy point outing against the Spurs and the Magic have struggled to contain opposing point guards this season.
Orlando
The Magic are looking to end their four-game slide tonight, as they host the Sacramento Kings. While the Kings are a very good rebounding team, they really struggle defensively. They are ranked 27th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 21-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $7200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Oladipo is coming off of a career performance against the Suns. He finished the game with 38 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists. He has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, making him a strong play in all league formats. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris (FD: $6300, DK: $6300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Harris has only topped 30 fantasy points one time in his last five games. While that’s not promising, Harris is too talented not to break out soon. He is one of the toughest players to stop in the open floor and as I’ve mentioned above, the Kings have really struggled defensively this season.
Utah at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Utah -6.5, 184.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Richardson-Sampson-Noel-SIms
| Utah | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 184.5 |  | Vegas Total | 184.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 89.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.77 | Team Pace | 98.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jason Richardson | Jakarr Sampson | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 29 | 17 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Season | 7 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 4 | |
Utah
The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season. While they fell just short the other night against the Celtics, they have still won seven of their last ten games. The Jazz are listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Sixers with their team total set at 95.5 points. This is a terrific matchup, as the Sixers are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 13-48
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
As I always like to say, Gobert or go home! He has been on a tear over his last his last seven games, averaging 37 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. His offense is still limited, but he’s one of the best rebounders and shot blockers in the NBA. That bodes well for his matchup tonight against the Sixers, who have the second-worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season.
Derrick Favors (FD: $7500, DK: $7600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23)
Favors has played well recently, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. His low output during that stretch was 25 fantasy points. With his minutes solidified since the trade, Favors has been able to offer both a high floor and a high ceiling, making him an appealing play in all league formats. He should be able to rack up the fantasy points against the Sixers, who don’t rebound or defend well.
Secondary Plays
Trey Burke (FD: $5800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Burke is still coming off of the bench, but he is the point guard of the Jazz. He is seeing starter’s minutes and he has been very productive recently, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. His price may be a little high on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $4,500 on DraftKings.
Philadelphia
The Sixers almost picked up an upset win over the Thunder on Wednesday night, but eventually fell short in overtime. They have now lost eight of their last ten games. They are sizable underdogs at home tonight against the Jazz. This is not an appealing matchup for fantasy purposes, as the Jazz play at the second-slowest pace and have held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 24-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7000, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Noel has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 33 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He has been able to stay out of foul trouble and he’s one of the few players in the NBA that can score double-digit fantasy points from blocks and steals alone. The issue here is that his price has come up. It’s tough to overpay for Noel in a tough matchup against the Jazz.
Jason Richardson (FD: $4600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Richardson posted a terrific stat line of 29 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists against the Thunder. What may have been most impressive was that he was able to log 39 minutes. He should push for around 30 minutes tonight against the Jazz. He’s an excellent value play if you are looking for some salary cap relief at shooting guard.
Toronto at Charlotte – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -1, 199 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Toronto | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.84 | Team Pace | 95.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 5 | Opp. Season | 22 | 10 | 28 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 24 | 30 | 8 | 9 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have lost six of their last ten games and are now only one game ahead of the Cavaliers in the loss column. It appears like it’s only a matter of time before they drop to the four seed in the East. The good news is that Kyle Lowry went though shoot-around this morning and is tentatively expected to play tonight. Since the news about Lowry came out, the line has moved and the Raptors are now 1-point favorites tonight. With Lowry back in the lineup, it may be a good time to avoid the Raptors altogether, as the Hornets play at a slow pace and own a top ten defense.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 26-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte
Kyle Lowry isn’t the only point guard that was hoping to return from an injury tonight. Kemba Walker had today targeted for his return, but it sounds like the Hornets will hold him out for at least one more game. Mo Williams’ fantasy appeal will go down once Walker returns to the lineup, but that won’t be for at least one more game.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 38-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $7400, DK: $7300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Williams will have at least one more game with the elite play tag attached to his name. He has been terrific since joining the Hornets, as he has scored at least 37 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He should continue his excellent play tonight against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8100, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Kemba Walker is not going to play tonight, which means Jefferson will still be the focal point of the Hornets’ offense. He has been on a tear over his last nine games, averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. His price on FanDuel is appropriate, but he is still underpriced on DraftKings at $7,600. He should have another productive outing tonight and he has a good chance to reach the double-double bonus.
Cleveland at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Cleveland | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.91 | Team Pace | 96.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 8 | Opp. Season | 9 | 22 | 23 | 14 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 22 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 29 | 19 | 3 | 26 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers continue to climb the standings in the Eastern Conference. When all is said and done, they will likely have the two seed locked up, as they should be able to catch the Bulls and the Raptors. The Cavaliers draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hawks, who have held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season. This game should be close throughout though and starters from both teams may see extended action in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 48-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11200, DK: $10500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 33.5)
On nights that feature a full slate like tonight, there is usually only one Cavaliers’ player that is on my radar. And no, it’s not Shawn Marion. James has been dominant over his last ten games. The only issue has been his limited playing time, as the Cavaliers have been on the winning end of quite a few blowouts. That shouldn’t be a problem tonight, as the Cavaliers are only 1.5-point favorites against the Hawks.
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta
The Hawks will look to extend their ten game lead over the Cavaliers tonight. They have all but locked up the one seed in the Eastern Conference, but this game still means a lot to both teams. They both want to send a message that they are the team to beat in the East. This should be a fantastic game to watch, but it is void of fantasy appeal. The Cavaliers have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA over the last month of play.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 39-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Millsap is the one Hawks’ player that is on my radar tonight. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in four of his last five games and he draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Love, who has never been known as an elite defender. Millsap’s price is depressed on FanDuel, which also helps. He needs roughly 37 fantasy points to reach value tonight on FanDuel.