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NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 12th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-13 02:55:28

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – Friday, 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total 216.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

People often praise Boston for their depth and it showed on Wednesday. After jumping out to a 12-point lead in the first quarter, Boston started the second with bench players Jaylen Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, and starter Jae Crowder. Not only did they hold the lead, but they went on a 15-5 run in the first five minutes. The same bench guys started the fourth with Isaiah Thomas in place of Crowder and went on an 11-0 run within the first three minutes. Due to the blowout, Jaylen Brown accumulated 26 minutes on the court, which tied with Smart for the most off the bench. They were followed by Rozier (21) and Olynyk (16). Brown didn’t score a single point, but through peripherals finished with 10.75 DK points. Brown hasn’t played too much this postseason (99.1 minutes), but he may have earned a bigger workload through his solid play. The issue is what he brought to the game yesterday didn’t show up in the box score. Plus, in a competitive game, he wouldn’t have received so much time on the floor. He can be considered a GPP dart throw if anticipating another lopsided game, as he played the entire fourth quarter, but he doesn’t offer much upside and he’s only averaging 0.68 DK ppm in the playoffs.

Brown’s presence in the rotation throws some things off for other guys. Most notably, Marcus Smart wasn’t the first one off the bench and he only picked up 16 minutes through the first three quarters, adding ten in the fourth frame after most of the starters had checked out for the night. He ended up with a very nice outing, doing most of his damage through peripherals (11 rebounds, and six assists) – he continues to have a solid floor despite scoring just nine points for the fourth-straight game. If Brown and Rozier remain this involved in the rotation, Smart’s workload won’t be as secure as it has been in recent games. It didn’t help him that Amir Johnson stuck around for 18 minutes, tying his personal high for the postseason. Johnson finished with eight points and five rebounds. It doesn’t seem like he’ll be crossing the 20-minute mark, but he could continue to pick up big stints at the beginning of the first and third quarters. He still isn’t a particularly appealing option, but on FanDuel there are very few options at power forwards. With Johnson picking up a larger workload, Olynyk didn’t play too much. He continued to be a solid per-minute man, scoring 18.5 DK points in 16 minutes, but his upside is capped with his current role.

Rozier earned nine of his minutes after most of the starters were done for the night. With a nine-man rotation, there isn’t a ton of minutes to go to the four bench guys unless they’re getting a bunch of action in garbage time. He’ll certainly be involved in the offense, he checked in for a ten-minute stint overlapping the first and the second, but it won’t be enough for him to be a great fantasy asset. There are enough point guard options to not have to worry about him.

As mentioned, Boston’s primary guys were limited; only Isaiah Thomas played in the fourth quarter. Avery Bradley and Al Horford were the stars of the group. Bradley was on fire from the beginning and ended up with 29 points on 19 shots. Fortunately, the hip pointers he suffered in Games 2 and 4 don’t seem to be much of a concern. That means we can expect him to play a ton of minutes and if he continues his aggressive style of play, he’ll be a clear step ahead of Smart and Crowder. Horford continues to impress across the board; he was 8-for-9 from the floor (18 points total), hauled in six rebounds, contributed seven assists, and stuffed three shots. He’s been fantastic this postseason and he’ll continue to be a top target.

With Bradley and Horford scoring so much, there was little need for Thomas to enter takeover mode, although he picked up nine assists along the way. He finished with 13 FGAs and 18 points. That marks the third straight game he’s been held under 20 points. However, if we can get a close game, there’s little doubt he’ll turn up the scoring in a contest that could seal a trip to the Eastern Conference finals.
Crowder matched Thomas with 18 points, although ten of them came in the second quarter when he was afforded a six-minute stint with bench guys in the second. He’s now averaging 0.83 DK ppm and he’s produced at least 29.25 DK points in four-straight games. In a competitive matchup, he’ll pick up plenty of time on the floor – he had just 26 in Game 5.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 $9,200 1.19 33.8 1.3 40.4 -3.5 34.9% -2.9% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,000 $5,600 0.84 33.4 1.3 28.1 -2.3 21.5% -1.4% 16 -0.94
Jae Crowder $6,200 $6,100 0.79 32.4 0.5 25.7 1.2 16.9% 0.5% 17 0.03
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,600 0.82 20.1 -9.3 16.5 -9.0 14.3% 3.0% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,100 $7,100 1.00 32.3 1.2 32.2 4.4 21.6% -3.1% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,300 $5,300 0.80 30.4 -0.6 24.2 0.4 20.7% -2.6% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,700 $4,000 0.90 20.5 -1.9 18.5 -1.6 19.5% 0.9% 20 N/A
Terry Rozier $2,500 $3,700 0.74 17.1 0.9 12.7 2.2 18.2% -1.7% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson

Washington Wizards

Unfortunately, Game 5 turned into another lopsided affair, which essentially barred the starters from the fourth quarter. As one might guess from the game flow, Washington shot poorly from the field – 38.5% from the field and 24.1% from three. Beal led the team with 19 FGAs in 35 minutes, but only scored 16 points. The positive takeaway was those shot attempts matched his series-high. As a result, Wall took his fewest attempts (17), although he still dropped 21 points. Most notably, he only contributed four assists after he accumulated 12+ in three of the four previous meetings. That number dipped in part due to poor shooting from his teammates and also because Beal took on some more ball-handling duties leading to a 21.4% assist rate. We should expect a bounce back game from both guys at home tomorrow. Washington has played much better in D.C. in this series and they’re facing elimination. That means Wall should be a usage monster – enabling him to return to an elite assist rate – and when he’s not scoring himself, he should be looking for Beal a ton.

As expected, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre, and Bojan Bogdanovic created their own four-man rotation. Somewhat surprisingly, Bojan entered for Morris ahead of Oubre, who didn’t check in until the second quarter. In a close game, it doesn’t appear either backup will receive enough time on the floor to be useful, even though Scott Brooks will keep them involved in the rotation. At the same time, they’ll still cut into the starters’ minutes. Porter played 25 and Morris received 28, but both of them were held out of the fourth quarter entirely, so we should expect them to enter the low-30s normally. Despite the limitations, they both surpassed 21 DK points and Porter was the best shooter on the team with a 54.5% field goal percentage. His usage remains up from the first round (17.7%) and he’s averaging 11.0 FGAs per game in this series. He remains a nice target at his salary. Morris remains third on the team with a 23.9% usage rate and he’s turning in a solid 1.05 DK ppm against Boston. If we can get a close game, he should be a strong fantasy asset on FD where LaMarcus Aldridge is priced up to $7,800 in a tough spot.

Finally, Ian Mahinmi and Marcin Gortat are in a timeshare. Mahinmi picked up 14 minutes on Wednesday and he could potentially have his minutes restriction removed in Game 6. Either way, Gortat will likely remain in the 20s, reducing his fantasy value. The starting center managed to pull down 11 boards in 25 minutes last game, but only added seven points. It will be hard for him to produce a ton of fantasy points in this situation. If we get word that Mahinmi will play without limitations, he would be an interesting GPP play on FanDuel at $2,300. Although the opportunity cost of missing out on a big game from Horford may be too great, he averaged 15.0 FD points this season in 17.9 minutes per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,600 $10,800 1.24 36.4 1.8 45.3 4.7 34.8% 2.0% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,200 0.94 34.9 3.0 32.9 0.3 26.4% 0.3% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $5,400 $6,600 0.82 32.6 -0.5 26.7 -0.4 14.8% -0.8% 13 1.37
Markieff Morris $5,500 $5,800 0.83 31.2 -4.7 26.1 -2.5 19.8% 1.0% 24 3.79
Marcin Gortat $5,300 $6,000 0.85 31.2 0.7 26.4 1.2 14.7% -2.0% 21 1.59
Kelly Oubre $3,000 $3,900 0.61 20.3 -2.6 12.4 0.8 13.9% 2.9% 13 N/A
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,200 0.75 25.7 -4.7 19.3 -2.4 22.0% -3.3% 13 N/A
Ian Mahinmi $2,300 $2,900 0.84 17.9 -5.7 15.0 -4.6 13.7% -2.1% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – Sunday, 3:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors
sanantonionba Vegas Total 211.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Team Total 100.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM -1.07 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43

San Antonio Spurs

We always hear about Golden State’s offense but their defense has been stellar all season. They were second in defensive rating on the year (101.1) and they were the best team after the break (100.0). In the postseason, the Warriors have taken it to another level, posting a 96.9 rating over their first eight games. Out of the nine five-man lineups they’ve used for at least ten minutes, six of them have a defensive rating of 98.9 or lower. Their starting lineup has turned in a 90.8. After holding opponents to a league-best 43.5% field goal percentage during the regular season, they limited Utah and Portland to a combined 40.7% through the first two rounds. Due to superb defending, they held those opponents to 17.4 assists per game. That could be problematic for a Spurs team that’s struggled to generate assists in the playoffs; their assist percentage has dropped from 60.6% (ninth in the league) to 51.5% (13th among the 16 playoff teams). On the positive side, they were much better in the second round in the category, increasing their assist rate to 58.0% against the Rockets from an abysmal 43.9% against the Grizzlies. However, that number was still below their normal production and they’re supposed to do that against Houston, a team that gave up the fourth-most assists this season.

An area San Antonio may be able to win is on the glass, but it won’t be easy. The Spurs have the second-best rebounding rate of the playoffs (54.0%), just one spot ahead of the Warriors (52.0%). The thing is, San Antonio won their battles against the teams that ranked 16th (Grizzlies, 49.6%) and 17th (49.5%) in the second half of the season whereas the Warriors bested teams ranked third (Utah, 52.5%) and seventh (Portland, 51.3%). Although to be fair, Portland was without Jusuf Nurkic.

Overall, it’s going to be a much tougher matchup, specifically from a fantasy perspective, than Houston. From a win/loss point of view, Vegas clearly favors the Warriors, as they’ve given them a 10.0-point edge at home in Game 1. San Antonio has an implied total of 100.5, 4.8 below their average, although they’ll have another pace-up spot.

Kawhi Leonard is expected to play after missing Game 6 against Houston due to an ankle injury. He’ll obviously carry some added risk because of that. Although his scoring was down in the second round, he delivered excellent peripheral stats. Those improved numbers are in danger here, which makes Kevin Durant an appealing option, particularly on FanDuel, where he’s $1,500 cheaper. However, Leonard’s ownership should be lower than it has been, especially with solid mid-range guys like Jae Crowder and Otto Porter available, and he’s remains of the best players in the game; therefore, he’s a very interesting tournament option. In two meetings with Golden State this season, Leonard took 20 and 21 FGAs; in the first game (which literally took place on the first day of the season), he scored 35, but in the follow-up in March, he struggled to 19 points. He averaged 6.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists across the two contests. Similarly, LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 26 points on 20 shots to open up the year and scored 17 in the rematch. Notably, his rebounds fell from 14 to 7.

After Tony Parker went down against the Rockets, Aldridge stepped up. He took 20 or more shots in three of their last four games. Without Leonard on Thursday, he was dominant, scoring 34 points on 61.5% shooting and added 12 rebounds to make it his second consecutive double-double. This matchup will be different of course, but he should benefit from smaller lineups as he should get some run without their best rebounder, Pau Gasol, who led the Spurs with an 18.6% rebounding rate against Houston. As we saw after Nene was injured, Pop gave plenty of time to Aldridge at the five and limited Gasol in Game 5. He was unable to do as much of that in Game 6 without Leonard. With the star back for Sunday’s matchup, we could see plenty of small lineups with both Leonard and Jonathon Simmons, who replaced Gasol off the bench on four occasions on Tuesday.

Simmons will undoubtedly be popular now that’s turned in 15+ FD points in five straight games, 23+ in three straight, and has carved out a sizable workload for himself. His salary has increased though, he’s now $4,200 on FD and $4,600 on DK. That isn’t prohibitive as he could play into the mid-20s and he averaged 0.82 FD ppm with a 26.8% usage rate in the second round, but paying up for Porter or Crowder certainly makes sense given their roles and Simmons’ opponent.

The smaller lineups should allow Manu Ginobili to earn more time on the floor as well. He hasn’t had the best playoff run, but he’s shown flashes of upside, keeping him in tournament consideration. Danny Green appears to have a secure workload now that he’s playing better – he scored 10 or more points in four games against Houston – but he’s probably best for tournaments. In the game mentioned above when Leonard and Aldridge struggled, Green went for 4-for-6 from three on his way to 16 points, although he had just five the other time he went up against them. Patty Mills averaged 17.0 points and 5.5 assists in his two starts this postseason. He should log plenty of minutes and is definitely in play, but there are three elite guards on the slate, which makes paying up at the position very tempting. As mentioned, fellow starter Gasol could potentially lose a few minutes if the Spurs go small. Al Horford is the clear top option at center on FD and there are three solid targets available on DK. With Marcin Gortat losing minutes himself, Gasol remains in consideration at FD but his ownership may be higher than it should. As with the rest of the squad, he’s in for a tough battle against an elite defense.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,200 $5,400 0.79 21.9 2.7 17.2 0.2 21.8% -1.0% 3 0.24
Danny Green $4,000 $4,400 0.62 26.6 1.0 16.5 -0.1 13.8% -0.4% 14 -0.91
Kawhi Leonard $11,400 $10,300 1.22 33.4 3.4 40.6 5.6 30.9% -2.7% 5 1.35
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,800 $7,000 0.96 32.4 2.6 31.1 -1.6 24.0% -1.4% 21 5.08
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,700 1.06 25.4 -1.2 26.9 -5.9 21.5% -4.5% 12 3.61
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $3,400 0.84 18.7 -1.7 15.7 -3.2 22.0% -2.9% 14 N/A
Jonathon Simmons $4,200 $4,600 0.67 17.9 -0.1 11.9 1.6 18.9% 3.4% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge (FD)

Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge (DK), Patty Mills, Jonathon Simmons, Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green

Golden State Warriors

While the Warriors have improved their defense in the postseason, the Spurs have been worse. After finishing at the top of the NBA with a 100.9 defensive rating, they’ve slipped to 106.1 in the playoffs. They have, however, limited opponents to a 43.6% field goal percentage and as mentioned above, hauled in 54.0% of available rebounds through 12 games. That brings up another item to consider, the Spurs have played 12 games to the Warriors eight. Plus, San Antonio will visit Golden State on two days rest whereas the Warriors are going to head into the contest after five full days off.

Like San Antonio, Golden State’s assist rate has dropped in the playoffs. Even so, their 66.2% would have been good for best in the NBA during the regular season. The Spurs ranked sixth in opponent assists during the season (21.4), but Utah ranked first (17.8) and the Warriors piled up 27.5 per game on the Jazz in the second round. The Jazz were a slightly better rebounding team than the Spurs (51.8% vs 51.6%) but Golden State still out rebounded them, pulling down 52.6% of all boards. Although the matchup will undoubtedly be a challenge, they seem to be in a better spot than the Spurs. As a comparison to the Warriors nine most-used lineups referenced above, of the Spurs top nine, five of them have a defensive rating of 113 or higher and all but one are greater than 104.7. Of course, several of those included Tony Parker, so that can be a little misleading, but let’s put it this way: their current starting lineup has posted a 123.7 defensive rating in 42 minutes together. At the same time, Golden State’s starting five has posted a 125.6 offensive rating and their “death lineup” is right up there at 122.1.

Although Golden State has a “big four,” three of them stand out as strong fantasy options – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green. Durant tied with Curry for a team-high 24.5 points per game against Utah and with Green for a team-high 8.8 rebounds per, although he had a slightly higher rebounding rate (13.9% to 13.3%). He also led the team in usage with a 29.8% rate and per-minute production with a pace of 1.27 FD ppm, which is a decline of 0.10 from his normal return. Durant took the most FGAs, 17.5, while Curry was second with 15.3 per game. The point guard’s usage declined 3.2% below his regular season numbers to 27.8% and he produced 0.13 fewer FD ppm – 1.12 total. At this point, we know that his usage and production drop when he plays with Durant. With John Wall and Isaiah Thomas both in more favorable matchups they may be more better options, especially on FanDuel where Wall is just $400 more expensive and Thomas provides a savings of $1,200. On DK, Curry is the cheapest of the three and seems like a stronger choice on that site. That means going against the grain on both sites tournaments – getting exposure to Curry on FD and fading on DK – could be beneficial in terms of ownership percentages. Green is cheaper than Curry on both sites and is the clear top power forward on FD. He’s a beast when it comes to peripherals and he closed out the second round with a 17-point triple-double. Although his assists and rebounds were down as compared to the first round, his assist and rebounding rates were right in line with his regular season production – 13.3% and 27.8%, respectively. San Antonio is tough in those areas but Utah ia arguably tougher, so there’s no reason to think Green can’t keep this up. However, in terms of scoring, he shot 47.6% from three and took the second-most treys on the team against the Jazz (21). While that’s great to see and he ended up scoring 16.0 points per game, it doesn’t seem sustainable. Still, for those that buy into hot streaks, Green is certainly on fire right now.

Klay Thompson is a boom-or-bust guy that may not be afforded enough opportunities to boom. Even in Game 4 when he set a personal series-high of 16 FGAs and turned them into 21 points, he finished with 23.9 FD points. He’s grabbed two or fewer rebounds in six of eight games this postseason and two or fewer assists in all but one contest. We can be confident in his playing time though, as he should push towards 36 minutes in close games along with the other three mentioned.

The Warriors offer a few bench guys worth consideration, but only Andre Iguodala averaged more than 16 minutes against the Jazz (26.7). He ended up turning in 0.67 FD ppm with a 17.8% usage rate. His usage was up 6.0% but his per-minute pace was 0.09 below average. That could partially be attributed to poor shooting; he was 41.9% from the field overall and 23.1% from deep whereas during the season, he posted 52.8% and 26.2%, respectively. David West could hover around 15-18 minutes normally and he produced 1.01 FD ppm, but he’s going to have to maintain or beat that pace to be of value in fantasy and he may not be worth the risk as he’ll carry limited upside without favorable game flow. Shaun Livingston’s minutes could fluctuate along with his results; he posted 14.6+ FD points in two games in the second round and 5.4 or fewer in the other two. With those three elite point guards available and a nice mid-range guy in Patty Mills, he may not offer enough of a ceiling to be worth a roster spot.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,200 $8,800 1.25 33.4 1.0 41.6 1.8 31.3% -0.3% 8 -1.07
Klay Thompson $7,300 $5,900 0.91 34.0 0.4 30.9 -8.2 24.6% -3.3% 12 2.10
Kevin Durant $9,900 $9,900 1.36 33.4 -1.4 45.5 -5.5 28.0% -0.3% 2 0.85
Draymond Green $8,800 $7,900 1.06 32.5 2.9 34.6 9.6 19.3% -0.7% 2 1.25
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $2,700 0.96 18.1 -4.0 17.4 -4.4 15.7% 2.4% 2 1.43
Andre Iguodala $5,200 $4,500 0.75 26.3 2.1 19.7 0.1 13.2% 1.8% 2 N/A
JaVale McGee $4,000 $2,600 1.24 9.6 1.8 11.9 2.9 21.7% -3.0% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).