NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 22nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Phoenix at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Biyombo
Phoenix
The Suns are hoping to get Eric Bledsoe back for tonight’s game against the Bobcats. Neither of these teams are very high scoring and Vegas has the total of this game set at 190 points. While it’s not expected to be a very high scoring game, it should be a close one.
If Bledsoe does play tonight, that really hurts the value for Gerald Green. He would no longer be a viable fantasy option as Bledsoe would take over the majority of the minutes at the SG position. The Bobcats have actually been pretty solid defensively and rank in the top 5 against PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s. If you are a strong believer in DvP rankings like myself, that really only leaves two options on the Suns.
- Miles Plumlee – Plumlee has actually been a much more consistent fantasy player than most people think. He’s scored over 25 FP’s in five of his last seven games and has a good shot to top that tonight. The Bobcats are getting Al Jefferson back tonight which really only helps Plumlee’s value. Biyombo is a much better defender than Jefferson. I think he is a low risk, medium reward value play tonight.
Charlotte
The Bobcats rank near the bottom of the league in pace of play (93) and points scored per game (89). While they have played better at home this season, they just haven’t been a great team to target fantasy-wise. The addition of Al Jefferson back into the lineup hurts the value of Bismack Biyombo and might cut into a few of Josh McRoberts minutes.
The Suns have defended all positions well except for PG’s and Centers. Without a clear idea of how many minutes Al Jefferson is going to see, I think the only real option here is Kemba Walker.
- Kemba Walker – Walker always plays well at home and is actually averaging 6 more FP’s at home than he is on the road. While Jefferson being back hurts the value of the bigs, I think it actually helps Walker. It should take some of the pressure off of him offensively and give him a nice pick and roll option. Walker is the play if you are targeting any Bobcats.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Ridnour-Mayo-Butler-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
Milwaukee
The Bucks are finally starting to get healthy. They had a few players back for their last game and among them were Luke Ridnour and Ersan Ilyasova, both of which played well. There haven’t been any injury updates on the Bucks yet today, but there will be some great fantasy options for tonight’s game. The Sixers are the worst defense in the league giving up 109 points per game. They rank in the bottom 10 against every position except for Center.
- Luke Ridnour – Ridnour got the start at PG the other night and I was one of the very few people that took a shot on him. He played very well in that game and now gets a matchup against the Sixers who are ranked dead last against opposing PG’s. Look for Ridnour to easily cover his value tonight as he is close to minimum salary across the board. Low risk with good upside.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are at the top of the league in pace of play with 101 possessions per 48 minutes. That is part of the reason why they are giving up so many points per game. Even though the Bucks play at a much slower pace, it’s hard not to get caught up in the quick tempo when your team can get layups against this Sixers defense. Basically what I’m saying is that I think this will be a very high scoring game.
The Bucks have had so many injuries and changes to their starting lineup that it’s hard to trust any of the DvP rankings, but we can still break down the individual matchups.
- Evan Turner – Turner will either be matched up against Caron Butler or O.J. Mayo, neither of which have been very good defenders this season. One of Turner’s best strengths is his ability to attack the rim and neither of these defenders have great quickness on defense. Turner has been one of the most improved players this season and the matchup lines up well for him.
- Spencer Hawes – Hawes continues to be under-owned every night that the Sixers play. For whatever reason, people just can’t trust him even though the numbers suggest otherwise. Hawes has scored over 35 FP’s in six of his last nine games and makes a great play tonight against the Bucks. Don’t be scared to pay up for him.
Washington at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Webster-Hilario-Gortat
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Gay-Johnson-Valanciunas
Washington
This game will be a clash of two different styles. The Wizards like to push the tempo and the Raptors like to play in the half court. Typically in these matchups, I give a slight boost to the team that is facing the faster-paced team and give a slight downgrade to the team facing the slower paced team. Basically, the Wizards will see a few less possessions than usual and the Raptors will see a few extra.
The Raptors have been a solid defensive team this season and rank in the top 15 against every position except for SG. I think that there are a few different ways that you can go with the Wizards tonight, but I don’t think we can expect the same production that we have seen out of Martell Webster, Bradley Beal, and Nene Hilario. I think they are all in play if their price is right, but temper your expectations.
Toronto
This is a solid matchup for the Raptors. The Wizards have been pretty average against every single position this season. Their best DvP ranking is 14th (SG’s) and their worst is 22nd (SF’s). I expect this game to be close and I think there are a few plays that make sense on the Raptors.
- Kyle Lowry – Lowry has really stepped up his game. In his last 4 games he is averaging over 40 FP’s per game and is looking a lot more like the Lowry that we saw when he was on the Rockets. I think he will be able to push the ball upcourt against this bad Wizards defense and create some open looks for himself and his teammates.
- Jonas Valanciunas – Big Val disappointed in his last game, but a lot of that had to do with his limited minutes. He only saw 22 minutes against the Sixers and a lot of that had to do with the pace of the game. I expect that number to be closer to 30 tonight against the Wizards who have a very big frontcourt. Val is cheap across the board and is one of my favorite plays at Center.
Indiana at Boston
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Olynyk
Indiana
The Pacers rank in the bottom 10 in the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (96). The matchup against the Celtics doesn’t help as the C’s play at a very similar pace. Vegas has the total on this game set at 186 points which is the second lowest tonight. The Pacers are big favorites, but the Celtics have been very competitive at home and I don’t think we have to factor in a blowout here.
- Roy Hibbert – The C’s have defended PG’s and SF’s well, but they have really struggled to defend Centers. The C’s rank 29th against opposing Centers this season and Hibbert will have a big size advantage over both Faverani and Olynyk. Hibbert has posted double-doubles in five of his last eight games and has a good shot of a double-double tonight.
Boston
The Celtics are returning from a very strange road trip in which they got hammered by the Wolves and Rockets and then put up a fight against the Spurs. I think they should be competitive in this one as they are returning home. The C’s starting lineup seems to change every night though so make sure to check the players news and update your lineups accordingly. Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley both have tough matchups, but if Jared Sullinger gets the start again, I think he makes a solid value play.
Atlanta at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -4.5, 198 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Atlanta
The Hawks and Pistons squared off the other night and the Hawks took that game at home. Tonight’s game is in Detroit and it should be another close game. The Hawks rank in the top 10 in both pace of play (98) and points scored per game (102). Their matchup against the Pistons lines up well for Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll, and Al Horford. The Pistons rank in the bottom 6 against those three positions.
- Al Horford – Horford is my favorite play here. He has been a very consistent player this season and has really only had one bad game. He seems to top 35 FP’s every time he takes the floor and he should play well against this Pistons defense that struggles against Centers.
Detroit
The Pistons have been extremely inconsistent this season. Every time I have to write an analysis on them for the Grind Down I say the same thing. I think that the starters hurt each other’s production and that they make better GPP plays than cash game plays. The matchup lines up well for Andre Drummond and Josh Smith, but I’m not trusting either of them in my H2H and 50/50 games.