NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-01 03:05:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		208.0					Vegas Total		208.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		102.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		2.6
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Marcus Smart	Semi Ojeleye	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	5	20	1	2		DvP	15	15	23	9	9
DRPM Rat.	6	2	27	3	2		DRPM Rat.	1	25	1	19	2

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers had an easier time than the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, defeating the Heat in five games. They are also significantly more healthy heading into the series, as the Celtics are expected to be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the postseason and Jaylen Brown for Game 1. The Sixers are the betting favorites in this series and that’s evident in the fact that they are favored by three points on the road in Game 1. Statistically, this is far from an ideal matchup. During the regular season, the Celtics were ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

It looks like the sites will not be offering two-day contests, so we are stuck with a single-game slate tonight. I’m not a huge fan of these slates, but they are certainly better than nothing. Ben Simmons looked like a veteran in his first playoff series, averaging 38 minutes and 49 fantasy points per game against the Heat. He’s not a great shooter, but every other part of his game is elite. He can rebound, he’s a great passer, and he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball. The Celtics have been stingy against point guards this season, but so had the Heat before Simmons took over that series. He’s the top play of the slate and the leading candidate to be my “MVP” on FanDuel (which awards 1.5x fantasy points).

J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli both averaged over 30 minutes per game in the first round and both averaged 27 fantasy points per contest. There isn’t a big difference between the two in terms of playing time or fantasy production. While it’s natural to lean toward the starter in these situations, Belinelli’s role off the bench is secure. Given the $2,000 discount on DraftKings, I slightly prefer Belinelli over Redick. On FanDuel, they are priced close enough that you can make an argument for either player. Robert Covington was in foul trouble for much of the series against Miami, but still averaged 25 fantasy points. He’s not a priority in this single-game slate, but he does offer some leverage as a low-owned play in tournaments.

The Sixers’ frontcourt will be a key in this series. They have more size and more talent than the Celtics. With these two teams matching up fairly closely on the perimeter, the series could be won or lost in the paint. Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova should both average minutes in the upper 20s in this series, as I expect the Celtics to play bigger to match up with the Sixers. I don’t see either as a great play in this single-game slate, although Ilyasova’s $5,600 price tag on DraftKings is appealing. Joel Embiid averaged 42 fantasy points per game against the Heat, which was impressive given the fact that he hadn’t played basketball in a few weeks. He should be close to 100% in terms of his healthy and his conditioning. He’s an elite play in all formats and a unique way to gain some leverage on the field on FanDuel. Simmons will be the more popular target for the “MVP” roster spot.

Notable Injuries

None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (2 of 2)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Marco Belinelli (DK), Robert Covington (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli (FD), Robert Covington (DK Cash), J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova (DK)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics aren’t getting the respect that we would typically see for a two-seed in the playoffs. They are sizable underdogs in this series as a whole and come into Game 1 as three-point underdogs against the Sixers. These are clearly two teams that are trending in different directions. The Celtics may have peaked earlier in the season when they were healthy and winning games in bunches. They are now without their All-Star point guard in Kyrie Irving and Jaylen Brown is expected to miss at least one game in this series with a hamstring injury. This seems like a lot to overcome, but the Celtics do have home-court advantage in this series.

Terry Rozier has really stepped up in the absence of Irving this season and he’s one of the reasons why the Celtics were able to beat the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs. In that series, he averaged 36 minutes and 34 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he goes from a bad matchup to an even worse one. Ben Simmons is the fourth best point guard defender in the NBA (at least in terms of defensive real plus-minus) and the Sixers as a whole are ranked third in efficiency against the position. Rozier is sort of in his own price range tonight and I keep finding myself spending up or looking for value plays instead. Marcus Smart can be incredibly frustrating when it comes to DFS, but he certainly has upside at his price point. He’s yet to play more than 31 minutes since returning from injury, but Brad Stevens did mention that he’s been cleared to play 35 minutes. At his price point, he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays of the slate. The counter-argument is that he’s volatile, so when he’s going to be chalky, there’s always a case to fade him in tournaments.

Semi Ojeleye is a defensive specialist. The Celtics used him on Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round and may decide to start him against Ben Simmons in the second round. It makes sense to put Terry Rozier on J.J. Redick, especially since the Celtics are expected to be without Brown. I’m not expecting much from Ojeleye, but he is only $1,300 on DraftKings. If he scores ten fantasy points, he’ll basically hit 8x. The savings also allow you to spend up on the rest of your roster. Jayson Tatum should have a major role in Game 1. He averaged 30 fantasy points per game against the Bucks and could push for 35+ minutes in this one.

Marcus Morris feeds off emotion and that was evident in the first round, as he averaged 26 fantasy points per game at home and 15 fantasy points per game on the road. I’m willing to go back to the Morris well here in Game 1. He’s extremely cheap on DraftKings ($4,600) if you would rather play Morris and Marco Belinelli instead of taking the super value route with Ojeleye. The Celtics may decide to start Aron Baynes in this series to match up against Joel Embiid. If that’s the case, he immediately becomes a viable option, especially on DraftKings ($3,100). Al Horford really stepped up against the Bucks, averaging 38 fantasy points per game in the first round. While he should garner low ownership, I prefer to pay up for the two superstars from the Sixers.

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out)
Jaylen Brown (Doubtful)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (1 of 2)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 8.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye (DK), Marcus Morris (DK), Aron Baynes (DK – if starting)

Secondary Plays – Semi Ojeleye (FD), Marcus Morris (FD), Terry Rozier, Al Horford