NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Philadelphia at Miami – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -10.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Richardson-Covington-Sims-Noel
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| Philadelphia | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.09 | Team Pace | 92.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Cannan | Richardson | Covington | Sims | Noel | Proj Starter | Dragic | Wade | Dieng | Haslem | Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | Opp. Season | 21 | 29 | 23 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 12 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back, after losing to the Magic last night. The Sixers are now 12-43 on the season. Wins at this point is only going to cost them ping-pong balls. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Heat in a game that features a low total of 192.5 points. The Heat present a difficult matchup, as they are the slowest-paced team in the NBA this season. They have also held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 23-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $6100, DK: $5600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16)
With Michael Carter-Williams traded to Milwaukee, this is now Noel’s team for the remainder of the season. He has played well over his last four games, averaging 33.8 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. His price is still reasonable across the industry and he draws an intriguing matchup against a Heat team that is ranked 23rd in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Canaan (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Canaan played well in his first start with the Sixers. He posted a respectable stat line of 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists against the Magic last night. While his upside may be somewhat limited, he’s a starting point guard priced at the bare-minimum. He could certainly reach 6x-7x his salary tonight against the Heat.
Miami
The Heat are one of six teams in the Eastern Conference vying for the two last playoff spots. They are 23-31 on the season and are currently holding on to the seventh-seed. They have a good chance of picking up a win tonight against a hapless Sixers team that has nothing to play for. The matchup is a favorable one, as the Sixers are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 12-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
There are quite a few options at center tonight, but none may be better than Whiteside. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Sixers are ranked 29th in rebounding differential this season. If he plays 30+ minutes in this one, he has a realistic chance to post a 20 point, 20 rebound performance. I hear that he is also hosting a block party tonight, as the Sixers have allowed the tenth-most blocks per game this season.
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34)
In daily fantasy basketball, we like to target players that are in good matchups and players that have appealing price points. Wade provides both tonight against the Sixers. His price is depressed thanks to a couple of poor outings, but he should be able to break out of his funk tonight. The Sixers have struggled to contain opposing shooting guards this season, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position.
Secondary Plays
Luol Deng (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Deng posted a dud against the Pelicans the other night, but had been playing extremely well before that. In his previous five games, he had averaged 27.8 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. With small forward being such a thin position tonight, Deng makes a strong mid-range option against the Sixers.
Toronto at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7, 196.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-J.Johnson-A.Johnson-Valanciunas
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Ajinca-Asik
| Toronto | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.8 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.97 | Team Pace | 94.03 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Alexis Ajinca | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 8 | Opp. Season | 18 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 13 | 22 | 15 | 13 | |
Toronto
The Raptors are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Their bench can take over a game at any point. A team that is this deep and talented is tough to predict on a nightly basis. The Raptors head to New Orleans to take on the short-handed Pelicans tonight. They are listed as 7-point favorites in a game that features a relatively low total of 196.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 28-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6700, DK: $7300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28)
DeRozan is the one Raptors player that is predictable on a nightly basis. He sees close to 35 minutes per game and always has a high usage rate in the offense. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and he draws a decent matchup against the Pelicans.
James Johnson (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
Johnson came out of nowhere the other night and dropped 47 fantasy points against the Rockets. The problem with Johnson is that he is just as likely to score 10 fantasy points as he is to score 30 fantasy points. If Lou Williams is unable to suit up tonight, that would solidify his minutes, but he’s still best suited as an upside play in tournaments.
New Orleans
The Pelicans just can’t stay healthy. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson are both out for at least another week, which leaves a gaping hole in the Pelicans’ production. The good news is that the rest of the players are going to have to step up in their absence. Even though they are large underdogs against the Raptors, this is a strong matchup. The Raptors are ranked 19th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 37-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Evans’ high usage rate is only going to go up with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out. When you watch a Pelicans’ game, Evans will either be your favorite player or your least favorite player. It all depends on if you have him on your team. He is a ball-dominant guard that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is an elite play tonight against the Raptors.
Eric Gordon (FD: $6300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
When Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson were injured against the Heat, Gordon took over offensively. He finished the game with 24 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists. He will likely see an uptick in both minutes and usage tonight, making him an appealing play at shooting guard against the Raptors.
Secondary Plays
Omer Asik (FD: $4900, DK: $4600), Alexis Ajinca (FD: $4200, DK: $4000), and Quincy Pondexter (FD: $3500, DK: $3000) should all see an uptick in minutes and/or usage with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out. All three are viable plays tonight against the Raptors.
Milwaukee at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -8, 193.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Bayless-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Milwaukee | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.38 | Team Pace | 95.74 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jerryd Bayless | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 3 | 19 | 20 | 15 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 24 | 10 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 17 | 25 | 2 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 23 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are going to make the playoff, the only question is whether or not they are going to compete for home-court advantage. They are 31-24 on the season and are currently only three and a half games behind the Bulls, who currently sit in the three spot in the East. The Bucks have a chance to pick up a whole game tonight, as they face the Bulls in Chicago. The Bulls’ defense has improved over the last month of play. On the season, they are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 7th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 35-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Jerryd Bayless (FD: $4100, DK: $4400 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Michael Carter-Williams has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Bayless will draw another start at point guard. Dollar for dollar, he may be the top overall play on tonight’s schedule. Bayless has averaged 29 fantasy points per game over his last two starts and should post a similar outing tonight against the Bulls.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
The Greek Alphabet has calmed down in his last couple of games, but he still deserves consideration tonight against the Bulls. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 33.5 fantasy points per contest. His price on DraftKings may be a little too expensive, but he’s sitting at a very playable $6,700 on FanDuel.
Chicago
The Bulls will be without Taj Gibson tonight. While Nikola Mirotic should see a boost off the bench, Gibson’s absence solidifies the minutes of both Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol more than anything else. The Bulls draw a tough matchup against the Bucks, but the frontcourt should be able to find success in this one. The Bucks are ranked 22nd in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 31-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
Noah was already on my radar tonight and now that Taj Gibson has been ruled out, he only becomes a stronger play. He is playing his best basketball of the season, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. His price is still reasonable across the industry and he gets to face a Bucks’ team that has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9700, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Gasol would be an elite play tonight if it wasn’t for his expensive price tag. At his price point on FanDuel and DraftKings, he needs to post 45+ fantasy points to meet value expectations. He’s certainly capable of that though, as he posted an 80 fantasy point outing against this same Bucks’ team earlier this season. Gasol is a safe cash game play tonight thanks to his high floor.
Minnesota at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -9, 211 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Dieng-Pekovic
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
| Minnesota | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.39 | Team Pace | 98.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 26 | 18 | 18 | 16 | Opp. Season | 29 | 23 | 30 | 28 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 28 | 15 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are currently tied with the Sixers as having the second least amount of wins this season. They are a much better team than their record suggests though. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets, but they should be able to keep this one within striking distance. The Rockets are still a stout defensive team, but they aren’t as intimidating without their anchor, Dwight Howard, to man the middle of the paint.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 37-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Over his last ten games, Martin has averaged 30 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every single game during that stretch. He has a high usage rate in the Wolves’ offense and he draws a favorable matchup against James Harden and the Rockets, who have struggled to contain opposing shooting guards this season.
Ricky Rubio (FD: $6500, DK: $6600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
The old saying “strike while the iron is hot” applies here, or in our case, strike while the price is low. Rubio’s minutes are trending upward and his price is still sitting at a very playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Over his last two games, Rubio has nearly averaged a triple-double with 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists. He has also played 34.5 minutes per game during that stretch. While his matchup against Patrick Beverley is tough, Rubio doesn’t rely solely on scoring for his fantasy production.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Pekovic (FD: $6200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23)
Kevin Garnett isn’t expected to make his Wolves’ debut until Wednesday, which means Pekovic could push for 35 minutes tonight against the Rockets, whose frontcourt is not as intimidating without Dwight Howard in the lineup. Pekovic is also coming off of a strong four-game stretch, where he has averaged 33.5 fantasy points per contest.
Houston
The Rockets continue to tread water while they wait for Dwight Howard to return from his injury. They have won six of their last ten games and are still holding on to the three-seed in the Western Conference. Tonight the Rockets host the Wolves in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. This is one of the best matchups on the board, as the Wolves are ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 12-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Harden has only topped 40 fantasy points one time in his last four games, but has a great chance to break out of his mini-slump tonight against the Wolves. Not only are the Wolves one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, but they have also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Harden has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA and should get back to posting 50 fantasy point outings tonight.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5400, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17)
Looking at some of the small forward rankings around the industry, I’m higher on Ariza than most tonight. While he doesn’t have the highest usage rate in the offense, he averages close to 36 minutes per game and he faces a Wolves’ defense that is ranked dead last against small forwards this season. Ariza has also played well over his last eight, averaging 27.8 fantasy points per game.
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $6300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Smith may not be the most cash-friendly option tonight, but his upside puts him in play for tournaments. Smith has scored at least 34 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and is by far the most productive big man on the Rockets with Dwight Howard out.
Brooklyn at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 202 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Anderson-Johnson-Young-Plumlee
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Brooklyn | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.25 | Team Pace | 98.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Alan Anderson | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 27 | 25 | 29 | 25 | Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 7 | 25 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 27 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 30 | ||
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games, but are currently still holding on to the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have a good chance to pick up a win tonight against the Nuggets, who have all but given up on the season. This is one of the better matchups to exploit tonight, as the Nuggets are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 20-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Jarrett Jack is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game against the Nuggets, which means Williams, will likely draw another start at point guard. Williams is coming off of his best game in months, scoring 12 points and dishing out 15 assists on his way to a 40 fantasy point outing. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight against a Nuggets’ team that has struggled to contain point guards recently.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Johnson isn’t an elite play tonight, but he offers good value at shooting guard. His price is reasonable, he draws a favorable matchup against the likes of Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and he has scored at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last nine games.
Denver
The Nuggets have lost eight of their last ten games and are getting little respect from Vegas tonight. They are 2-point underdogs at home against a below-average Nets’ team. At this point, it’s tough to trust any of the Nuggets. Coach Byron Shaw has a deep and inconsistent rotation, as he is looking for any lineup that can play well together. The matchup against the Nets is a friendly one, but there is only one option that stands out on the Nuggets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 22-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $3600, DK: $4400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
With Arron Afflalo in Portland, Gallinari is now the starting shooting guard for the Nuggets. He has seen an uptick in both minutes and production and his price on FanDuel is still close to the bare-minimum. Based on his FanDuel salary, Gallinari would reach and exceed value if he can score 20 fantasy points tonight. He’s certainly capable of that feat in a home matchup against the Nets.
Secondary Plays
None