NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 23rd - Page Two
Boston at Phoenix – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -7.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Boston | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.00 | Team Proj. | 110.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.57 | Team Pace | 99.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 24 | 28 | 7 | 22 | Opp. Season | 20 | 2 | 22 | 26 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 27 | |
Boston
The Celtics have lost six of their last ten games, but are still only two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They have a tough task ahead of them tonight, as they have to face a talented Suns’ team in Phoenix. While they may not pick up a win, the Celtics are littered with viable fantasy options. The Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have allowed the third-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 29-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $4600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21)
Jared Sullinger is out for the season and Kelly Olynyk is doubtful for tonight’s game. That means Bass is going to see all of the minutes that he can handle against the Suns. Over his last two games, Bass has averaged 28 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. He offers good upside at his price point and comes with very little risk.
Tyler Zeller (FD: $4500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Zeller also sees a major fantasy boost with both Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk out. Zeller has averaged 31 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game over his last two. He should see north of 30 minutes again tonight against a Suns’ team that has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas (FD: $6000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 26)
Who doesn’t love a little revenge? It’s a common subject in daily fantasy sports and even my wife loves Revenge (the television show on ABC). Thomas is in the ultimate spot for revenge tonight, as the Suns traded him less than a week ago. Thomas played well in his first game with the Celtics, scoring 31.5 fantasy points in only 25 minutes. I doubt it will happen, but if the Celtics decide to start Thomas tonight, he would become an elite play at point guard.
Phoenix
The Suns have lost four games in a row and seven of their last ten. While I expected the Thunder to eventually pass them in the standings, I wasn’t expecting it to happen so quickly. They have a good chance to bounce back tonight against the Celtics. The Suns are 7.5-point favorites tonight and have the highest team total on the board at 110.5 points. Eric Bledsoe is in a great spot tonight, but I’ll likely take a wait and see approach, as Brandon Knight will likely make his first start in the Suns’ backcourt.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 20-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
The one problem with Morris this season has been his inconsistency. His last four outings are a perfect example of this. He has scored 14, 29, 43, and 19 fantasy points during that stretch. The high ceiling is there, but so is the low floor. For that reason, Morris is a secondary play tonight at power forward.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4900, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Tucker has really played well over his last five games, averaging 26.5 fantasy point in 32 minutes per contest. With small forward being so thin tonight, he makes a fine mid-range option at the position. He draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 19th against small forwards this season.
Alex Len (FD: $4500, DK: $4000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Len should be able to feast on an under-sized and under-manned frontcourt of the Celtics tonight. Len is coming off of back-to-back quality outings against the Bulls and Wolves. He should continue his solid play tonight. The only reason he is listed as a secondary play is due to the many great options at the center position tonight.
San Antonio at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5.5, 188 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| San Antonio | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | Vegas Sprd | 5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.75 | Team Proj. | 91.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 92.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | |||||||||||
| Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 2 | Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 26 | 20 | |
San Antonio
This game lacks fantasy appeal. The Spurs are always one of the least favorite teams to see on the schedule and they are facing a Jazz team that plays at the second-slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Spurs are 5-point favorites tonight in a game that features a very low total of 188 points. Quickly calculate this for me: (((5 × 8) / 20) – 2). The answer is how many Spurs I recommend having in cash games tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 20-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
If you must have some exposure to the Spurs tonight, Parker is the preferred play of the bunch. His price is still depressed and he has averaged 26.6 fantasy points per game over his last six outings.
Utah
The Jazz draw a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight. The Spurs are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and tenth in rebounding differential this season. The Jazz are only projected to score 91.3 points tonight, which is the lowest team total on the board. Despite the tough matchup, there is one player that does stand out on the Jazz tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 34-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Gobert picked up two fouls in the first four minutes in his first start in the post-Enes Kanter era. His foul trouble really limited his minutes in the first half, but he still managed to score 24 fantasy points in 24 minutes of action. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see 30+ minutes against the Spurs, who haven’t been very stingy against opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -3, 202.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
| Memphis | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3 | Vegas Sprd | -3 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.75 | Team Proj. | 102.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.18 | Team Pace | 96.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 3 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Season | 4 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 2 | ||
Memphis
The Grizzlies are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back after picking up an impressive come from behind win over the Blazers last night. They will look to make it back-to-back road victories tonight, as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. This will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies. The Clippers play at the tenth fastest pace of any team and they have allowed the eighth most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 37-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Randolph should be the Grizzlies’ go-to player on offense tonight. Mike Conley will have to lock horns with Chris Paul, while Marc Gasol will have to deal with the very athletic DeAndre Jordan. Randolph, on the other hand, draws an extremely favorable matchup against Spencer Hawes. Randolph has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last four games and should be able to extend that streak tonight against the Clippers.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers draw a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, but at least they get to face them on the second half of a back-to-back. Even with that, this is still not a matchup that I want to heavily invest in. The Grizzlies play at a slow pace and they have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. While the Clippers are projected to score over 100 points tonight, their team total is still five points lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 40-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $10000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
There are two things that I try to stay away from: targeting players in poor matchups and overpaying for players. You can argue that Paul is both overpriced and in a tough matchup tonight. This would typically an easy spot to avoid Paul, but he has been forced to take over offensively with Blake Griffin out. Paul deserves consideration as a tournament play tonight.