NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Philadelphia at Cleveland – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -16, 193 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Philadelphia | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 16.0 | Vegas Sprd | -16.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.94 | Team Pace | 94.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 22 | 29 | 17 | 17 | Opp. Season | 21 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 29 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have an extremely tough test in front of them tonight. The Cavaliers have won their last ten games by an average margin of victory of 12.9 points. Vegas has the Sixers listed as 16.5-point underdogs in a game that could easily be out of hand by halftime. This is not a matchup that we should go out of our way to target, especially on a night that features seven other games on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 29-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
The Sixers are in full developmental mode right now. Noel will likely see his usual complement of minutes tonight even if the game gets out of hand early. He has played well over his last nine games, averaging 10 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He also draws a favorable matchup against Cavaliers’ frontcourt.
Cleveland
All of the concern in Cleveland is gone now that the Cavaliers have extended their winning streak to ten games. They are quickly climbing up the standings in the East and are currently only four and a half games behind the second seeded Raptors. Everything points to an easy victory for the Cavaliers tonight, as they host the hapless Sixers. This is a favorable matchup, but unfortunately the starters may only see three quarters of action tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 10-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith, and Timofey Mozgov are all decent secondary plays, but given the potential blowout here, they are all risky options in cash games. This game could easily be over by the end of the third quarter, maybe even halftime.
Charlotte at Washington – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -7.5, 188.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Roberts-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Charlotte | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.5 |  | Vegas Total | 188.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.5 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.21 | Team Pace | 95.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brian Roberts | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 5 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 13 | 9 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and are starting to gain the respect of the oddsmakers. They are only 7.5-point underdogs tonight as they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. Even though the Hornets are playing well, this is not a matchup that we want to exploit tonight. The Wizards are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 31-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Since rejoining the starting rotation, Jefferson has score 39 and 33 fantasy points. His price is no longer discounted on DraftKings, but he’s still sitting at a playable price across the industry. He has one of the highest usage rates among all centers this season and that should continue to be the case with Kemba Walker out. The biggest concern here is his matchup against Marcin Gortat, who has held opposing centers to the 3rd fewest fantasy points this season.
Brian Roberts (FD: $4300, DK: $4600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
In five starts this season, Roberts has averaged 9 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal per game. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but that roughly equates to 21 fantasy points per game. He will continue to man the backcourt with Kemba Walker out and he makes for a serviceable value play tonight against the Wizards.
Washington
The Wizards own an impressive 18-7 record at home. Tonight they host the visiting Hornets, who are only 8-14 on the road. While I like their chances to pick up another win tonight, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Bobcats are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. They have also been stout defensively this season, holding their opponents to an average of only 97.1 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 20-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9200, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Wall is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, as he sat out shootaround with migraines. While he has been dealing with a couple of nagging injuries recently, it hasn’t affected his play on the court. Over his last six games, he has averaged 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 12 assists per game. As long as he gets the green light to play tonight, he is one of the top plays at point guard against Brian Roberts and the Hornets. If he is forced to sit out, Andre Miller and Bradley Beal would both see an uptick in minutes and/or usage.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
Beal is coming off of a terrific outing against the Raptors where he had 26 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists. His price is at one of it’s lowest points of the season, which gives us a great buy-low opportunity. Beal has a high usage rate (22.0) in this offense and a favorable matchup against Gerald Henderson and the Hornets, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
L.A. Clippers at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -9, 199 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| L.A. Clippers | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 95.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.24 | Team Pace | 94.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 26 | 6 | 24 | 6 | Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 20 | 13 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 23 | 4 | 24 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 1 | 12 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have won eight of their last ten games and currently sit in the three seed in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. Even though they are playing on the road, Vegas has the Clippers listed as 9-point favorites in this one. This is a mediocre matchup on paper. The Nets are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 19th in defenisve efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 18-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9700, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
Griffin is playing some of his best basketball of the season. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in six of his last nine games, averaging 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game during that stretch. He is one of the most involved big men in the NBA, as evidenced by his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Garnett and the Nets, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Paul is one of the few superstars that you can count on for consistent fantasy production. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in five of his last ten games. His matchup against the Nets is average at best, but his price is more than reasonable across the industry. He should post another solid all-around outing tonight against the Nets.
J.J. Redick (FD: $4600, DK: $3600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Redick is one of DraftKings’ special bargains for tonight. He is listed at $3,600, which means he only needs to score around 20 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of reaching that mark, especially on a site that awards a 0.5 point bonus for three-pointers made.
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games. They are still in playoff contention, but appear to be in fire sale mode more than anything. They are 9-point underdogs tonight at home against the Clippers. They are hoping to have Deron Williams back in the lineup tonight, which should hurt the production of Jarrett Jack moving forward. The Nets are only projected to score 95 points tonight, which is not an attractive team total.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 33-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Johnson missed practice yesterday for personal reasons. Assuming he is able to play tonight, he makes a good value play at shooting guard. The Clippers haven’t been great against opposing wing players and Johnson has 30 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor.
Milwaukee at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6.5, 203 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Milwaukee | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.50 | Team Pace | 95.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 12 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 25 | 11 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 18 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are looking for their 4th win in a row tonight, as they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors. The Raptors are a tough matchup for anyone, especially when they are playing at home. Vegas expects the Bucks to be competitive though, as they are only listed as 7.5-point underdogs in this one. This is a favorable matchup on paper, as the Raptors have allowed the 8th most points allowed per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 33-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
John Henson and Jared Dudley would both be considered elite plays at their respective positions if Ersan Ilyasova (questionable – groin) and Zaza Pachulia (questionable – calf) are both ruled out tonight.
Secondary Plays
Editor’s Note: Brandon Knight (quad) has been ruled out for tonight.
Brandon Knight (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Knight is having a terrific season for the Bucks, averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals per game. He has a high usage rate and he consistently sees 30+ minutes of action per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5900, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Over his last four games, The Greek Alphabet is averaging 27 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He has not been a reliable option this season, but his minutes should be secure if Ersan Ilyasova and/or Zaza Pachulia are ruled out again tonight. At his price point, he has the potential to reach 6x-7x salary tonight against the Raptors.
Toronto
The Raptors aren’t quite to the level of the Hawks (19 games) or the Cavaliers (10 games), but they are riding a six-game winning streak of their own. They draw a tough matchup against the versatile Bucks tonight though. The Bucks have allowed the 4th fewest points allowed per game this season at 97.0. They are also ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency. A well-balanced offense that is facing a stout defense is not the typical recipe for individual fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 25-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28)
DeRozan is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, where he has averaged 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He has one of the highest usage rates among all shooting guards and he has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last five games. He is the one Raptors’ player that stands out in tonight’s matchup against the Bucks, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.
Secondary Plays
Greivis Vasquez (FD: $4800, DK: $4000 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Vasquez has quietly performed well as the Raptors’ starting shooting guard. Over his last six games, he has averaged 22 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action per game. Based on his salary, he only needs to score 20-24 fantasy points to reach value, which is a feat that he is certainly capable of if given enough minutes.
Atlanta at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4.5, 195 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| Atlanta | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.01 | Team Pace | 94.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 11 | Opp. Season | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 17 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 4 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks are looking for their 20th win in a row tonight. If anyone predicted that the Hawks could win 20 in a row before the season started, I’d like to have a chat with you, because you were obviously involved with Biff and his theft of the sports almanac. The Hawks draw a mediocre matchup against the Pelicans tonight, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game this season. The Hawks are projected to score 100 points tonight, which is considerably lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 25-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7900, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Teague has cooled off recently, but he has still averaged 15 points, 2 rebounds, and 9 assists per game over his last ten. His price has come way down across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against Tyreke Evans, who is not used to defending opposing point guards.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Korver is a player that any team would love to have. He plays hard, knocks down open shots, and is more than adequate on the defensive side of the floor. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last four games and draws a decent matchup against Eric Gordon and the Pelicans, who are ranked 16th against shooting guards this season.
New Orleans
Anthony Davis is expected to be back in the Pelicans’ lineup tonight, which really helps their chances of ending the Hawks’ long winning streak. The Pelicans have won seven of their last ten and are only listed as 4.5-point underdogs tonight. This is not a matchup that we need to heavily target though. The Hawks are ranked 3rd in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 40-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11500, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Davis has been dominant in his last six games, averaging 27 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals per game. His ability to post double-digit fantasy points with blocks and steals alone gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. While the Hawks have been stout defensively this season, they have struggled with opposing power forwards.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8200, DK: $7900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Evans has been terrific at home this season, averaging 20 points 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Home/Road splits typically aren’t a huge factor in fantasy basketball, but they are with Evans. He is averaging close to nine more fantasy points per game at home than he is on the road. He’s a great upside play tonight against the Hawks.