NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 2nd - Page Two
Orlando at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -13.5, 208 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Gordon-Harris-Vucevic
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Orlando | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.25 | Team Proj. | 110.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.24 | Team Pace | 97.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Tobias Harris | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 10 | 17 | 21 | 4 | Opp. Season | 28 | 9 | 27 | 23 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 26 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 26 | |
Orlando
Over the last three weeks, only the Warriors have played at a faster pace than the Magic. They have quickly morphed into a run and gun team, which has been great news for the fantasy appeal of both their players and their opponents. The Thunder have also played at a much quicker pace over the last month or so, which is why I have this game projected as the fastest-paced game of the night. The Magic are large underdogs tonight, but this game should be a gold mine for fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 23-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Evan Fournier would become an elite play at shooting guard if Victor Oladipo (Achilles) is unable to suit up tonight.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $9000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Vucevic has really excelled in this Magic’s new uptempo style of offense. Over his last six games, he has averaged 23 points and 14 rebounds per game. He draws a tough matchup against Steven Adams and Kendrick Perkins, but the fast pace of the game should help offset some of that. Vucevic is the top center on the board, the only question is whether or not he can reach value with that expensive price tag.
Tobias Harris (FD: $5800, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24)
Harris was inserted back into the starting lineup the other night against the Mavericks. While he didn’t play particularly well, the biggest takeaway was that he played 30 minutes and he reclaimed his right as a starter. He is currently priced as a backup, which allows us to buy-low on Harris in a fast-paced game against the Thunder.
Elfrid Payton (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.4)
Payton has become a reliable fantasy option recently. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 29 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder find themselves in the most favorable matchup on the board. As I mentioned above, the Magic have turned into one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. The quick pace has really taken a toll on their defense, as they have let their opponents score at least 100 points in each of their last 12 games. The Thunder are projected to score 111 points tonight, which means there should be plenty of room for everyone to eat at the table. This game does have the potential to turn into a rout, but the Magic are talented enough to keep this one within striking distance.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Editor’s Note: Kevin Durant (toe) has been ruled out for tonight.
Kevin Durant (FD: $10900, DK: $10000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
Durant is easily the preferred superstar to pay up for tonight. His price is more than reasonable across the industry (especially on DraftKings). He has scored at least 46 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and should easily reach that mark again tonight. The Magic have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10900, DK: $10100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 37)
If the Magic can keep this game close, it’s possible that Durant and Westbrook could both reach value. The Thunder could easily put up 120+ points tonight against this uptempo Magic team. Westbrook has a ton of upside and should find success against a Magic team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7000, DK: $6700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Ibaka is usually the third or fourth option offensively, but his ability to rebound and blocks shots puts him in play tonight against the Magic. The Magic are ranked 28th in rebounding differential this season.
Steven Adams (FD: $4400, DK: $3800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Adams offers good value at center tonight if you are looking for some salary cap relief. He is averaging around 24 minutes per game this season and he draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Magic, who do not rebound or defend centers well.
Minnesota at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -12, 206 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Young-Pekovic
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Harris-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Minnesota | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.00 | Vegas Sprd | -12.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97 | Team Proj. | 109 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.59 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Devin Harris | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 13 | Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 11 | 22 | 22 | 24 | |
Minnesota
The T-Wolves are tentatively expecting to have Ricky Rubio available for tonight’s game. This will be his first game in months, so his minutes will likely be limited. Rubio’s presence will hurt the fantasy appeal of Mo Williams and Zach LaVine moving forward. The Wolves head to Dallas tonight to take on the uptempo Mavericks. This is a decent matchup, but the Wolves are huge underdogs in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 32-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6800, DK: $6200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Young is playing some of his best basketball of the season. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He has also averaged 37.5 minutes per game during that stretch. His price is more than reasonable across the industry and he draws a decent matchup against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks in what should be a fast-paced game.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22)
Wiggins has seen a slightly smaller role in the offense with Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic back in the lineup, but his minutes are still there. He played 43 minutes the other night against the Cavaliers and should see around 40 again tonight against the Mavericks. Even if this game gets out of hand, Wiggins will see his usual complement of minutes.
Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $5100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Martin may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s still a very strong play on DraftKings at a price of only $5,100. He was inserted back into the starting lineup the other night and played 37 minutes. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in all three of his games since returning from his injury and should continue the streak tonight against the Mavericks.
Dallas
The Mavericks will be without Rajon Rondo tonight as he suffered two facial fractures the other night against the Magic. Devin Harris will likely draw the start at point guard with Monta Ellis seeing a fantasy boost as well. The Mavericks draw an extremely favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who are ranked dead last in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 8-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7800, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
With Rajon Rondo out tonight, Ellis will see a sizable boost in usage in the Mavericks’ offense. Ellis had 25 points and 13 assists in Rondo’s absence the other night against the Magic and should be the main playmaker in the Mavericks’ offense again tonight. He also draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Devin Harris (FD: $3500, DK: $3100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Harris will likely draw the start at point guard, which means he will see a sizable uptick in both minutes and potential fantasy production. He is listed at close to the minimum salary on most sites across the industry. He should easily reach and exceed value tonight against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chandler Parsons are all secondary plays tonight against the T-Wolves. The Mavericks are projected to score 109 points, which is the second-highest team total on the board.
Memphis at Phoenix – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 204 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Memphis | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3 | Vegas Sprd | 3 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.16 | Team Pace | 99.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 18 | 26 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 27 | 15 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in what is expected to be a very competitive game. The Grizzlies are listed as 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 204 points. This will be a pace-up game for Memphis, as Phoenix averages five more possessions per 48 minutes than the Grizzlies do. With the way the Mike Conley and the wing players have been performing recently, the top targets here are both in the frontcourt.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 28-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $8600, DK: $8600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Since returning from injury, Randolph has been an unstoppable force of nature. In those 12 games, he has averaged 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. While those numbers are impressive, how about the fact that he has put up 12 consecutive double-doubles? Randolph’s price has come up, but he remains an elite play tonight against the Suns. Markieff Morris will have a tough time defending him in the post.
Marc Gasol (FD: $8200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Gasol has taken a backseat to Zach Randolph offensively, but he has still been a productive player in DFS. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 16 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks per game. That equates to 37 fantasy points per game during that stretch. His price has come down and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Suns, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Phoenix
The Suns host a very talented Grizzlies’ team tonight. This will be a pace-down game against a team that has held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season. The Suns are projected to score 100.5 points tonight, which is markedly lower than their season average of 106.8.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 35-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None