NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 9th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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San Antonio at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 191 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stuckey-Miles-West-Hibbert
| San Antonio | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 93.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.46 | Team Pace | 95.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Aron Baynes | Proj Starter | George Hill | Rodney Stuckey | C.J. Miles | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Season | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 15 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing the tail end of back-to-back road games tonight. In these situations, we have to be on full “POP” alert, as we all know his history with resting his veterans. Even if the Spurs are at full strength tonight, this is not the best matchup to exploit for fantasy production. The Pacers play at a slow pace (ninth-fewest possessions per 48 minutes) and have held their opponents to the seventh-fewest point per game this season (97.3). Unless Coach Popovich decides to rest a few of his players, the Spurs can safely be avoided tonight against the Pacers.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 20-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana
The Pacers are looking for their fourth straight win tonight, as they host the San Antonio Spurs. Vegas has the Pacers listed as 4.5-point underdogs in a game that features a relatively low total of 191 points. While this game should be competitive, it is not a great game to target for our purposes. The Spurs are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 32-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6600, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
West is a viable option if you need a player at his price point to round out your lineup. He’s not a must-play by any means, but he has played well recently, averaging 30.7 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. The Spurs have also struggled to contain opposing power forwards, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Golden State at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -15, 204.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Frazier-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Golden State | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -15.0 | Vegas Sprd | 15.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.8 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.21 | Team Pace | 98.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Tim Frazier | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 11 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 13 | 27 | 5 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 27 | |
Golden State
The Warriors head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in a game that features the biggest spread on tonight’s schedule. The Warriors are 14-point favorites in this one. While the Sixers do present some intriguing matchups, I would be shocked if the Sixers are able to keep this game close. Coach Steve Kerr loves to limit his starter’s minutes in these situations. The matchup is ideal, but it may be tough for the Warriors’ players to reach value if they are forced to sit the bench the entire fourth quarter.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 12-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Curry posted an average outing against the Knicks in his last time out, but had scored at least 42 fantasy points in each of his previous seven games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who may be without Michael Carter-Williams tonight. Even if MCW plays, Curry should have no issues creating his own shots.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7800, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Thompson has had a boom or bust nature to his game this season. He is an elite scorer, but he is one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA. His inconsistency makes him a tough player to target in cash games. He makes for an intriguing tournament option tonight though, as the Sixers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are only 12-40 on the season. While they have won four of their last ten games, they will have their hands full tonight with the team that owns the NBA’s best record. The Sixers are huge underdogs and are only projected to score 94.8 points tonight. In a potential blowout against one of the the best teams in the NBA, the Sixers can safely be avoided tonight.
Injury Note – Michael Carter-Williams is questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 40-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Frazier (FD: $3500, DK: $4000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 15.3)
This pick hinges on the health of Michael Carter-Williams, who has been forced to sit out the last two games with a foot injury. If MCW is forced to sit out tonight’s game, rookie Tim Frazier would draw another start at point guard. He is still unproven as a viable fantasy option, but he has averaged 21.5 fantasy points over his last two games.
Orlando at Washington – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -8.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Porter-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Orlando | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.11 | Team Pace | 95.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | John Wall | Otto Porter | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | Opp. Season | 29 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 5 | |
Orlando
Since firing Coach Jacque Vaughn, the Magic have slowed their pace of play down. Before last two games, they had been the second-fastest paced team in the NBA in the previous three weeks. The slower pace of play and a tough matchup against the Wizards leaves the Magic in a tough spot tonight. The Wizards are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 32-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Oladipo draws a tough matchup against the Wizards, but his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet puts him in play tonight. He has played well over the last three weeks, averaging 31.7 fantasy points in 35 minutes per game. His price is still under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which puts him as a top five fantasy option at shooting guard.
Editor’s Note: Tobias Harris has been ruled out with a sore knee. Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic get a bump in his absence.
Tobias Harris (FD: $6100, DK: $6300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Harris has played well over his last four games, averaging 37.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Even more impressive is the fact that he has averaged 41 minutes per game in those four outings. He does draw a tough matchup against the Wizards, but this may be the last opportunity to target Harris at this price point.
Washington
If this game was played as little as a week ago, the Wizards would have the premier matchup on the board. The Magic had allowed their opponents to score over 100 points in something like 15 straight games. Their new coach has slowed their pace of play down, but the Magic still present a favorable matchup for the Wizards. The Wizards are projected to score 102 points tonight, which is two points higher than their season average.
Injury Note – Bradley Beal is questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 16-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9000, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Wall is one of the top plays at point guard tonight. He has played well over the last three weeks, averaging 43.8 fantasy points per game. He also draws a premier matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Wall is reasonably priced and offers great upside at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Gortat has been in a slump recently, but it hasn’t been as bad as most people have made it out to be. Gortat has still scored at least 23 fantasy points in five of his last eight outings. Tonight’s matchup against the Magic is one that should suit Gortat well. The Magic have allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers and are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.
Paul Pierce (FD: $4700, DK: $4400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Pierce is an interesting value play tonight against the Magic. His price is depressed and he may see a small increase in usage if Bradley Beal is forced to miss tonight’s game. Pierce provides us with a buy-low opportunity in a favorable matchup. He has shown an ability to post 30+ fantasy point outings and he is listed under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
New York at Miami – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -4.5, 184 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
- Miami Proj. Starters – Napier-Chalmers-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
| New York | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 184 |  | Vegas Total | 184 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.8 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.73 | Team Pace | 91.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Shabazz Napier | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | Opp. Season | 24 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 1 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 30 | |
New York
The Knicks have won five of their last ten games, but still have the worst record in the NBA at 10-41. They have little to play for at this point and draw what may be the worst matchup on tonight’s schedule. The Heat are the slowest-paced team in the NBA and have allowed the second-fewest points per game this season. The Knicks are only projected to score 89.8 points tonight, which is easily the lowest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 21-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jason Smith (FD: $4900, DK: $5200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Smith is a serviceable value play tonight against the Heat, who may be without Hassan Whiteside tonight. Smith has played well over the last three weeks, averaging 26.4 fantasy points in 31 minutes per game. He is by no means a must-play tonight, but is the preferred play if you want to have some exposure to the Knicks tonight.
Miami
The Heat have lost seven of their last ten games and are quickly sliding down the Eastern Conference standings. They have a good chance to right the ship tonight, as they host the New York Knicks. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point underdogs in a game that features a fairly low total of 184 points.
Injury Note – Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside are both questionable.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Chris Bosh (FD: $7700, DK: $7300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
With Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside questionable, Bosh should see a sizable uptick in both usage and production tonight. If both are ruled out, Bosh will be the primary option offensively for the Heat. He should be able to exploit his matchup against the makeshift frontcourt of the Knicks. Even in a game that is expected to be a low-scoring affair, Bosh deserves the ‘elite play’ tag, given his increased role in the offense.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Millsap-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon—Babbitt-Cunningham-Asik
| Utah | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.3 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.84 | Team Pace | 94.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Elijah Millsap | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Luke Babbitt | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 7 | Opp. Season | 13 | 18 | 10 | 15 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 8 | 24 | 16 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 13 | |
Utah
The Jazz are only 8-18 on the road this season, but should stay competitive tonight against a short-handed Pelicans’ team that will likely be without Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and Ryan Anderson. The Jazz are only 5-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of 191.5 points.
Injury Note – Joe Ingles is not expected to play in tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 27-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8200, DK: $7900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Hayward has been on fire over the last three weeks, averaging 39.4 fantasy points per game. His price has come up across the industry, but it’s still at a playable level. Hayward has an extremely high usage rate in the Jazz offense and has seen a nice boost in fantasy production with Dante Exum in the starting lineup. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who have struggled to contain opposing small forwards in recent weeks.
Secondary Plays
Elijah Millsap (FD: $3600, DK: $3200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 16)
With Joe Ingles out, Millsap should draw another start at shooting guard tonight. He played well in his spot start the other night, finishing the game with 22 fantasy points in 36 minutes against the Kings. He’s a serviceable value play tonight, as he should see minutes in the mid-30’s once again.
New Orleans
Anthony Davis has already been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Jazz. Ryan Anderson is likely to join him in street clothes, as he is listed as doubtful. With Davis and Anderson out, the entire team sees a sizable fantasy boost, as they will have to make up for that lost production. The Pelicans’ matchup against the Jazz isn’t ideal, but the injuries to Davis and Anderson open up some excellent fantasy options tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 18-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
With Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out, Evans immediately becomes one of the top plays at any position tonight. His already high usage rate is only going to go up and he will likely be asked to carry the load offensively. He has 50+ fantasy point upside tonight in a game where he will be the primary option offensively.
Eric Gordon (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
Gordon should also see a sizable boost in usage with Davis and Anderson out. He is priced affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Jazz. It may not be a bad idea to get both Evans and Gordon in your lineups tonight, given their increased roles in the offense.
Secondary Plays
Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, and Dante Cunningham are all viable secondary options tonight against the Jazz. All three should see a boost in minutes without Davis and Anderson in the lineup.