NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 9th - Page Two
Brooklyn at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -4.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
| Brooklyn | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.50 | Team Proj. | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.2 | Team Pace | 96.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Season | 17 | 25 | 6 | 22 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 15 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 21 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games, but are still tied with the Miami Heat for the eighth-seed in the Eastern Conference. The Nets head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game where that are listed as 4.5-point underdogs. This is one of the toughest matchups on the board, as the Bucks are ranked second in defensive efficiency and sixth in points allowed per game this season.
Injury Note – Deron Williams is questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 28-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $7300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
If Deron Williams is forced to miss tonight’s game, Jack would see all of the run that he could handle. He has played well over his last three weeks, averaging 35.9 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Jack does draw a tough matchup against a premier on-ball defender in Brandon Knight though, which is why he is only listed as a secondary play.
Brook Lopez (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
This is not the second half of a back-to-back, so Kevin Garnett will likely be back in the starting lineup tonight. While that is concerning, Lopez has seen starter’s minutes over his last six games, averaging 36 fantasy points in 33 minutes per outing. Lopez makes an intriguing contrarian play in tournaments.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are expected to have Zaza Pachulia back for tonight’s game. It’s unclear whether he will start or come off the bench, but his presence hurts the fantasy value of Jared Dudley and John Henson. It may also cut into the minutes of both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who have seen extended playing time thanks to the Bucks’ injuries. Their matchup against the Nets is mediocre at best. The Nets play at a slow pace and are ranked 15th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 21-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $8000, DK: $7400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Knight has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals per game. His price may be a little too expensive to target on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable $7,400 on DraftKings. Knight also draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who have struggled to contain point guards this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Antetokounmpo is also coming off of a solid stretch of games, averaging 36 fantasy points over his last six games. His price has come up a bit though and his minutes may come back down to the low 30’s now that the Bucks are healthy. He’s still in play, but Eric Gordon is a nice pivot now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out.
Atlanta at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Young-Pekovic
| Atlanta | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.5 |  | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.50 | Vegas Sprd | 7.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.12 | Team Pace | 97.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Season | 18 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 14 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 28 | 23 | 28 | 9 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks head to Minnesota to take on a much-improved Timberwolves team. The Hawks are only listed as 7.5-point favorites tonight. If this game had been played a few weeks ago, the Hawks would likely be double-digit favorites. The Wolves offer an exploitable matchup for the Hawks, as they are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 11-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Al Horford (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Horford doesn’t get enough recognition in daily fantasy basketball, despite being one of the most productive centers in the entire NBA over the last three weeks. During that stretch, he has averaged 40 fantasy points in 32 minutes per game. He will lock horns with Nikola Pekovic tonight, who has not been the shut-down defender that he was in past years.
Secondary Plays
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.7)
Carroll offers terrific value tonight against the Wolves. He is a reliable fantasy option that is guaranteed to see 30+ minutes each night. His price is down and all he needs is an average outing to reach value tonight (around 23 fantasy points). Carroll offers much needed salary cap relief at a position that can be tough to fill.
Minnesota
The Wolves will be at full strength tonight, as they host the Atlanta Hawks. Coach Flip Saunders said that he was going to rest Nikola Pekovic on back-to-backs, but it doesn’t sound like he is sticking to it as Pekovic is expected to play tonight. While the Wolves should keep this game competitve, this is one of the toughest matchups on the board. The Hawks are ranked in the top ten in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 42-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
DraftKings refuses to match Martin’s price with his recent level of production, which is more than fine with me. He has been terrific since returning from injury, averaging 29 fantasy points in 36 minutes per game. He has averaged 40 minutes per game over his last four games and should see all of the run that he can handle tonight against the Hawks.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young and Nikola Pekovic are both viable secondary options tonight against the Hawks.
L.A. Clippers at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8.5, 210 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Rivers-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| L.A. Clippers | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.75 | Team Proj. | 109.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 96.7 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | Austin Rivers | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 13 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 22 | 13 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 17 | 7 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers will be without Blake Griffin, J.J. Redick, and Glen Davis tonight. The rest of the team is going to have to step up in their absence, as they travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. The Clippers are 8.5-point underdogs tonight, but could be a great source of fantasy production if they are able to keep this game close. With Griffin out, there is a ton of production that needs to be made up. All five starters see a sizable fantasy boost.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 35-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9400, DK: $9100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
With Blake Griffin out for the foreseeable future, Paul is going to have to shoulder the load offensively. In his first start without Griffin, Paul had 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 13 assists. His usage rate is going to rise and so will his daily fantasy production. This is a great opportunity to target Paul before his price goes up. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who have struggled to contain opposing point guards this season.
Spencer Hawes (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Hawes is the chalk play at center tonight. With Blake Griffin and Glen Davis out, Hawes should see 30+ minutes of action tonight against the Mavericks. Hawes is more than capable on the offensive end of the floor and should excel in his new role as a starter. He should be able to build on his 18.2 fantasy point outing against the Thunder yesterday.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Crawford, and Matt Barnes are all viable secondary options tonight against the Mavericks.
Dallas
The Mavericks will be without Rajon Rondo until after the All-Star Break, which means J.J. Barea will continue to start at point guard. The Mavericks draw a favorable matchup tonight against a Clippers’ team that has allowed the 10th-most points per game this season. The Mavericks are projected to score 109 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 33-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Parsons has quietly played well over the last three weeks, averaging 29 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game. He is starting to become the stat-stuffing small forward that we came to know from his time in Houston. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Clippers, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.6)
Over the last week, Ellis has a usage rate just under 30.0, which is close to superstar status. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in three of his last five games and draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who have struggled to contain shooting guards this season. He should continue to see a boost in Rajon Rondo’s absence.
J.J. Barea (FD: $4700, DK: $4600 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Rajon Rondo will not play tonight, which means Barea will draw another start at point guard tonight. He has played well in Rondo’s absence, averaging 23.7 fantasy points in 30 minutes per game. Barea does draw a tough matchup against Chris Paul, but still makes a serviceable value play at point guard.
Oklahoma City at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Oklahoma City | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.50 | Vegas Sprd | 6.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 102 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.15 | Team Pace | 98.43 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 28 | 23 | 29 | 25 | Opp. Season | 25 | 9 | 21 | 20 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 18 | 12 | |
Oklahoma City
Vegas must see this as a trap game for the Thunder. The Nuggets have been arguably the worst team in the NBA over the last three weeks, yet the Thunder are only 4.5-point favorites tonight. In terms of fantasy production, a close game only bolsters the Thunder’s appeal tonight. The Nuggets’ defense has been missing for months and they have allowed the fifth-most points per game this season.
Injury Note – Steven Adams will not play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Durant played only 29 minutes against the Clippers on Sunday, but still managed to fill up the stat sheet with 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists. Assuming the Nuggets can keep this game, Durant should play close to 40 minutes tonight. He has 60 fantasy point upside in this favorable matchup. Let’s take advantage of the sub-$11k price tag while we still can.
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Mitch McGary is going to receive a lot of attention today, but I’m not buying any shares after only one solid game. Kendrick Perkins is back from his suspension and we all know how inconsistent Coach Brooks’ rotation is. Dollar for dollar, Ibaka is the better play in my eyes. He may see close to 40 minutes tonight against a Nuggets’ team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11200, DK: $11200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.8)
Westbrook is a terrific tournament play tonight. He doesn’t have as high of a floor as Kevin Durant, but he has just as high of a ceiling. I’m not a fan of Westbrook in cash games tonight, because there are plenty of other options at point guard. Plus, I am buying all of the Durant shares that I can.
Denver
The Nuggets continue to lose and for whatever reason, Vegas expects them to keep tonight’s game close. They are projected to score 102 points tonight, which is a fairly high team total. Their matchup against the Thunder is a tough one though. The Thunder are ranked in the top eleven in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 26-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21)
Even with the Nuggets’ recent struggles, Lawson has played well. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging just under 35 fantasy points per game. His price is down across the industry (especially on DraftKings) and he draws a favorable matchup against Russell Westbrook. If the Nuggets are going to keep this one close, you have to assume Lawson will be the main beneficiary.