NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-01-27 21:49:45

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Phoenix at Philadelphia

• Vegas Line – Phoenix -5.5, 212 Over/Under
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes

Phoenix

We have six games on the schedule tonight and the Suns/Sixers game features the highest total of the night by far. The total is set at 212 points and should be the fastest-paced game as well. Both of these teams average at least 97 possessions per game which is well above the league average. As far as the individual matchups, we all know that the Sixers struggle to defend all positions. They don’t discriminate, they are equally bad at defending everyone as they are ranked 27th or worse against every position on the floor.

All five starters are in play tonight as well as Leandro Barbosa who is a spark plug off the bench that can really rack up fantasy points in a hurry. Miles Plumlee makes a nice punt option at Center, Markieff Morris is on another one of his tears, and Gerald Green looks to be in a great spot as he will likely see plenty of open looks from the 3-point line.

• Goran Dragic – Dragic is going to be a very popular play tonight and for good reason. Not only is he facing the league’s worst defense, but he’s really taken over as the leader of this team ever since Bledsoe went down with his injury. Look for Dragic to post a monster double-double against this very soft defense.

Philadelphia

The Sixers are also in a very favorable position because the Suns like to play at a fast pace as well. There should be plenty of fantasy points to go around and with the Suns only favored by 5, we shouldn’t have to worry about this game turning into a blowout. This is probably the best game to target on the schedule tonight.

The Suns have only defended one position well this season. They are ranked 6th in the league at defending SG’s, but are ranked 13th or worse against the other four positions. Tony Wroten is back for the Sixers which does hurt Michael Carter-Williams fantasy value, especially considering the fact that he has been suffering from fatigue recently. Spencer Hawes makes a nice play at Center, Plumlee should have a hard time defending him on the perimeter.

• Evan Turner – Turner is at his best in fast-paced games where he can make plays for himself or his teammates in transition. This should be an extremely fast-paced game and it fit his style of play perfectly. The Suns are ranked 23rd against SF’s over the last 15 days and Turner should be in for a nice game tonight.

• Thaddeus Young – Thaddeus is a very streaky player. At one point in the season he seemed to top 40 FP’s every single night. Then recently he seemed to struggle to make it to 20 FP’s every night. However, he’s turned it back up by scoring an average of over 35 FP’s in his last three games. You want to take Young when his confidence is up and that’s the case right now.

Toronto at Brooklyn

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Salmons-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
• Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett

Toronto

The Raptors travel to Brooklyn to take on the red hot Nets. It’s crazy that this same team was struggling to be competitive only a few weeks ago. The Nets success has really been thanks to their play on the defensive end. If you look at their DvP rankings, they are ranked 6th or better at defending every position over the last 15 days except for the SF position.

The total for this game is set at 191 points which is the lowest of the night. Both of these teams are slow paced teams that like to win with defense. Kyle Lowry will be in a tough matchup against Livingston and Williams, but he has been fairly matchup-proof and I think he’s still in play if his price is right. Other than Lowry, Terrence Jones makes an interesting play as DeMar DeRozan is out for tonight’s game.

Brooklyn

The Nets are in an equally unfavorable position tonight. The Raptors are ranked 7th or better at defending every position on the floor except for SG’s this season. Not only is it a less than favorable matchup, but now that the Nets are fully healthy, no one is required to play major minutes or required to take over offensively. The Nets have too many good players fighting for production. The Nets are an easy team to avoid completely tonight.

Minnesota at Chicago

• Vegas Line – Minnesota -2.5, 195 Over/Under
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Minnesota

This game features two different styles of basketball. The Wolves play at an extremely fast pace (100) and win with offense. And the Bulls play at an extremely slow pace (93) and win with defense. In these situations, it makes sense to give the slow paced team a slight fantasy boost because the pace of the game will likely end up being somewhere in the middle of their averages. If that’s the case, that means a slight decrease in fantasy value for the fast paced team.

I’m going to be avoiding the back-court players from the Wolves tonight. Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, and Corey Brewer all have less than enticing matchups. Kevin Love is in play though, he has been matchup-proof all season and can rack up fantasy points in a half-court setting thanks to his ability to crash the boards.

• Nikola Pekovic – Pek’s value really hinges on the status of Joakim Noah tonight. He is currently listed as a game-time decision. If Noah can’t go, that leaves a huge hole in the Bulls interior defense. The Bulls would start Boozer and Gibson, neither of which will be able to keep Pek out of the paint. Keep your eye on the injury news throughout the day and take Pek if Noah doesn’t end up playing.

Chicago

The Bulls are in a favorable position tonight. The Wolves are a very fast-paced team that has a below average defense. The fantasy value of the Bulls is in a similar position as Pekovic’s. A lot of it depends on the status of Joakim Noah. If he can’t go tonight, that makes Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson great fantasy options. They would both be worth roster consideration as the Bulls don’t really have any other bigs other than Mohammed. Noah’s status doesn’t affect everyone’s value though. I think Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler are both in play against this soft defense.

• D.J. Augustin – Augustin is one of my favorite plays tonight regardless of whether Noah plays or not. He has been an excellent fit in this Bulls offense and he is playing with extreme confidence. He scored 15 points in the 4th quarter against the Bobcats and I love his matchup tonight against Rubio. He should be a lock for 30+ fantasy points tonight.

L.A.Clippers at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -9, 198.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Henson-Sanders

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers are a tough team to predict tonight. They have a nice matchup against the Bucks, but they are 9 point favorites and the Bucks like to play at a very slow pace. It’s one of those games where the blowout potential is there, but if the game doesn’t turn out to be a blowout, then there are going to be some good fantasy options.

The Bucks are ranked 19th or worse against every position on the floor over the last 15 days. They have really struggled to defend the paint though. I love the matchup for both Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. If you think this game can stay close, don’t hesitate to roster either of these players. Darren Collison is a site-specific play tonight (extremely cheap on SS).

Milwaukee

The Bucks continue to frustrate us Grinders. They often get blown out and they have a coach that loves to mix up his rotations. At this point in the season, Brandon Knight is really the only Bucks player that is seeing consistent minutes night in and night out. He has a very tough matchup against the Clippers though, they are ranked 1st in the league at defending PG’s this season. In my opinion, the Bucks don’t offer any viable fantasy options tonight.

Atlanta at Oklahoma City

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -10, 205.5 Over/Under
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Atlanta

The Hawks will be without Jeff Teague tonight as they travel to OKC to take on Durant and the Thunder. The matchup isn’t great, but Teague’s absence does open up big minutes for Shelvin Mack, Kyle Korver, and Lou Williams. Paul Millsap also makes an intriguing fantasy option tonight as the Thunder have not defended the PF position well this season. I see him as a GPP play though, there is the risk of a blowout and that would kill any fantasy value that he has.

• Shelvin Mack – Mack and Lou are really the only viable fantasy options on the Hawks tonight. They will see a nice boost in production with Teague out. Mack’s price is very affordable across the industry and he should be able to top the numbers that he put up the other night in his first start.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are double-digit favorites at home tonight. That’s something that I never love to see because it does bring up the conversation of a potential blowout. The Hawks have been very average defensively this season and have not defended any one position particularly well. Reggie Jackson makes a nice play at the PG position on sites where he is still a cheap option. Serge Ibaka also makes an interesting play, he has really picked up his defense lately. When he is blocking shots, that really gives his fantasy value a nice boost.

• Kevin Durant – Even with the potential blowout, Durant makes a great anchor for your lineups tonight. He is on an incredible tear through the NBA schedule right now and the Hawks aren’t going to be able to slow him down. I could quote his stats all day long, but at the end of the day, we know what Durant brings to the table. If you can afford him, get him in your lineups.

Sacramento at Utah

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Williams-Thompson-Gray
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

Sacramento

The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight and Rudy Gay is listed as a game-time decision. The Kings have been surprisingly competitive in their two games without Cousins and Gay, but both of those games were at home. With Cousins out, Aaron Gray will draw another start at Center. He’s averaged over 15 FP’s per game in his two starts and makes a very deep sleeper pick tonight. Cousins’ absence also boosts Jason Thompson fantasy value.

I’m not sure if we will hear about Gay’s status before the first game tips off tonight, but for late-swap sites, if Gay ends up sitting out, Derrick Williams makes a nice value play. He would see big minutes once again. Marcus Thornton would also see a boost in fantasy value in that scenario.

• Isaiah Thomas – IT2 continues to impress me. He’s such a small man, but he packs an incredible punch. I love his matchup tonight against Burke and the Jazz and with Cousins and possibly Gay out, he is going to be their main option offensively. The Kings are going to need a monster game from him if they want to pull off the upset tonight.

• Jason Thompson – Thompson is one of my favorite plays tonight. He’s flying under the proverbial fantasy radar because he hasn’t played great without Cousins in the lineup. But that’s just fine my me. With Cousins out, he will play major minutes tonight and he has a nice height advantage over Marvin. Take Thompson at his extremely cheap price tag and watch him post 25+ fantasy points tonight.

Utah

The Jazz are in a nice spot tonight. They are taking on Kings team that one, loves to push the pace, and two, is going to be missing their best player. Gray has actually done a pretty decent job defensively, but I still love the matchup for Derrick Favors down low. He will have a length and quickness advantage over Gray and I expect the Jazz to go to him often in the post. Gordon Hayward also makes an interesting play. He’s been very boom or bust this season, but when he is on, he can really post monster stat lines.

• Trey Burke – Burke is averaging over 25 FP’s per game at home this season and has an excellent matchup against Thomas and the Kings who are currently ranked 26th against PG’s this season. Burke should push the pace and create some easy opportunities in transition.