NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 16th - Page Two
Denver at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -11, 196 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Foye-Chandler-Hickson-Nurkic
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Denver | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.55 | Team Pace | 94.27 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | J.J. Hickson | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 2 | Opp. Season | 14 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 8 | |
Denver
The Nuggets will rest Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried tonight against the Grizzlies. This game already had the potential to turn into a blowout and now it’s even worse. The line has already moved to -11 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see if move even more here in the next couple of hours. The Grizzlies are an awful matchup for fantasy production, but three starters out, the Nuggets do provide us with a couple of interesting value plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 46-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Will Barton (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
With Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari out tonight, that opens the door for Barton to see extended action once again. He has been tremendous off the bench for the Nuggets, averaging 29 fantasy points per game over his last four. He should see 30+ minutes of playing time tonight against the Grizzlies and some of that could come in garbage time.
Jameer Nelson (FD: $3800, DK: $4000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
In his start for Ty Lawson the other night against the Warriors, Nelson played 38 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points. He then backed that performance up with another good outing against the Pelicans last night. His matchup against the Grizzlies is tough, but the value is too good to pass up tonight, especially in cash games.
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
There hasn’t been an update on the status of Mike Conley today, but if his ankle is even a little sore, they will likely hold him out again tonight. They draw an easy matchup against a short-handed Nuggets’ team. While the Nuggets are usually a terrific matchup for our purposes, this game has blowout written all over it. The Grizzlies’ starters could be in for only two or three quarters of work.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 25-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Beno Udrih (FD: $3700, DK: $3800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 20)
This pick hinges on the health of Mike Conley. If Conley is unable to suit up tonight, Udrih would draw another start at point guard. Udrih has been quiet in his last two starts, but it’s hard to pass up a starting point guard at his price point. He would also draw a favorable matchup against a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City at Dallas – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 212.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-Kanter-Adams
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Oklahoma City | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.93 | Team Pace | 96.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Season | 28 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 30 | 18 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 13 | 14 | 4 | 16 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have won six of their last ten games, but have actually lost ground to the Pelicans during that stretch. They currently have a one-game lead over the Pelicans for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The Thunder are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after picking up a win over the Bulls yesterday. The Mavericks are not a great defensive team and this game is expected to be both close and high scoring.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 42-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $13000, DK: $12600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 37.4)
Westbrook is the top overall play at any position tonight. He has been tremendous with Kevin Durant out of the lineup and it’s going to be tough for Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks to slow him down tonight. Westbrook is averaging 36 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists per game over his last eight outings. He’s unstoppable in the open floor and he can create his own shot whenever he wants it. The triple-double freight train should be in for another big outing tonight.
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $6200, DK: $6100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Kanter is a borderline elite play tonight at center. Serge Ibaka has already been ruled out, which means Kanter will continue to log heavy minutes in the Thunder frontcourt. Kanter has posted 43 and 40 fantasy points in his last two games and will not be priced this cheap for much longer. Tonight may be our last chance to target him at this price point.
Dallas
The Mavericks are only 5-5 in their last ten games, but it feels like they are close to turning it around. They are finally healthy for the first time in months. A win over the Thunder could be the confidence boost that they need to finish the season strong. The Thunder are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and this game features the highest total on tonight’s schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 37-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6200, DK: $6200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Parsons has played well since coming back from injury. Over his last three games, he is averaging 28 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder is expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game, which suits Parsons well, as he is terrific in transition. He can attack the rim and spot up from the three-point line. He’s a strong play tonight, especially given the lack of other options at his position.
Tyson Chandler (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Chandler is rarely on my radar for cash games, but tonight is an exception. He is facing a Thunder frontcourt that is short-handed and playing on tired legs. The Thunder frontcourt was beaten down by the bigs of the Bulls yesterday. Chandler on the other hand, is coming off of his best game in weeks and his price is at its’ lowest point in weeks. He’s one of the best values at center tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -4.5, 179.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Charlotte | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 179.5 |  | Vegas Total | 179.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 87.5 | Team Proj. | 92.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.57 | Team Pace | 92.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1 | Opp. Season | 9 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 18 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and are currently sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Al Jefferson was expected to miss a few games with his injury, but he is expected to play tonight against the Jazz. If Jefferson is a late-scratch, Bismack Biyombo would draw another start in his place. The Hornets’ matchup against the Jazz is a tough one. The Jazz have been the best defensive team in the NBA over the last three weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 29-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams (FD: $4300, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Cody Zeller is not expected to play tonight, which means Williams will draw another start at power forward. Having Al Jefferson back in the lineup may actually help Williams’ fantasy appeal, as he love to spot up from the three-point line. Jefferson draws a ton of attention down low. Williams is a serviceable value play tonight against the Jazz.
Utah
The Jazz have played at a very high level over the last few weeks thanks to their stifling defense and their ability to rebound the ball. While I like their chances to win their sixth game in a row tonight, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Hornets are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. The total for tonight’s game is set at only 179 points, which is by far the lowest total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 29-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8200, DK: $8300 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 13.6)
Gobert is coming off of yet another huge fantasy outing. On Saturday night against the Pistons, he finished with 10 points, 19 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Over the last three weeks, he has basically had a floor of 30 fantasy points with a ceiling around 60. He should have another monster double-double tonight against the Hornets, but it may be tough for him to reach value at this price point.
Rodney Hood (FD: $4300, DK: $4100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Hood is going to be the trendy pick tonight. He has played well over his last three games, averaging 24 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest. I’ll likely have a little exposure to him tonight, but I’m not going overboard. He’s still an inconsistent rookie in a tough matchup against the Hornets.
Atlanta at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Bazemore-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Cousins
| Atlanta | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.22 | Team Pace | 97.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kent Bazemore | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Carl Landry | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 28 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 9 | 15 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 25 | 29 | 17 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 22 | 6 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks rested Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, and DeMarre Carroll last night against the Hawks. They will now rest Al Horford and Kyle Korver tonight against the Kings. This could be a great matchup to target tonight, assuming the starters see their usual complement of minutes. The Kings have allowed the 3rd most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 22-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7500, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
With Millsap being rested last night against the Lakers, Al Horford played 35 minutes. I expect Millsap to see a similar number of minutes tonight against the Kings, assuming the game stays relatively close. This is a great time to buy low on Millsap, as his price is depressed. He also draws a fantastic matchup against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 20th against power forwards this season.
Kent Bazemore (FD: $4100, DK: $3400 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Bazemore started for DeMarre Carroll last night and he played very well with 29 fantasy points in 38 minutes against the Lakers. He should draw another start tonight, only this time it will be for Kyle Korver. Bazemore is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the Kings have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $6800, DK: $6700) and Dennis Schroder (FD: $5000, DK: $4800) are both in play against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 27th against point guards this season. Both players will split the point guard duties though, which is why I have them both listed as secondary options for tonight.
Sacramento
The Kings have blown huge leads in back-to-back games, losing to the Sixers and the Wizards. Rudy Gay is questionable for tonight’s game against the Hawks. If he is unable to suit up, Omri Casspi would likely draw another start in his place. The matchup against the Hawks is a tough one, as they are ranked 4th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 51-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10900, DK: $9800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.6)
The Hawks have been tough against centers this season, but they won’t have Al Horford down low to bang against Cousins. Cousins is about as matchup-proof as they come and we can expect another big outing from him tonight, especially if Rudy Gay is unable to suit up. Cousins has as much upside as any player not-named Russell Westbrook. He’s an elite play on DraftKings at a price of only $9,800.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Lakers at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -18, 209 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Johnson-Hill-Black
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| L.A. Lakers | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 18.0 | Vegas Sprd | -18.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.66 | Team Pace | 100.87 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Jordan Hill | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 20 | Opp. Season | 30 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 10 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight and they have to do it against the team with the best record in the NBA. The Lakers have little chance of being competitive tonight, let alone getting a win. They are 18-point underdogs against the Warriors. All Lakers can be avoided in cash games. The Lakers also have little fantasy appeal in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 52-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors are massive favorites tonight at home against the Lakers. With Steve Kerr limiting his players minutes whenever possible, this is not a great game to target. The Warriors will likely be on the winning end of a blowout, with their starters seeing limited action. They are too risky to use in cash games tonight, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are both worth a look in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 17-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None