NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 16th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Toronto at Indiana – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Toronto | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.00 | Team Pace | 95.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 8 | Opp. Season | 23 | 12 | 26 | 7 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 26 | 28 | 9 | 5 | |
Toronto
The Raptors put up a disappointing effort last night at home against the Blazers. They now have to turn around and head to Indiana to take on a red-hot Pacers’ team. The Raptors are 5-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 195 points. This is one of the worst matchups to target for fantasy production, as the Pacers are ranked in 3rd in points allowed per game and 6th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 30-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $8000, DK: $7400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Lowry has played well since returning from injury, averaging 37 fantasy points per game over his last five contests. His price has come up quite a bit on FanDuel, but he’s still priced at a very playable $7,400 on DraftKings. His matchup against the Pacers isn’t ideal though, which is why he is listed as a secondary option tonight.
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7400, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
DeRozan has quietly played some great basketball recently. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against C.J. Miles and the Pacers, who are ranked 26th against shooting guards this season.
Indiana
The Pacers have won eight of their last ten games and are looking like a very formidable first-round opponent for one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Raptors, who both play at a fast pace and struggle on the defensive end of the floor. The Pacers are projected to score 101 points in tonight’s contest, which is five points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 39-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $6600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Hill’s minutes and fantasy points per game are both trending in the right direction, as the Pacers make their playoff push. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest. He has logged as many as 35 minutes in close games and could see that around that tonight against the Raptors. Hill also draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles (FD: $4400, DK: $4300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Miles is a sneaky play in tournaments tonight. He has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games and we all know the type of upside that he brings to the table. He is priced to sell on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the Raptors have struggled to contain opposing shooting guards over the last couple of weeks.
Portland at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -2, 198 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Gooden-Gortat
| Portland | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.56 | Team Pace | 95.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Drew Gooden | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 24 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 8 | 22 | |
Portland
The Blazers are playing their second game in as many nights, as they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. The Blazers are 2-point underdogs in a battle between two very good defenses. The Wizards are ranked 8th in points allowed per game and 4th in rebounding differential this season. The Blazers are only projected to score 98 points tonight, which is markedly lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 38-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9200, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
Damian Lillard is also in play here, but he plays at a position that is always one of the deepest in daily fantasy basketball. I’ll be avoiding him tonight in a tough matchup against the Wizards. Aldridge is worth a look at power forward though. He has scored at least 41 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and he would see a small boost if Nene Hilario is unable to suit up for the Wizards.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6200, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum has really stepped up for the Blazers since Wesley Matthews went down with his injury. Over his last six games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. It’s tough to pay this price for a player that has as low of a usage rate as Batum does, but he doesn’t rely solely on scoring for the majority of his fantasy production.
Washington
The Wizards picked up an impressive win over the Kings the other night. They came back from a 20-point deficit and ended winning by 16 points. They are looking to right the ship, after a tough three-week stretch. They have fallen down to the 5th-seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are only a game behind the Bulls. A win over the Blazers tonight could prove to be the difference between hosting a first round playoff series or having to go on the road.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 43-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
After a quiet month of February, Wall is back to his early-season form. Over his last six games, he is averaging 42 fantasy points per contest. Wall has had great splits at home all season and he draws a favorable matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $5700, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Beal has burned many bridges in the daily fantasy sports community. But it’s important to avoid having biases against certain players in daily fantasy basketball. Beal’s price is depressed tonight and the shooting guard position is one that lacks options. Beal has scored at least 27 fantasy points in three of his last six games and needs to reach that mark again tonight to reach value against the Blazers.
Philadelphia at Boston – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -8.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Sampson-Richardson-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Philadelphia | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.40 | Team Pace | 98.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jakarr Sampson | Jason Richardson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 22 | 23 | 24 | Opp. Season | 26 | 29 | 14 | 28 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 27 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have been competitive in the last couple of weeks, which is a pleasant surprise. Most rebuilding teams are in full tank mode at this point in the season. The Sixers are 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics. While their team total may not be very high, this is actually a pretty favorable matchup. The Celtics are a fast-paced team and are ranked 25th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 29-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Noel is making a strong push for Rookie of the Year consideration. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 12 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 3 steals per contest. He has a unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He should be able to feast on a Celtics’ frontcourt that is both under-sized and under-manned. I don’t mind paying his expensive price in this tremendous matchup.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston
The Celtics are only a half game behind the Hornets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They have a great chance to close the gap tonight against the Sixers, who are only 5-27 on the road this season. The Sixers always present a favorable matchup for fantasy production, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, which could limit the minutes of the Celtics’ starters.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 15-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $5800, DK: $5500) and Avery Bradley (FD: $5600, DK: $5400) would both see an uptick in minutes and/or production if Isaiah Thomas is unable to play tonight. Both would be worth a look against the Sixers.
Cleveland at Miami – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -3.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Walker-Whiteside
| Cleveland | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.83 | Team Pace | 92.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Henry Walker | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | Opp. Season | 8 | 23 | 25 | 13 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 4 | |
Cleveland
The big question surrounding the Cavaliers is whether or not LeBron James will suit up tonight. He is currently listed as questionable, but it’s hard to imagine him sitting out a game against his former team. He needs to take his talents to South Beach for tonight’s game. If James is unable to suit up, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and J.R. Smith would all see a huge boost in usage. All three would become viable fantasy options at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 29-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10900, DK: $10900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
As mentioned above, James is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. As long as he gets the green light to play, he should be considered an elite play against his former team. Not only is he heading back to South Beach, but he’s priced under $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He would have a little added motivation to put on a show for Miami fans.
Secondary Plays
None
Miami
Heat fans will certainly have a big letdown if LeBron James is unable to suit up tonight, but it could help their chances of making the playoffs. The Heat are currently a half game behind the Hornets for the 8th and final spot in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Their matchup against the Cavaliers isn’t all that appealing for our purposes though, as the Cavaliers are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 8th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 42-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8000, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade seems to have found the fountain of youth. He has been on a tear over his last seven games, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in each. During that stretch, he is averaging 39 fantasy points per game. In addition to the hot streak that he is riding, Wade also gets the added bonus of facing his former teammate tonight (assuming LeBron James is able to play).
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $6600, DK: $6300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dragic is going to fly under the radar tonight. He makes a strong contrarian play in tournaments. Over his last four games, he is averaging 32 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He also draws a decent matchup against Kyrie Irving in a game that could be played at a fairly quick pace.
Brooklyn at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 200 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Hamilton-Dieng
| Brooklyn | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.73 | Team Pace | 97.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Justin Hamilton | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 25 | 28 | 26 | 27 | Opp. Season | 15 | 27 | 7 | 27 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 19 | 19 | 6 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 29 | 29 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. They head to Minnesota tonight to take on the Wolves. The Nets are 2.5-point favorites in what should be a close, high-scoring affair. The Wolves are always one of the best matchups for fantasy production, as they are ranked daed last in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-50
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6000, DK: $5900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Young has hit the fantasy value trifecta for tonight’s game against the Wolves. His price is depressed, his minutes and production are both trending upward, and he gets to face his former team that traded him for Kevin Garnett. Young has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of his last four games and should be able to feast on a Wolves’ frontcourt that may be short-handed once again.
Brook Lopez (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 27)
After Lopez’s dud against the Sixers, no one seems to be talking about him. Prior to the Sixers’ game, Lopez had scored at least 32 fantasy points in five of his previous six outings. That’s terrific production from a player at his price point. I’m predicting a huge bounce-back effort from Lopez against a Wolves’ defense that is ranked 27th against centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $5400, DK: $5300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Johnson’s price is at one of its lowest points of the season. He basically needs 27 fantasy points to reach value. That shouldn’t be too difficult, as he is averaging 26 fantasy points per game on the season. Johnson also draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 28th against small forwards.
Minnesota
Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett, Nikola Pekovic, and Gary Neal are all questionable for tonight’s game against the Nets. It’s difficult to analyze the matchup if we don’t know who is going to be in the lineup. On paper, this is an average matchup for fantasy production. The Nets are an average-paced team that is ranked 15th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 26-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
As mentioned above, there are four Wolves’ players that are headed for game-time decisions tonight. Even if a couple are forced out of tonight’s game, Wiggins should see an uptick in his usage within the Wolves’ offense. Wiggins basically a lock to play close to 40 minutes tonight. He is in a great spot to bounce-back, after a few poor outings in a row.
Zach LaVine (FD: $3600, DK: $3300 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 20.7) – If Ricky Rubio is out tonight.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6200, DK: $5700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15) – If Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett are both out tonight.
Justin Hamilton (FD: $4100, DK: $4000 / MPG: 12 / Usage Rate: 12.9) – If Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett are both out tonight.