NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 17th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-17 18:59:44

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Boston at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -10.5, 203 Over/Under
Boston Proj. Starters – Bayless-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Boston

Is anyone else feeling a Celtics stack tonight? If the luck of the Irish is ever going to pay off, it’s going to be on St. Patrick’s Day. Vegas doesn’t exactly see it this way though as the Celtics are 10.5 point underdogs tonight against Dallas. If the Celtics are going to pull off a St. Patty’s Day miracle, they are going to have to do it without their star PG Rajon Rondo. Rondo will get the night as the C’s have decided to rest him on back to backs for the rest of the season.

Rondo’s absence means a nice fantasy boost for both Jerryd Bayless and Avery Bradley. It doesn’t really matter who starts at PG and who starts at SG because they will likely play interchangeable positions and both will spend time running the point. Both are great fantasy options tonight. Bradley is only $4k on DK tonight which may be the top value play in the industry. Jeff Green makes a great GPP play, he scored 39 points last night and the C’s tend to rely on him more when Rondo is out of the lineup.

Kris Humphries – If it were only Wednesday, things would be perfect for Humphries. St. Patrick’s Day and Hump Day all in one? Oh well, I guess we will have to settle for one of the two. Humphries has really picked up his play of late and he’s been rewarded with consistent minutes. Hump has played over 25 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games and has scored over 26 FP’s in 5 straight games.

Dallas

The Mavericks are 10.5 point favorites tonight, but could be in for a bit of a letdown game after picking up a huge win in Oklahoma City last night. The Mavericks have a decent matchup tonight against the Celtics. It will be interesting to see how the Celtics match up with the Mavericks guards. Avery Bradley is clearly the better defender and my guess is that they will stick him on Monta Ellis. If that’s the case, that really hurts his fantasy value.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk has an affordable price across the industry and is a reliable cash game play tonight. The Celtics have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to PF’s over the last 15 days and Dirk is averaging 35 FP’s per game at home this season.

Shawn Marion – I always like targeting players that are priced extremely low. Marion is dirt cheap across the board and has a nice matchup against the Celtics. Marion played well in their victory last night and should keep it rolling tonight.

L.A.Clippers at Denver

Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -4.5, 217 Over/Under
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

L.A.Clippers

This game features the highest total of the night at 217 points. The Nuggets have all but given up defensively as they have only held their opponents under 100 points one time in their last 12 games. They are now giving up the 3rd most points per game this season and their DvP rankings have not fared so well either. The Nuggets are ranked 15th against PG’s and 23rd or worse against the other 4 positions.

Chris Paul – Paul tweaked his ankle the other night against the Jazz, but should be close to 100% for tonight’s game after playing 36 minutes in last night’s win against the Cavs. Paul is among the league leaders in touches per game and should have his fingerprints all over tonight’s game.

Blake Griffin – In the two meetings against the Nuggets this season, Griffin is averaging 30 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. The Nuggets have had one of the worst interior defenses all season and we can expect another solid outing from Griffin. With Durant in a tough matchup against the Bulls, Griffin could post the best fantasy game of the evening.

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan is averaging 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks against the Nuggets this season which are pretty standard numbers for Jordan. I think he can post an ever bigger stat line tonight. I love his price on DK and think he makes a solid play on the other major sites as well.

Denver

The Nuggets are facing a Clippers team that has now won 11 straight games. The good news is that the Clippers like to push the pace of the game as much as they do. This game is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night and the Nuggets play much better at home than they do on the road. Ty Lawson is the one player that should be avoided here. Chris Paul has made a habit of shutting down opposing PG’s and it’s pretty incredible to think that the Clippers have surrendered the least FP’s per game to PG’s considering their pace of play. Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler both have depressed salaries and make nice value plays.

Kenneth Faried – Faried has played in 9 games this month and has posted some incredible stat lines during that stretch. In those games, he is averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal per game. His price has gone up across the industry, but he is still under-priced based on his recent level of production. The Manimal is one of the GREENEST plays on the board tonight.