NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Houston at Indiana – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -1, 202 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Houston | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.31 | Team Pace | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 8 | Opp. Season | 2 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 12 | 27 | 14 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 9 | |
Houston
The Rockets have lost five of their last ten games and are losing ground in the very competitive Western Conference. They head to Indiana tonight to take on the Pacers in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game than the Rockets are used to. The Pacers are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard have both been ruled out of this game. Patrick Beverley, Josh Smith, and Trevor Ariza are all listed as questionable.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 30-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $11200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
The Rockets are extremely banged up right now, which means Harden has been forced to take over offensively. Luckily, that’s something that Harden has never had a problem doing. Harden has as much upside as any player on the board tonight and he actually draws a pretty decent matchup against a Pacers’ team that is ranked 23rd against shooting guards this season. The big concern is whether or not he will be able to reach value in a slower-paced game.
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
With Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones both out tonight, Motiejunas should see extended action against the Pacers. Josh Smith may also sit out, which could lead to Motiejunas pushing for 35+ minutes tonight. While the matchup against the Pacers is less than ideal, Motiejunas has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four straight games. He should be able to keep the streak alive tonight given his expanded role with all of the injuries to the Rockets.
Secondary Plays
Corey Brewer (FD: $5500, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Brewer has been terrific off the bench for the Rockets. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. His price has come up across the industry, but he should push for around 30 minutes tonight against the Pacers. Brewer would also see a major boost if Trevor Ariza (questionable) is unable to play tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers have lost five games in a row, but are still only a half game out of the eighth-seed in the Eastern Conference. The team is holding out hope that Paul George will be able to return this season, but it may not matter if they can’t turn things around quickly. This is a favorable matchup for the Pacers. It will be a pace-up game against a Rockets team that is ranked right around the league average in both points allowed per game and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 46-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $6400, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
I have a feeling that I will be a lot higher on Hill than most tonight. He draws arguably the toughest matchup on the board, as Patrick Beverley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Beverley is listed as questionable though and even if he is able to suit up, the Rockets have been average against point guards over the last couple of weeks. Beverley’s nagging injuries may be affecting his play on the defensive end of floor. Combine that with the fact that Hill has scored at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Roy Hibbert (FD: $5300, DK: $4900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
I’m sure you are thinking, “Noto are you crazy!?” Hibbert has been on my radar very little this season, but trends are converging nicely for him tonight. His minutes and production are both trending upward. Over his last four games, he has averaged 28 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. He also draws a terrific matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 20th against opposing centers this season. At this price point, I’ll take the bait.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -4, 203 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Boston | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.48 | Team Pace | 94.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 27 | 8 | 28 | 17 | Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 22 | 23 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 19 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 22 | |
Boston
Marcus Smart is expected to return from his one game suspension, but the Celtics will be without Isaiah Thomas for at least one more game. The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and find themselves only a half-game behind the Hornets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are listed as 4-point underdogs tonight against the Nets, who are also in the playoff hunt. This should be a close game that offers quite a few fantasy options.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 29-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
I’m not a fan of Turner being listed as a point guard on DraftKings because it’s such a stacked position that I rarely find myself targeting Turner on that site. He is still listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel though. Coach Brad Stevens wants Turner to be more aggressive with Isaiah Thomas out of the lineup and we all know the type of upside that he provides. Turner has scored at least 37 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Secondary Plays
Jae Crowder (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Crowder will likely head back to the bench for tonight’s game against the Nets, but he should still see around 30 minutes of action with Isaiah Thomas out. Over his last five games, he has averaged 29 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He is a stat-stuffer that can fill up all statistical categories. Don’t be scared off of him tonight just because he is coming off of the bench.
Brooklyn
The Nets have won two games in a row and are now only one game behind the Hornets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are 4-point favorites tonight against the Celtics in a game that features a relatively high total of 203 points. This is a very favorable matchup for potential fantasy production. The Celtics play at a very quick pace and as a team, they have allowed the seventh-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 30-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $7600, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Lopez has been terrific over his last nine games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. Those numbers are a little inflated by his 66 fantasy point effort against the Bucks in triple-OT, but he is still playing at a very high level. Lopez has a high usage rate for a center and he is actually starting to rebound the ball, which is something that we haven’t seen from him in his career. He is in a great matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 23rd against centers this season.
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Young has been hit or miss recently, but that has kept his price at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He needs roughly 30 fantasy points to reach value expectations tonight. He’s certainly capable of that, as he has topped that mark four times in his last eight games. The Celtics have struggled to contain opposing bigs this season and Young offers good upside at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Bojan Bogdanovic (FD: $4000, DK: $3700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Bogdanovic’s minutes are trending in the right direction. Over his last four games, he has averaged 35 minutes per contest (also inflated from the OT game against the Bucks). During that stretch he has been very productive, as he has averaged 25.5 fantasy points per contest. He offers great value at his price point and he’ll likely go overlooked by the masses tonight.
Memphis at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -13, 185 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
| Memphis | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185 |  | Vegas Total | 185 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 86.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.36 | Team Pace | 93.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 25 | Opp. Season | 7 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 4 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they are desperately trying to hold everyone off for the second seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies shouldn’t have too much of a problem against a Knicks’ team that has lost eight of their last ten games. The Grizzlies are listed as 13-point favorites in a game that has the potential to turn into a blowout. Given the huge spread, I’ll likely be avoided Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-56
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Tony Allen (FD: $4800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Allen has flown under the radar the last couple of weeks. Tonight may be our last opportunity to 1. Take him at this price point and 2. Target him with a low ownership percentage. Over his last six games, Allen has averaged 26 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He will draw another start tonight, regardless if Courtney Lee suits up or not. Allen’s shot may be limited offensively, but he gets plenty of open looks around the rim, as he is always moving without the ball. I’m expecting a solid all-around game from Allen tonight against the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Green (FD: $5000, DK: $5700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Green is also in play regardless of whether or not Courtney Lee is able to play. Obviously if Lee is out, Green would likely see a small boost in minutes. Green has asked to come off the bench recently, which allows him to be more aggressive offensively. Green has averaged 30 fantasy points per game over his last three and he draws a friendly matchup against the Knicks.
New York
The Knicks have lost eight of their last ten games. They were already playing short-handed and it looks as if Alexey Shved may be forced out of tonight’s game. He is listed as questionable, but he left Sunday’s game with a rib contusion and was unable to return. Shane Larkin and Langston Galloway would both see a boost in Shved’s absence, but the rest of the Knicks can safely be avoided against a Grizzlies’ defense that has allowed the second-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 49-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $5200, DK: $4800) and Shane Larkin (FD: $3800, DK: $3500) would both see a sizable boost if Alexey Shved is unable to play tonight. Their matchup against the Grizzlies is less than ideal, but they would both become viable value options in Shved’s absence.
Charlotte at Chicago – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -6.5, 191 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Charlotte | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.53 | Team Pace | 95.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 9 | Opp. Season | 8 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 12 | 27 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets are 5-5 in their last ten games, but are still hanging onto that eight and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I was expecting at least one team to make a push down the stretch, but it doesn’t seem like any team wants that final playoff spot. The Hornets are 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls in a game that features a low total of 191 points. The Bulls have been stout defensively, ranking in the top half in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 42-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26)
Walker has started each of the last two games for the Hornets, scoring 33 and 44 fantasy points in each. Now that he is back in the starting lineup, he is no longer on a minutes-restriction. Tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on Walker. His price is depressed and he draws a fantastic matchup against the Bulls, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the last three weeks. Dollar for dollar, he may be my top play at point guard tonight.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $7900, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Jefferson is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. He is listed at a bargain price of only $6,800. At that price point, he only needs 34 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that feat, even in a tough matchup against Joakim Noah. Jefferson is a tough cover for anyone and he should see all of the minutes that he can handle, as every game is important for the Hornets at this point of the season.
Marvin Williams (FD: $4100, DK: $4300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
This pick hinges on the health of Cody Zeller. He sat out last night’s game against the Wolves and is listed as questionable for tonight. If Zeller is unable to suit up, Williams would push for 30+ minutes of action against a Bulls’ team that has been very average at defending power forwards this season.
Chicago
The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games, but got some great news this morning. Jimmy Butler made it through shoot-around and is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Now that the Bulls are starting to get players back, it really muddies the picture of where the fantasy production is going to come from on a nightly basis. It also doesn’t help that they are facing a Hornets’ team that has held their opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 30-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
Noah is the one Bulls’ player on my radar tonight. He is limited to 32 minutes a night, but that’s more than enough time for him to reach value, especially on DraftKings ($6,400). Noah has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He draws a decent matchup tonight against Al Jefferson, who has never been known as an elite defender. Noah should be able to post another solid all-around game tonight against the Hornets.
Minnesota at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -11.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Martin-Wiggins-Payne-Dieng
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Minnesota | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185.5 |  | Vegas Total | 185.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 87.0 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.43 | Team Pace | 92.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 1 | Opp. Season | 29 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 24 | |
Minnesota
Nikola Pekovic, Justin Hamilton, and Gary Neal have all been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Jazz. Kevin Garnett and Ricky Rubio are both doubtful, so it will be all hands on deck for the Wolves again tonight. The Wolves draw the worst matchup on the board though, as Jazz play at a slow pace and have the best defense in the entire NBA. On the season, the Jazz are ranked first in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 31-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.9 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Chase Budinger (FD: $4200, DK: $3700 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 16)
Gary Neal has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which bodes well for Budinger’s playing time. He has been a terrific value play over his four games, averaging 24 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. I am not hesitant to list him as an elite play tonight, given the lack of options at small forward. Budinger should see around 30 minutes of playing time tonight against the Jazz, regardless of the game’s outcome.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6400, DK: $6000), Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6700, DK: $6400), and Zach LaVine (FD: $5000, DK: $4900) are all fine secondary options tonight against the Jazz.
Utah
The Jazz are huge favorites at home tonight against the Wolves. The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season, while the Wolves have lost eight of their last ten games. One situation that we need to monitor here is the status of Gordon Hayward. He was unable to go through shoot-around this morning and he is currently being listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, that would give a small fantasy boost to Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, and Trey Burke.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 15-54
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
While Rudy Gobert may draw the most attention tonight, Favors is my favorite target in the Jazz frontcourt. He has an equally juicy matchup as Gobert, but his offensive game is much more polished. Favors has scored at least 33 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and he may see an uptick in usage if Gordon Hayward is unable to suit up. Favors should find success against a Wolves’ defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $7900, DK: $7900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Gobert’s price has come down a bit, but he still needs roughly 40 fantasy points to reach value. He has failed to reach that mark in each of his last five games. He’s certainly capable of breaking out against the Wolves tonight, but I’d rather target Favors if I had to choose between the two.
Trey Burke (FD: $5000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Burke continues to come off the bench, but he continues to be the main point guard for the Jazz. He has played well over his last four games, averaging 24 fantasy points in 26 minutes per contest. His minutes would likely be in the low 30’s tonight if Hayward is unable to play.