NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 24th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-24 19:14:34

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Brooklyn at New Orleans

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -1, 199 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Stiemsma

Brooklyn

The Nets offense is firing on all cylinders right now. They are averaging 109 points per game over their last four. The problem is that all of those points have not necessarily translated into fantasy production. The reasoning for this is that the Nets are such a complete team that they rarely have a single player exceed their expected output. Mason Plumlee makes a decent punt play at Center, Deron Williams has a nice matchup against Roberts, and Paul Pierce is under-priced on a couple of sites.

Shaun Livingston – Livingston will likely be the only player that I have exposure to on the Nets. He is averaging 25 FP’s per game over his last 8 and is still extremely cheap across the industry. He is under $4.6k on both FD and DK. He should easily reach value again tonight and is one of the best punt plays at PG.

New Orleans

The Pelicans face a Nets team that has recently played over and above their season average in terms of pace of play. That is factored into the total tonight which is set at 199 points. Eric Gordon is listed as day to day and is very questionable for tonight’s game. If he has to sit out, this gives a small boost to Tyreke Evans, Brian Roberts, and Austin Rivers. Of the three, Tyreke Evans is the only player that catches my eye. He has a very high ceiling and makes a great tournament play tonight.

Anthony Davis – Even though the Nets have been stout against bigs this season, they haven’t faced a player quite like the BROW. His length creates problems on both ends of the floor. Davis has been the top fantasy option in the league over the last two weeks. This is not an error on my part: Davis has topped 50 FP’s in 8 straight games.

Denver at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -10.5, 218 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Denver

The Nuggets have had a disappointing season, but they have won 5 of their last 7 games and you have to admit, they are fun to watch. The total for this game is set at 218 points which is the highest total on the board tonight. That said, the Thunder are holding opponents to the 10th fewest points per game this season and are ranked 1st and 3rd against SF’s and Centers.

I won’t be highlighting any plays on the Nuggets tonight, but I do think a few of them are in play. Ty Lawson price has come down across the industry and he has a favorable matchup against the Thunder who are ranked 24th against PG’s this season. Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arhtur are both in play here as well. With J.J. Hickson out for the season, it solidifies both of their minutes going forward.

Oklahoma City

It sounds like the Thunder are going to rest Russell Westbrook in one of their next two games. With the Thunder facing the Mavericks in Dallas tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them rest him tonight. If Westbrook does sit out that gives a nice fantasy boost to Reggie Jackson who would make a great fill in start at PG.

The Nuggets are giving up the 3rd most points per game this season and are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. That really bodes well the Thunder tonight. However, outside of Durant, Ibaka, and Jackson, I’m not sure if you can trust any of the other Thunder players.

Kevin Durant – Durant is in play tonight regardless of Westbrook’s availability, but he would see a small boost if Westbrook sits out. In 3 games against the Nuggets this season, Durant is averaging 33 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. If you are paying up for a superstar tonight, it’s hard to go wrong with Durant who has a floor of 45 FP’s.

Serge Ibaka – Taking bigs against the Nuggets has been a strategy that has paid off all season long. The Nuggets do not defend the paint well and they have terrible weak side defense. The Nuggets have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to PF’s this season and if Ibaka can pick up a few blocks, he has an extremely high ceiling.

Philadelphia at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -21.5, 212 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Philadelphia

This is not a game that I want to break down. The Spurs are 21.5 point favorites tonight against the Sixers who have now lost 24 games in a row. This game could be over by the end of the first quarter. That said, Coach Pop is very quick to rest or sit his starters, so the Sixers’ starters could very well be playing against the 2nd and 3rd units of the Spurs. I will likely be avoiding this game in cash games, but I think Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, James Anderson, and Tony Wroten all make solid tournament plays.

San Antonio

When a team faces the Sixers, you can typically count on some production from the starters because even if they sit the 4th quarter, they will have at least played 3 quarters against the league’s worst defense. That’s not the case with the Spurs. With Coach Pop being all about the playoffs, the starters aren’t guaranteed any playing time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pop sit a few players tonight. Even if he decides to play everyone, they will all likely see very limited minutes. Check the news throughout the day and if any of the Spurs sit out tonight, their backups could make some great punt plays.

Detroit at Utah

Vegas Line – Utah -1, 201.5 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Singler-Smith-Monroe
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter

Detroit

The Pistons are 1 point favorites tonight against the Jazz. This game should be a high scoring game that remains close throughout. This will be a pace-down game for the Pistons though as the Jazz are only averaging 93 possessions per game. The Jazz have not been great defensively this season. They are ranked 13th or worse against all five positions on the floor.

Josh Smith makes a terrific upside play for tournaments, but he’s always a risk in cash games thanks to his inconsistent play. Andre Drummond has looked good in back to back starts and has a nice matchup against the Jazz who are ranked 24th against Centers this season. Kyle Singler continues to make a solid punt play as he is still averaging over 35 minutes per game.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings is typically better served as a GPP play because of his inconsistent play, but his price has come down across the industry (under $6k on FD) and I really like his upside tonight against Burke and the Jazz who are ranked 21st against PG’s this season. He’s risky, but I think he will pay off in a big way tonight.

Utah

The Jazz have a very nice matchup tonight against the Pistons. The Pistons play at a fast pace and are giving up the 4th most points per game this season. The Jazz will be without Alec Burks again tonight which means Richard Jefferson, Gordon Hayward, and Trey Burke should all be locked in for big minutes.

The Pistons are ranked 16th or worse against all five positions on the floor and you can make a case for all five starters here. Enes Kanter is one of the sneakier plays tonight, he has played 36 and 38 minutes in his last two games and has a terrific matchup. Trey Burke has great home splits and a nice matchup against Jennings. If you want to punt the PG position, Burke is certainly in play.

Gordon Hayward – Hayward often let’s us down in great matchups, but I love the upside that he provides at his price point. The Pistons can not defend anyone and Hayward has that 40-45 FP ceiling. This may sound crazy, but I will likely be targeting both Jennings and Hayward in cash games tonight.

Milwaukee at L.A.Clippers

Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -15.5, 209.5 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Henson-Pachulia
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Milwaukee

The Bucks are ready for the offseason. They got blown out of the gym last night against the Kings and will likely experience the same fate tonight against the Clippers. The Clippers are 15.5 point favorites which actually seems a bit low. Nate Wolters has been ruled out for the season though so Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to see all of the minutes he can handle going forward. I like him as a punt play tonight, but will be avoiding all of his teammates.

L.A.Clippers

This is a terrific matchup for the Clippers bigs, but I’m just not sure how many minutes they are going to see. The Bucks struggle to defend the paint and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Hopefully you took my advice yesterday and took Cousins against them. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are both in play, but I think Jordan is the safer of the two. Darren Collison may go overlooked tonight now that Jamal Crawford is back in the mix. His price has come way down and I think he should easily reach value on most sites.