NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 30th - Page Two
Sacramento at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -8.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Gay-Cousins
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Carter-Randolph-Gasol
| Sacramento | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.92 | Team Pace | 94.33 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Vince Carter | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 26 | 16 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 26 | 14 | |
Sacramento
Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins (rest) will not play in tonight’s game.
The Kings draw an extremely tough matchup tonight, as they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. The Kings are listed as 8.5-point underdogs with their team total set at only 94.5 points. The Grizzlies are ranked second in points allowed per game this season and they love to make their opponents play down to their pace. There are enough games on the schedule tonight that we don’t need to take any risks by rostering the Kings. DeMarcus Cousins is an appealing tournament option, but it’s tough to justify paying his salary in a matchup against Marc Gasol.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 50-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are only one game behind the Rockets and only one game ahead of the Blazers and Clippers. They are still playing for seeding in the Western Conference, which means we should see the starters play their usual complement of minutes tonight. The Grizzlies draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 29th in points allowed per game this season. The only concern here is a potential blowout, as this game has the largest spread on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 26-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $7300, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
The Kings will likely stick with their smaller starting lineup tonight, which means Randolph will match up against Rudy Gay. We saw Gay defend Anthony Davis well, but this is a different matchup. Gay was able to use his length against Davis. Randolph will just look to back him down and use his body to create separation. The Grizzlies will look to exploit this mismatch early and often. It also helps that Randolph’s price is depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Gasol has posted back-to-back outings of less than 30 fantasy points. There is no reason to be alarmed though, as he still has one of the highest floors of any center at his price point. Gasol has had success against DeMarcus Cousins in the past, but I have him listed as secondary option for two reason. 1. Rudy Gobert is my top play at center and 2. This game could potentially turn into a blowout, depending on which Kings’ team shows up.
Phoenix at Portland – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -8, 201.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Phoenix | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.08 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 5 | Opp. Season | 15 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 14 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 10 | |
Phoenix
The Suns blew a perfect opportunity to gain ground on the Thunder last night, as they blew a lead and eventually lost the game. They are now four full games behind the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. This could end up being a letdown game for the Suns, as they had a tough loss last night and now have to play in the second half of a back-to-back. Their matchup against the Blazers doesn’t help their cause either, as Portland is ranked 10th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 47-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Marcus Morris (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Marcus has played so well that it appears he will keep his gig as a starter, even now that Brandon Knight is back in the mix. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points per contest. He is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he deserves the elite play tag as long as he remains in the starting lineup tonight. He was able to score 39 fantasy points against this same Blazers’ team less than a week ago.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Markieff is also playing some great basketball recently. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 34 fantasy points per contest. The two Morris brothers have similar upside and if I’m forced to choose between the two, I’ll take the one with the cheaper price tag. In this case, that would be Marcus. That said, it may not be a bad idea to roster both brothers, especially on DraftKings where you can use both for a price of only $12,400.
Portland
The Blazers are still fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so there will be no resting of starters anytime soon. They are listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Suns, who have really struggled defensively this season. The Suns play at a very quick pace and are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season. The Blazers are projected to score 105 points tonight, which is one of the highest team totals on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 38-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9500, DK: $9200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge had a huge second half against the Suns on Friday night. He basically took over in the fourth quarter and led his team to victory. He gets to face the same team tonight; only this time he will face them on his home floor. The Suns are a terrific matchup for potential fantasy production, as they are a below-average rebounding team that has struggled to contain Aldridge in the past.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Is it just me or does it seem like Lillard tends to let us down when faced with a favorable matchup? After scoring 51 fantasy points in a tough matchup against the Jazz, he only scored a combined 44 fantasy points in two favorable matchup against the Suns and the Nuggets. Lillard is in play tonight, but I have a hard time using him in cash games, as he has a bad track record of letting us down in favorable matchups.