NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS NBA news.
L.A. Lakers at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -4.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Johnson-Kelly-Black
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Covington-Grant-Noel-Aldemir
| L.A. Lakers | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.48 | Team Pace | 98.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Furkan Aldemir | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 15 | 25 | 30 | Opp. Season | 30 | 23 | 21 | 12 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 9 | 11 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers head to Philadelphia for a battle between two teams that aren’t trying to win at this point in the season. The Lakers are listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 193.5 points. This is a favorable matchup for L.A., as the Sixers are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential this season. Jeremy Lin is listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game. If he is able to play, he immediately becomes a top option at point guard. If he is forced to miss another game, give a boost to both Jordan Clarkson and Wayne Ellington.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 18-55
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Clarkson is a borderline elite play tonight if Jeremy Lin is ruled out. Clarkson has played well over his last four games, averaging 35 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. If Lin is ruled out, his minutes at point guard would be solidified. He draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season.
Wesley Johnson (FD: $3900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Johnson is a decent punt at small forward tonight. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of his last five games and should log heavy minutes tonight against the Sixers. He only needs to score 20 fantasy points to meet value expectations, which is certainly in reach against the fast-paced Sixers.
Philadelphia
The Sixers can tie the Lakers in the win column with a victory tonight. There is little to be gained with a win though and both teams would prefer to lose at this point. On paper, this is one of the best matchups on the board. The Lakers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 13th in rebounding differential this season. Even though the total for the game may not be very high, this is still a terrific game to target for fantasy production, as both teams like to play at a quick pace.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 19-52
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
I don’t know if I’m more impressed with Noel’s upside or his consistency. He has been outstanding over his last ten games, averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has scored at least 49 fantasy points three times. He draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 12th against power forwards and 25th against centers this season.
Ish Smith (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 11 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Smith has always had the upside, but he hasn’t consistently seen 30 minutes of playing time until recently. Over his last six games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest. Smith has a high usage rate and a unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5200, DK: $4800) and Furkan Aldemir (FD: $3500, DK: $3000)are both in play against the Lakers, assuming they both stay in the starting lineup. The Sixers have really mixed up their rotations recently, so only use Covington and Aldemir if they are listed among the starters.
Boston at Charlotte – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -3.5, 194 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-Williams-Jefferson
| Boston | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.37 | Team Pace | 95.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Jeff Taylor | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 2 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Season | 20 | 3 | 18 | 22 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 27 | |
Boston
If this game was being played a month ago, there would be very few people watching, as a game between the Celtics and Hornets doesn’t scream excitement. Both teams are fighting for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference though, so this should be a very competitive game. The Celtics draw a tough matchup for potential fantasy production, as the Hornet are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. With Isaiah Thomas back in the mix, it’s hard to predict individual production on a nightly basis.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 31-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jae Crowder (FD: $5400, DK: $5200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Crowder was a letdown for quite a few people last night. He picked up three quick fouls in the first half and was never really able to get it going after that. Crowder had been playing well before yesterday’s dud though, scoring at least 21 fantasy points in each of his previous eight contests. Look for him to bounce back tonight against a Hornets’ team that is missing their best defender in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Charlotte
The Hornets are currently a half-game behind the Celtics and a full game behind the Nets in the Eastern Conference standings. A win tonight could go a long way toward the team reaching their goal of making the playoffs. The Hornets are listed as 3.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 194 points. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller are both considered questionable.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 32-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $7500, DK: $7400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26)
Walker has played well since being inserted back into the starting lineup. Over his last six games, he has averaged 35 fantasy points per contest. Walker and the Hornets are in must-win mode for the rest of the season and we should continue to see him log heavy minutes. He draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics tonight, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $5700, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out, Henderson should see an uptick in minutes in his absence. In his first start without MKG in the lineup, Henderson scored 31 fantasy points against the Hawks on Saturday night. He has now scored at least 24 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. Henderson has a high floor and a high ceiling tonight. The one knock on him is that he’ll likely be defended by Avery Bradley.
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams (FD: $4500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Cody Zeller and Al Jefferson are both questionable for tonight’s game. If one, or both are forced to sit out, Williams would log heavy minutes in the Hornets’ frontcourt. He has played well over his last seven games, averaging 21 fantasy points per contest. His salary is still under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Milwaukee at Atlanta – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 194 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Schroder-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Milwaukee | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 96.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Season | 1 | 15 | 24 | 13 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games and are getting dangerously close to fighting for their playoff lives. They are four games ahead of the Celtics and Pacers, who are ninth and tenth in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hawks, who have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. The Bucks are 7.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 93 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 55-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Giannis is always a little hit or miss, but he has scored at least 31 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He has the unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and when he’s playing well, Jason Kidd is not afraid to play him 40+ minutes. His matchup against the Hawks is a difficult one though, which is why he is listed as a secondary option tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Ilyasova is playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He is not a recommended option in cash games, but he does deserve consideration as a tournament play thanks to his upside. He is also still very affordable on FanDuel at a price under $6,000.
Atlanta
The Hawks rested all five starters on Saturday night against the Hornets. With the top seed in the Eastern Conference locked up, they don’t have a whole lot to play for at this point. I would imagine that the starters would be back in the lineup tonight, but there will not be guaranteed minutes for any of the Hawks’ players down the stretch of the regular season. Add in a tough matchup against the Bucks and the Hawks are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight. The one exception would be if Jeff Teague is unable to play. If he is ruled out, Dennis Schroder would make a fine play at point guard tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 36-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
If Jeff Teague is forced to miss another game tonight, Dennis Schroder (FD: $5700, DK: $5600) would draw the start. He would immediately become one of the top point guard options on the board.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at Toronto – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 207 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Dorsey
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Houston | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.14 | Team Pace | 95.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 28 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 12 | |
Houston
The Rockets will be without Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and Patrick Beverley tonight, as they take on the Raptors in Toronto. With so many injuries, the rest of the starters are going to have to make up for that lost production. They will also be asked to play a few extra minutes, which means we can give the entire Rockets’ team a fantasy boost. They draw a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential this season. Don’t be afraid to load up on Rockets’ players tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 43-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11600, DK: $11500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
It will be all hands on deck for the Rockets tonight and Harden is going to be asked to take over offensively. He has had no problem picking up the slack in the past and I doubt he’ll have a problem with it tonight against the Raptors. Harden is a very tough fade in cash games tonight in what is expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair against Toronto. If this game stays close, I see his floor around 45 fantasy points with a ceiling that is much, much higher.
Josh Smith (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
With Dwight Howard, Donatas Motiejunas, and Terrence Jones out tonight, Smith is as close to a must play as we are going to find tonight. He should see all of the playing time that he can handle and he should be considered the top play (dollar for dollar) at any position. Smith has scored 43 and 33 fantasy points in his last two games and should be able post a similar outing tonight against Toronto.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
With all of the injuries to the Rockets, Ariza should see a sizable uptick in minutes and possibly usage as well. He has played well over his last eight games, averaging 32 fantasy points per contest. He has played at least 38 minutes in each of the last three games and will likely see a similar number of minutes tonight. He’s a low-risk option at small forward that makes a great play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Corey Brewer (FD: $5100, DK: $5100) and Jason Terry (FD: $3700, DK: $3800) are both in play against the Raptors as well. Both are listed as secondary options, as they are my fourth and fifth-favorite Rockets to target tonight.
Toronto
The Raptors will likely be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. He is still without a timetable to return and the Raptors will give him all of the time he needs to heal. The Raptors are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Rockets in a game that features a total of 207 points. This is expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which is typically great for fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 49-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
As long as Kyle Lowry is out, DeRozan will continue to be the primary playmaker in the Raptors offense. He has played well over his last six games, averaged 35 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest. He should push for upward of 40 minutes tonight against the Rockets in what is expected to be a high scoring game. James Harden has never been an elite defender and the Rockets don’t have any elite shot blockers to protect the rim.
Greivis Vasquez (FD: $4000, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21)
Vasquez was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments on Friday night, as he only finished with 14 fantasy points against the Lakers. Recency bias tells us that a lot of people will fade Vasquez tonight, which provides us with an opportunity to target him on a night where his percentage of ownership will be low. Vasquez draws a favorable matchup against a Rockets’ team that is missing their best defender in Patrick Beverley.
Secondary Plays
Lou Williams (FD: $4800, DK: $4900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
This pick also hinges on the health of Kyle Lowry, but as I mentioned above, it doesn’t sound like Lowry will be returning anytime soon. Williams has scored 23 and 27 fantasy points in his last two games and should see minutes in the high 20’s tonight against the Rockets. He remains a terrific fantasy option as long as Lowry remains out with his injury.
Utah at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -4.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Hood-Hayward-Booker-Gobert
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brown-Wiggins-Payne-Dieng
| Utah | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185.5 |  | Vegas Total | 185.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 90.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.49 | Team Pace | 97.08 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Trevor Booker | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Lorenzo Brown | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 28 | Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 14 | 24 | 6 | 1 | |
Utah
This game features two teams with very different styles of play. The Jazz have held their opponents to the fewest number of points per game, while the Wolves are ranked dead last in that category, giving up an average of 106 points per game. This is a terrific matchup for the Jazz, as the Wolves continue to struggle on the defensive end of the floor. Derrick Favors is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit out, Trevor Booker would draw another start in his place and become a viable value option at power forward.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-56
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8400, DK: $8400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Even if Derrick Favors is able to play tonight, Gobert is the premium option at center tonight. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and he is coming off of a huge 47 fantasy point outing the Thunder. Gobert draws a favorable matchup against a depleted Wolves’ frontcourt. These teams met up a little more than a week ago and Gobert dominated the paint with 18 points, 17 rebounds, and 6 blocks.
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8100, DK: $8000) and Trey Burke (FD: $5500, DK: $5300)are both in play as secondary options.
Minnesota
Gorgui Dieng is the latest Wolves’ player to be added to the injury report, after he suffered a facial contusion in yesterday’s game against the Pelicans. He will join Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin as questionable for tonight’s game against the Jazz. Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett, and Gary Neal are closer to doubtful. This is arguably the worst matchup on the board. The Jazz are ranked first in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 32-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.1 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6800, DK: $6800), Zach LaVine (FD: $5200, DK: $5600), and Chase Budinger (FD: $5000, DK: $4900) are all viable options against the Jazz, but their fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin.