NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-31 19:45:38

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Washington at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Charlotte -3, 193.5 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Washington

MLB is underway, but that doesn’t mean that the NBA season is over. We still have a couple of weeks of regular season basketball before getting into the playoffs. There are 10 games on the schedule today which is a large slate for a Monday night. The Wizards travel to Charlotte to take on a top 5 defense of the Bobcats. The Bobcats like to slow the pace of the game down and are ranked 9th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. It sounds like Nene Hilario will travel with the team so make sure to keep your eye on his status for tonight.

Marcin Gortat – You could also go with John Wall here, but his numbers take a hit when he is on the road. Gortat should see all of the minutes he can handle defending Big Al. Gortat is not a player that typically gets into foul trouble which is a bonus. The Bobcats are ranked 19th against Centers this season and Gortat should make for a safe cash game play.

Charlotte

The Bobcats are facing a Wizards team that plays at an average pace and owns an average defense. The total of this game suggests that this game will be played at a pretty slow pace which is never great for fantasy value. If you look at the DvP rankings of the Wizards, they are ranked 17th or better against all five positions on the floor. Kemba Walker does have great home splits though so if you can find him for a cheap price, don’t hesitate using him against Wall. Al Jefferson is also worth a look tonight, he has been unstoppable even in tough matchups this season. Both should be considered average options unless you can take them at a discount.

San Antonio at Indiana

Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 188 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

San Antonio

The Spurs have a very tough matchup tonight against the Pacers. Their winning streak is still alive (17 games) and I think they may be able to pick up another win tonight. The problem is that this game will be played at a slow pace and should be fairly low scoring. The Pacers defense is back to their dominant selves as they have held opponents to under 93 points in 8 straight games. The Pacers are also ranked 7th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. Don’t overthink this one, just avoid the Spurs tonight.

Indiana

The Pacers face a Spurs defense that is holding their opponents to 97.4 points per game which is the 4th fewest in the league. That means that this game features 2 of the top 4 defenses. That does not bode well for either team tonight in terms of fantasy value. Taking a look at the Spurs DvP rankings, the two positions that they have been susceptible to are PG and Center. George Hill makes a decent punt play at PG, he has topped 22 FP’s in back to back games. Roy Hibbert is cheap across the industry, but he has been in a terrible slump and is probably best to avoid at this point.

Philadelphia at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Atlanta -12.5, 211.5 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic

Philadelphia

The Sixers picked up a win the other night against the Pistons to end their terrible losing streak. Even though the streak is over, Vegas still doesn’t have any faith in this team. They are 12.5 point underdogs tonight against the Hawks in a game that features one of the higher totals of the night. The Hawks are giving up the 11th most points per game this season and are ranked 18th or worse against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. Henry Sims makes a nice play at Center, he has really been a productive fantasy player over the last few weeks.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW has topped 37 FP’s in 3 of his last 6 games and has been playing close to 40 minutes in games that are somewhat close. I think the Sixers can keep this one competitive and MCW makes a great play at PG. There are few players at his price point that have as much upside as MCW and the Hawks are ranked 21st against PG’s this season.

Thaddeus Young – Young had a very nice game the other night against the Pistons and now gets to face a Hawks team that has struggled to defend the paint all season long. Thad has the ability to post 40+ FP games every night which makes him a terrific tournament play. The Hawks have surrendered the 7th most FP’s to PF’s this season.

Atlanta

The Hawks have a very nice matchup against the Sixers, but the Sixers have actually slowed their pace of play down lately and haven’t given up nearly as many FP’s as they did early in the season. Don’t get me wrong, this is still the NBA’s worst defense, but I’m not sure that tonight is the night to stack 4-5 Hawks players in your lineups. Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll are both hoping to be back for tonight’s game, if they do end up playing, that ends the run for Shelvin Mack and Mike Scott as value plays.

Paul Millsap – Millsap has not played well against the Sixers this season, but he only averaged 24 minutes per game in the first two meetings. That numbers should increase dramatically tonight. The Sixers do not defend the paint well and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Both of which bode well for Millsap tonight. He’s one of my favorite plays in the industry.

Jeff Teague – The Sixers are actually ranked 14th against opposing PG’s over the last 15 days, but I still love the matchup for Teague tonight. He will look to push the pace and create some easy opportunities for himself and his teammates. Teague can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and should be targeted in ALL leagues tonight.

Milwaukee at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -6.5, 206 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Milwaukee

The Bucks travel to Detroit and are only 6.5 point underdogs. That says a lot more about how the Pistons are playing than how the Bucks are playing. The Pistons have given up the 4th most points per game this season and are ranked 16th or worse against all five positions on the floor. The Bucks have been a hard team to predict all season long as Coach Drew continues to mix up his rotations. I like Brandon Knight here, he has a nice matchup against Jennings and has the revenge factor as well. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo both make nice punt options on the wing.

Jeff Adrien – Adrien has been a bit of a disappointment since being inserted into the starting lineup, but his price is still cheap across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons who have not defended the paint well this season. Adrien should be a lock for 20+ FP’s here with the upside of 30+.

Detroit

The Pistons are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Sixers and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back tonight. In terms of fantasy value, this is a very favorable matchup for the Pistons. The Bucks are ranked 19th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers this season and have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league all season long. Brandon Jennings does have a revenge game, but Knight is a very tough defender and I’m not taking the bait. Josh Smith has been quiet of late, but always has good upside and makes sense as a tournament play.

Andre Drummond – Is it just me or does Drummond seem to disappoint when he has a favorable matchup? Hopefully that’s not the case tonight. The Bucks don’t have anyone to keep Drummond off the glass and he should be able to dominate both ends of the floor. Factoring in price, Drummond is my favorite play at Center tonight. Zaza and Henson just aren’t very solid low post defenders.

Greg Monroe – Monroe has been the one Pistons player that has consistently played well lately. He also has a very favorable matchup against the Bucks’ frontcourt who do not defend the paint well and struggle to rebound the ball. I am going to have exposure to both Drummond and Monroe tonight and it may not be a bad idea to take them both in cash games.

Toronto at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 192.5 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Douglas-Jones-James-Bosh

Toronto

The Raptors are 5.5 point underdogs against the Heat tonight. While I am excited to watch this game as a basketball fan, I’m not too excited about the fantasy potential in this game. The total is only set at 192.5 points and the Heat are holding their opponents to the 6th fewest points per game this season. The Heat are ranked 1st or 2nd against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season which really hurts the value of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. If you are targeting anyone here, target the bigs of the Raptors. The Heat are the second worst rebounding team in the league and are ranked 17th and 26th against PF’s and Centers this season.

Miami

The Heat are also in a tough matchup tonight. The Raptors are tied with the Heat as they are also holding opponents to the 6th fewest points per game. The Raptors have been very solid defensively this season and are ranked 11th or better against all five positions this season. If all of the Heat players are active tonight, avoid them altogether, however, if any of the Big 3 or Chalmers are out, then you may be able to plug in some value plays from the Heat.