NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 9th - Page Two
New York at Denver – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -9, 203 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Hardaway-Early-Smith-Bargnani
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
| New York | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.29 | Team Pace | 98.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Cleanthony Early | Jason Smith | Andrea Bargnani | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 23 | Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 22 | 27 | 16 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 14 | 11 | |
New York
The Knicks own the worst record in the NBA. They currently own a two-game advantage over the Sixers and Wolves for that honor. At this point, every win moving forward could cost them ping-pong balls in the lottery. Simply put, they have nothing to play for at this point in the season. The Knicks are 9-point underdogs tonight against the Nuggets. It’s a favorable matchup for sure, but there is only one fantasy option on my radar here.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 22-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Bargnani’s price has come up a bit, but it still doesn’t match his recent level of production. If you throw his game out his game against the Kings (he only played 18 minutes in a blowout), Bargnani has averaged 33 fantasy points per game over his last five. He draws a premier matchup against a Nuggets frontcourt that is ranked 30th against power forwards and 23rd against centers.
Secondary Plays
None
Denver
The Nuggets are only 2-2 under interim head coach Melvin Hunt, but there is no arguing the fact that they have been playing with more effort since the departure of Brian Shaw. The Nuggets draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential this season. This is a terrific matchup, but there is some concern that this game could be over by the end of the third quarter.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 12-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
In the first four games post-Brian Shaw, Faried has averaged 34 fantasy points per contest. We’ve been waiting for Faried to break out of his funk the entire season and it appears that he has finally done so. As much as it pains me to say it, Faried is a strong in ALL league formats tonight. The Knicks’ frontcourt is very beatable and Faried’s energy should be no match for the likes of Andrea Bargnani, Jason Smith, and Cole Aldrich.
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $5400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Gallinari is one of my favorites plays at small forward tonight. His minutes and production are both trending in the right direction and he’s still affordable on most DFS sites. Gallinari is playing his best basketball of the season right now. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $7700, DK: $7000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Lawson should fly under the radar tonight against the Knicks, making him an appealing option for tournaments. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last four games and he draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season.
Golden State at Phoenix – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Barron
| Golden State | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.75 | Team Proj. | 104.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.96 | Team Pace | 99.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Earl Barron | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 23 | 25 | 9 | 21 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 17 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 5 | 24 | 11 | 20 | |
Golden State
The Warriors own the best record in the NBA. They have won seven of their last ten games, as they head to Phoenix to take on the Suns. The Warriors are 5.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 214.5 points. Assuming this game stays close, it should be chock-full of fantasy options tonight. The Warriors are projected to score 110 points tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 33-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $9500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
Curry’s price on DraftKings puts him in the “elite play” category tonight. At $9,500, he needs roughly 47 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that and much more, as he has averaged 46 per game (DK scoring) this season. He draws a fantastic matchup against the uptempo Suns, who have allowed the third-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Draymond Green (FD: $8300, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Green’s price is all over the map tonight. He’s $8,300 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings. He is a much stronger play on DK, as he needs five less fantasy points to reach value than he does on FD. Green is coming off of a monster seven-game stretch, where he has averaged 40 fantasy points per contest. He should have another big outing tonight in a fast-paced game against the Suns.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Thompson’s price is depressed and he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns. While both boost his fantasy appeal, his recent slump is holding him back from being an elite play tonight. Thompson has failed to reach 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He’ll also have to lock horns against Brandon Knight, who is a very good perimeter defender.
Phoenix
The Suns have fallen apart defensively and it has cost them a few games over the last few weeks. They have lost six of their last ten games and are now two and a half games behind the Thunder for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The Suns have a tall task ahead of them tonight, as they host the Warriors. The good news is that they are projected to score 105 points against a team that is ranked first in defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 49-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6700, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Morris may not be the most consistent player in the NBA, but his up and down play helps keep his price at a very playable level. He is priced under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He makes an intriguing tournament play in what should be a very high scoring game against the Warriors.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Tucker has been one of the most reliable options at small forward over the last three weeks. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Warriors, who have struggled to defend opposing small forwards in recent weeks.
Minnesota at L.A. Clippers – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -8, 208 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
| Minnesota | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8 | Vegas Sprd | -8 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100 | Team Proj. | 108 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.51 | Team Pace | 96.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 26 | 17 | 15 | Opp. Season | 29 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 20 | 28 | 18 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 3 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves have lost seven of their last ten games, but they are a much better team now that Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin are back in the lineup. The Wolves are 8-point underdogs tonight against the Clippers, but they should be able to keep this one within striking distance. The Clippers are an above average matchup, as they are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 17th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 40-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Ricky Rubio (FD: $8400, DK: $8300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
A lot of people will see Rubio’s matchup against Chris Paul and immediately think to avoid him tonight. Don’t rule him out though, as Rubio isn’t your average run-of-the-mill point guard. He is able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he doesn’t rely on scoring for the majority of his fantasy production. He has been on a tear over the last couple of weeks, including a 49 fantasy point outing against this same Clippers’ team.
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Wiggins has become a very predictable player, which is great in DFS. He is going to play close to 40 minutes every night and he’s going to have a fairly high usage rate in the offense. Wiggins has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last four games and he draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who have have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6700, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Martin’s production has been down over the last couple of weeks, but he is coming off of a 41 fantasy point outing against the Blazers. Martin can catch fire at any time and he’s affordable on DraftKings at $6,000.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are expected to be without Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford tonight, as they host the visiting T-Wolves. Vegas doesn’t seem to mind though, as they have the Clippers listed as 8-point favorites in this game. The Clippers’ team total is set at 108 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10700, DK: $10600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
With Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford out, Paul will continue to carry the load offensively for the Clippers. He has been tremendous over his last seven games, averaging 25 points, 4 rebounds, and 12 assists per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Paul is the premier play at point guard tonight and I don’t mind paying up for him.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Redick (FD: $4800, DK: $5100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
With Jamal Crawford out, Redick will continue to log heavy minutes for the Clippers. Over his last five games, Redick has averaged 25 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.