NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 9th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Washington at Charlotte – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -1.5, 189.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Washington | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 94.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.93 | Team Pace | 95.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Season | 12 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 16 | |
Washington
The Wizards are in a tailspin. They have lost eight of their last ten games and have fallen down to the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference. They now have to head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets team that has won it’s last five games. The Wizards are still getting love from the oddsmakers though, as they are listed as 1.5-point favorites tonight. The total of the game is set at only 189 points though, which is one of the lowest totals on tonight’s schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 28-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $6400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Gortat had a disappointing first half of the season, but he’s broken out of that slump recently. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 33.5 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. His price has come up across the industry, but it’s still fairly cheap for a player that has been as productive as Gortat has been over the last couple of weeks. He should log heavy minutes tonight against Al Jefferson and the Hornets.
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Wall is coming off of a terrific four-game stretch, averaging 39 fantasy points per contest. His price is at one of its lowest points of the season and this may be the time to buy low on the All-Star. While the Hornets have been stingy against point guards this season, their DvP ranking has taken a hit since they acquired Mo Williams. Wall should be able to post a similar outing as Reggie Jackson did against the Hornets last night (25 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists).
Charlotte
The Hornets have won five games in a row and are now firmly in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. With only 21 games left in the regular season, they will have a tough time catching the Bucks for the sixth-seed, but you never know. Tonight they host the Wizards, who continue to play at a subpar level. Even though the game has a low total, the Wizards defense is not what it used to be.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 35-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8400, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Jefferson is a borderline elite play on DraftKings at a price of $7,700. He has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. During that stretch, he has scored 40+ fantasy points in every game. His matchup against Marcin Gortat is tough, but the Wizards have struggled to defend centers in recent weeks.
Mo Williams (FD: $7400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Kemba Walker is targeting Wednesday for his return to the lineup, which means Williams will be the main point guard for the Hornets for at least one more game. Since joining the team, he has averaged 37 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. His price has finally caught up to his production, but he’s still in play tonight, as he has scored at least 33 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games.
Sacramento at Atlanta – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -11, 208 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Sacramento | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 96.23 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 18 | 8 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 7 | 21 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 20 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 15 | 13 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have lost three in a row and seven of their last ten. They will likely be headed for another loss tonight, as they take on the Hawks in Atlanta. The Kings are listed as 11-point underdogs with their team total set at at 98.5 points. This is one of the toughest matchups in the NBA, as the Hawks are ranked fourth in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season. Given the matchup and the potential blowout, DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are both secondary options tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 49-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10800, DK: $9700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.6)
Cousins is still under $10,000 on DraftKings, which puts him in play against anyone. He has 50+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and he’s actually coming off of back-to-back outings with at least 54 fantasy points. Cousins has tremendous upside, but the potential blowout leaves him as a better tournament play than a cash game play.
Rudy Gay (FD: $8400, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Gay is also coming off of huge outings in back-to-back games. After scoring 58 fantasy points against the Magic, he backed it up with 47 fantasy points against the Heat. His price has come up on FanDuel, but he is still cheap on DraftKings at a price of only $7,700. He’s worth a look tonight at small forward, which is a thin position once again.
Atlanta
The Hawks have the first-seed in the Eastern Conference all but locked up, but they have their sight set on home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. They are only one game behind the Warriors in the loss column for the best record in the entire NBA. The Hawks should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the Kings. This is an extremely favorable matchup, but the potential for a blowout comes into play here.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 21-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7500, DK: $8000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
The combination of a well-balanced offense and a potential blowout has the Hawks listed as secondary options tonight against the Kings. Millsap’s price on FanDuel is awfully enticing though, as he only needs roughly 37 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He’s certainly capable of that tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 21st against power forwards.
Jeff Teague (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Teague has one of my favorite combination in his favor tonight. His price is depressed across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against a team that is ranked 27th against point guards. Teague has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last four games and has a good chance to reach value at his depressed price.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5500, DK: $4700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Carroll is worth a look on FanDuel, but he’s a much better play on DraftKings at a price of only $4,700. He basically needs 23 fantasy points to reach value, which he is certainly capable of, considering the fact that 24.1 fantasy points per game on the season. Carroll offers great value at a position that lacks options.
Boston at Miami – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -3, 200 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Turner-Crowder-Bass-Zeller
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| Boston | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.51 | Team Pace | 92.78 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 12 | Opp. Season | 19 | 2 | 24 | 26 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 28 | 28 | |
Boston
The Celtics are expected to be without Avery Bradley again tonight. He is targeting Wednesday for his return to the lineup. Jae Crowder will continue to start in his place, while Marcus Smart and Isaiah Thomas will both see extended playing time as well. The Celtics head to Miami to take on the Heat in a game that should be close and fairly high-scoring. The Celtics are 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 200 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 28-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Jae Crowder (FD: $5100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Crowder will draw another start tonight at small forward, which solidifies his minutes in the Celtics rotation. He has been extremely productive over his last nine games, averaging 26 fantasy points per contest. Crowder should see 30+ minutes tonight against a Heat team that has played at a quicker pace since acquiring Goran Dragic.
Marcus Smart (FD: $5000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Smart has played at least 34 minutes and he’s scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last three games. His price across the industry is very playable and he should log heavy minutes again tonight with Avery Bradley out. Smart is certainly capable of scoring 25+ fantasy points against a Heat team that has struggled against point guards in recent weeks.
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $5900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
When Avery Bradley went down, Turner was one of the most likely beneficiaries in his absence. He hasn’t really stepped up to the plate in the last couple of games, but he’s worth a look as a tournament play tonight against the Heat. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and we know the type of upside that he provides.
Miami
The Heat are not trying to win over the hearts of the daily fantasy sports community. After listing their entire team as questionable for Saturday night’s game, they’ve done the same again tonight. Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, and Hassan Whiteside are all game-time decisions against the Celtics. Obviously, their availability will change the outlook of the other starters.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 25-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7700, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.9)
Wade has been dealing with a few nagging injuries, but he’s not listed on the injury report for tonight’s game against the Celtics. He should be in the lineup and he should be the primary playmaker in the offense, especially if Goran Dragic is unable to play. Wade has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Wade also sees a boost with Avery Bradley out, as he is the Celtics’ best perimeter defender.
Secondary Plays
TBD – This all depends on the availability of Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, and Hassan Whiteside.
Memphis at Chicago – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 185 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Memphis | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185 |  | Vegas Total | 185 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 90.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.18 | Team Pace | 95.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 9 | Opp. Season | 5 | 11 | 18 | 4 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 16 | 24 | 12 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies have lost five of their last ten games, but they still have a two-game lead over the Rockets for the third-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies hit the road and head to Chicago for tonight’s game against the Bulls. The Grizzlies are listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features the lowest total (185) on tonight’s schedule. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 94 points tonight, which is markedly lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 39-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Gasol gets to face his older brother tonight. While Pau may be a little more polished offensively, Marc is the better defender of the two, and it’s not even close. Gasol is a safe cash game option tonight thanks to his high floor. He does draw a tough matchup against the Bulls though, as they have held opposing centers to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game this season.
Chicago
The Bulls have lost five of their last ten games, but they have actually picked up games on the Raptors and Wizards, who have both lost eight of their last ten. The Bulls will look to pick up a tough win over the Grizzlies tonight. This is a very tough matchup on paper, as the Grizzlies have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. While the matchup is tough, the Bulls’ players will continue to log heavy minutes with Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, and Taj Gibson still out.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 44-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $5500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21)
Mirotic has made the most of his increased playing time recently. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. While I don’t love the matchup against the Grizzlies, Mirotic is still underpriced on FanDuel at $5,500. He’s an elite play at that price point, even against the best defensive team in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
If you need a value play at small forward, you can do much worse than Dunleavy. His minutes have gone up recently and he has averaged 20 fantasy points per game over his last four outings. He has a decent chance of hitting value tonight against Jeff Green and the Grizzlies.
New Orleans at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1.5, 186.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| New Orleans | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186.5 |  | Vegas Total | 186.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 94.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.00 | Team Pace | 96.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 22 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 19 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans have won seven of their last ten games and are now only one game behind the Thunder for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The Pelicans will look for another win tonight, as they travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. The Pelicans are listed as 1.5-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of only 186.5 points. The Bucks are a defensive-minded team that has held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 33-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $10700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
On paper, the Pelicans’ matchup against the Bucks is less than appealing. However, Davis’ individual matchup against Ersan Ilyasova has me licking my chops. Since returning from his shoulder injury, Davis has averaged 59 fantasy points per game in this last three outings. He has as much upside as anyone on tonight’s schedule and he should be considered the top overall fantasy option at any position.
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
The Bucks are wasting an opportunity to move up in the Eastern Conference standings. The Raptors and Wizards have both opened the door for the Bucks, who have lost six of their last ten games. They will look to right the ship tonight against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. The Bucks are small favorites in this game, but this is not a matchup that we need to go out of our way to exploit. The Pelicans have been the second slowest-paced team in the NBA over the last three weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 34-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6100, DK: $6600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Antetokounmpo’s price fluctuates as much as any player that comes to mind. He was well over $7,000 a couple of weeks ago and can now be targeted on FanDuel at a discount of $6,100. He is still seeing huge minutes, playing at least 34 in each of his last six games. He makes a terrific play tonight against the Pelicans.
Secondary Plays
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $4500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Ilyasova has always had it out for me. We all have those players that we are never on the right side of and Ilyasova seems to have my number. While I will be avoiding him in cash games, he does deserve consideration as a tournament play. He is underpriced and he’s coming off of a solid seven-game stretch, where he has averaged 27 fantasy points per contest.