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NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 15th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-16 16:10:51

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – Monday, 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Boston Celtics
Article Image Vegas Total 209.5 Article Image Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

John Wall was not amused by Boston’s all-black funeral attire Friday night, so he decided to hit a game-winning three with seconds to go. He finished with 26 points on 25 shots as he continues to struggle a bit from the field; over the past four games, his field goal percentage has been 36.8% or lower. Notably, he’s only converted 41.0% of his attempts within eight feet of the hoop – where 48.8% of his field goals came from over the last four outings. Wall made 56.0% during the regular season while Boston ranked 15th in opponent field goal percentage from the area (56.5). We could see him turn that around tonight. Optimus Dime also contributed eight assists, although his 34.4% assist rate was low for him – he posted a 46.9% rate during the year. Bradley Beal added five assists. After opening the series with a 24.3% usage rate, he’s pushed it to 29.8% over the past two. Although he continued to misfire from three, going 1-of-8, he shot 57.7% from the field overall on his way to 33 points. He ended up taking 26 FGAs; it was the first time he launched more than 19 times in this series despite taking 20+ in the first round. Wall and Beal have combined for 45.5% of Washington’s total field goals in this series and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them push that share higher in Game 7. Overall, they look like the two best plays at their respective positions, at least in terms of raw points.

Coach Scott Brooks gave us an idea of what he intends to do with the four forwards tonight. Markieff Morris (39) and Otto Porter (36) led the way in minutes while Bojan Bogdanovic (17), who played with flu, earned a bigger workload than Kelly Oubre (7). Once again, Bojan entered the game ahead of Oubre. The latter picked up two fouls fairly quickly, limiting him in the first half, but surprisingly didn’t play at all in the second half. Although Brooks has been a little inconsistent with the group, it appears that he’ll focus on getting his starters a ton of minutes in an elimination game. Bojan and Oubre aren’t much more the high-risk dart throws that may not come with enough upside to be worth the risk. For what it’s worth, Bogdonavic should be fully recovered from the illness and it seems like he’ll receive a bigger workload than Oubre.

Porter went scoreless in Game 6 after dropping 13 or more in the first five meetings. He remained effective on the glass, collecting five rebounds though. Boston has been the worst rebounding team in the playoffs, posting a very poor 46.0% rebounding rate. Porter should continue to produce there, but we may have to temper expectations with his scoring. While he shouldn’t blank again, he only managed to take five field goals as Wall and Beal both shot 25 or more. If the two primary scorers take over again, which makes sense in this scenario, Porter could become the odd man out. Generally speaking, Morris is above him on the scoring totem pole as well. The power forward has scored 16 points in three of the four games he picked up at least 27 minutes against Boston and he’s double-doubled in the two games he played for more than 28 minutes. As with Porter, he’s in a great spot for rebounding, and considering he’s scored at least 16 points in every game he’s received at least 30 minutes this postseason, he should put up points as well.

At center, we have Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi in a time share. The latter picked up 15 minutes across two stints in Game 6. He could potentially move towards his normal 18 minutes tonight and he’s still very cheap on FD and DK. He doesn’t come with a ton of upside, but he averaged 15.0 FD points in 17.9 minutes per game this season. Gortat finished with 25.2, although he would’ve pushed towards 30 had he not gotten into foul trouble early in the second quarter. If Mahinmi picks up more time, Gortat will lose some, reducing his value further. It seems better to pay up at the position than roll with Gortat. Although on FD, he remains in play as there are fewer options available and Pau Gasol, who’s in a tougher matchup, may continue to lose some minutes himself.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,200 $10,900 1.24 36.4 2.1 45.3 4.0 34.8% 1.9% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,200 0.94 34.9 3.4 32.9 1.6 26.4% 0.4% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $5,100 $6,300 0.82 32.6 -0.2 26.7 -1.1 14.8% -1.3% 13 1.37
Markieff Morris $5,400 $5,900 0.83 31.2 -3.6 26.1 -1.7 19.8% 0.9% 24 3.79
Marcin Gortat $5,100 $5,500 0.85 31.2 0.1 26.4 1.0 14.7% -2.0% 21 1.59
Kelly Oubre $2,600 $3,500 0.61 20.3 -3.6 12.4 -0.2 13.9% 2.4% 13 N/A
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,000 0.75 25.7 -5.1 19.3 -2.9 22.0% -3.1% 13 N/A
Ian Mahinmi $2,300 $2,800 0.84 17.9 -4.9 15.0 -3.5 13.7% -1.7% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Bojan Bogdanovic

Boston Celtics

Isaiah Thomas got his shot counter back up on Friday. After taking 14 or fewer attempts in the previous three outings, he launched 24 in Game 6 on his way to 27 points. Unfortunately, he struggled to 33.3% shooting from the field, but he hit five treys for the fourth time in six second-round games. Thomas should have the ball in his hands plenty in the final game of the series; it would be surprising if he didn’t take 20 or more FGAs. His assist rate (31.1%) has been just shy of his normal production (32.6%) and he’s collected three or more rebounds in three games against Washington. Sure, he’s a little scoring dependent, but if there’s a situation to bet on Thomas scoring a ton, wouldn’t it be in Game 7 against a rival at home? Seems like a nice spot to target, especially on DraftKings where his priced has dipped below Stephen Curry’s to $8,600. He’s $9,200 on FanDuel, which provides a savings of $800 off Curry and $1,000 off Wall.

Boston uses their bench more than the Wizards and that won’t change here, but if Game 6 is any indication, coach Brad Stevens is going to push Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder as much as he can. They all received at least 37 minutes while Bradley unsurprisingly led the squad with 42. Following a stellar opening round, Horford’s numbers have regressed towards his average – 11.8% rebounding rate, 25.9% assist rate – as have his raw per-game averages – 6.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists. However, he’s only put in 33.9 minutes a night due to poor game flow for most of the series. In terms of raw numbers, he should see his assists and rebounds rise in a competitive game as he should end up with 36-40 minutes on the floor. He’s already scoring an extra 3.0 points per game (17.0) as he’s been hot, making 68.9% of his field goals. Everything seems to be falling for him, including a seemingly accidental bank shot that gave Boston a late lead in Game 6. Fortunately, if he stumbles on the scoring end, he’s capable of providing a solid floor through peripherals. Crowder has been able to do the same. His assist rate is up 6.0% to 16.1% and his rebounding rate as increased 2.2% over his average to 12.3%. He’s currently leading the team with 6.8 rebounds per game against the Wizards. In terms of scoring, Crowder is fourth with 14.3 points per game, but he’s taken at least nine shots in every game against Washington. When compared to Otto Porter, he looks like a better target as he’s been more consistent – he’s topped 26 FD points in every game in the second round and exceeded 30 in four – and will likely pick up a couple more minutes than his counterpart. As for Bradley, he seems to pick up the tempo when trying to close out a series. Against Chicago, he averaged 23.5 points in the final two meetings and he’s averaged 28.0 over the last two games against Washington. Bradley took 18 and 19 attempts in Games 5 and 6 and he’s been more aggressive – 37.8% of his attempts have been within five feet of the hoop whereas he took 29.4% of his shots from that area during the regular season. He’s completing 64.3% of those attempts and it enabled him to get to the charity stripe four times last time out – he averaged 1.7 FTAs during the season. While Bradley has set a high scoring pace over the past two contests, which will be tough to sustain, he will likely push past 40 minutes again and he appears established as Boston’s second scorer, averaging a full 5.0 FGAs more than Crowder (15.0 to 11.0), who’s taken the third-most attempts.

The fifth starter, Amir Johnson, will likely get two stints – one in the first quarter and another in the third – which will likely total 15-18 minutes. He averaged 0.82 FD ppm during the regular season with a 14.1% usage rate. In this series, he’s lost 4.1% off his usage and 0.13 from his per-minute fantasy pace. He’s far from a strong target, but he’s managed to scored seven or more in two of his past three starts and he’s averaged 3.3 rebounds during that stretch.

Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk will likely lead the bench in minutes. Smart hasn’t been getting 30+ minutes though, he hasn’t exceeded 28 since Game 2. He had a down game last time out, scoring just 1 point on three shots. He had scored nine points in four straight, but there may either Bradley, Thomas, or both were shooting less than normal in those games. If the two starters come out firing like last game, there won’t be many opportunities available to fall to Smart considering Horford and Crowder are also ahead of him in the pecking order. On the positive side, Smart delivered five rebounds and four assists as he continues to provide peripheral stats. Olynyk is consistently around 20 minutes, which doesn’t seem to be enough time for him to provide a huge return, he’s not much more than a GPP dart throw. Fellow bench guys, Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown barely seem to be worthwhile high-risk options as they may not earn a ton of minutes in Game 7. They each picked up 11 in Game 6. In previous contests, they’ve been aided by game flow, so rostering them is essentially a bet on a blowout game. However, starters generally stay in longer than normal in lopsided elimination games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,200 $8,600 1.19 33.8 1.6 40.4 -3.6 34.9% -2.6% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,500 $5,800 0.84 33.4 1.9 28.1 -1.3 21.5% -1.2% 16 -0.94
Jae Crowder $6,300 $6,100 0.79 32.4 0.8 25.7 1.4 16.9% 0.1% 17 0.03
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,800 0.82 20.1 -8.9 16.5 -8.9 14.3% 1.2% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,000 $7,100 1.00 32.3 1.5 32.2 4.0 21.6% -2.9% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,000 0.80 30.4 -0.8 24.2 -0.4 20.7% -3.2% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,800 $3,900 0.90 20.5 -1.7 18.5 -1.5 19.5% 0.2% 20 N/A
Terry Rozier $2,300 $3,100 0.74 17.1 0.3 12.7 1.1 18.2% -1.8% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – Tuesday, 9:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors
Article Image Vegas Total 210.0 Article Image Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM -1.07 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio went up by 25 points in the second quarter but a disastrous third cost them the game. Kawhi Leonard rolled his ankle twice, forcing him out of the contest, and Golden State immediately went on an 18-0 run. Leonard has been ruled out for Game 2 and that will make a huge impact on this slate. For starters, LaMarcus Aldridge has seen an enormous 10.0% usage bump to 36.1% with Leonard and Tony Parker off the floor this postseason. His per-minute fantasy pace spiked by 0.18 FD ppm to 1.05, although during the regular season that rate rose by 0.30 FD ppm, bringing it to 1.26. He was a beast in Game 1, even when Leonard was on the court, going 5-for-7 in the first quarter. He finished with 24 field goal attempts and he should continue to have a high volume of shots – he’s averaged 23.7 FGAs over the past three games.

Manu Ginobili and Jonathon Simmons stand to benefit as well. Simmons will likely start in Leonard’s place, and Ginobili, who played the final nine minutes on Sunday, will pick up a larger workload. During the playoffs, Simmons has posted the second-highest usage rate on the team when Leonard and Parker have been off the court (26.1%) and he’s turned in 0.89 FD ppm. Ginobili has struggled plenty this postseason, but he’s turned it up recently; he finished with 17 points in Game 1. Throughout the regular season, he played 593.4 minutes in this scenario; his usage was bumped 5.0% to 25.7% and he produced 0.96 FD ppm. Both guys are still cheap and will be solid/popular options on the Monday-Tuesday slate.

Pau Gasol only earned 16 minutes on Sunday, partially due to foul trouble. The Spurs went small, playing Aldridge and David Lee at center during the game and Gasol may be limited in some capacity again. However, if avoids fouling too much, he should pick up more time. In Game 6 against Houston without Kawhi, he received 29 minutes and he ended up with a double-double (10 points, 11 rebounds). With Aldridge increasing his usage so much during the playoffs when Leonard and Parker have been off, Gasol’s has only increased 1.1% to 17.9% and he’s delivered 0.83 FD ppm. During the year, he was much better, producing 1.24 FD ppm with a 31.5% usage rate. He’ll likely fall somewhere in between, but the minutes and matchup are serious concerns.

Patty Mills has followed a similar pattern with a usage of 19.2% and production of 0.73 FD ppm in this situation during the playoffs despite producing a 24.4% usage rate and 0.85 FD ppm during the season. Mills was awful from the field in Game 1, going 1-for-8 and he didn’t pick up a ton of peripherals. Although it’s a tough matchup, he should bounce back tomorrow and he’s looking like a much better value without Leonard available. Even so, it may be better to pay up at point guard with three awesome options available above him.

In Game 6 against Houston, Dejounte Murray and Kyle Anderson were active in the rotation and they should be tomorrow night as well. Anderson didn’t enter Sunday’s game until after Kawhi went down but finished with ten minutes. Murray earned five minutes overlapping the first and second quarters and added eight after the injury. These guys are in play for tournaments, but very risky. Without Leonard and Parker this postseason, Murray has turned in 1.05 FD ppm with a 22.4% usage rate while Anderson has produced 0.94 FD ppm and a 17.2% usage rate.

Danny Green scored eight points in the opening game of the series. In this situation, he’s produced 0.56 FD ppm in the postseason and 0.53 during the regular season. It seems like Manu Ginobili is a better option for less money, despite Green playing more minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,200 $5,500 0.79 21.9 3.7 17.2 0.0 21.8% -2.0% 3 0.24
Danny Green $4,000 $4,500 0.62 26.6 1.4 16.5 -0.3 13.8% -0.7% 14 -0.91
Kawhi Leonard $11,400 $10,000 1.22 33.4 2.4 40.6 5.6 30.9% -2.3% 5 1.35
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,800 $7,100 0.96 32.4 3.0 31.1 -0.5 24.0% -0.5% 21 5.08
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,200 1.06 25.4 -1.9 26.9 -6.6 21.5% -4.3% 12 3.61
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $3,600 0.84 18.7 -1.1 15.7 -2.5 22.0% -2.7% 14 N/A
Jonathon Simmons $4,200 $4,700 0.67 17.9 0.5 11.9 1.7 18.9% 3.4% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Jonathon Simmons, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, Danny Green

Golden State Warriors

Kawhi Leonard’s absence will have a major impact on Golden State’s offense. Across the 29.2 minutes Leonard was on the court in Game 1, Stephen Curry led the team with a 43.4% usage rate and 1.51 FD ppm while Durant was second with a 34.0% usage and 1.28 FD ppm. When Leonard was off the floor, Durant went off. His usage spiked to 41.6% while Curry’s dropped to 27.7% and 12 actual points in the fourth quarter helped boost his per-minute production to 1.62 FD ppm as Curry’s fell to 1.09. Draymond Green also struggled to start the game and ended up with a strong four quarter – his ppm rates rose from 0.62 to 1.13 when Leonard was off. This is a small sample size, but it may provide some insight into which guys will benefit tomorrow tonight, even if the change isn’t as drastic.

Outside of Leonard’s injury, the big story of the night was Stephen Curry dropping 19 points in the third quarter as the Warriors rallied from behind. He had an excellent game overall, finishing with 40 points on a team-high 26 shots. However, we saw what Durant can do when he doesn’t have to worry about Leonard. It wouldn’t be surprising to see KD lead the team in FGAs and usage tomorrow. With Isaiah Thomas and John Wall playing in a Game 7 tonight, they may make better choices at PG, especially considering Curry’s ownership may rise following his big game.

Klay Thompson was third on the team with 11 shots and he only sank two of them. With the help of three blocks and two steals, he finished with 23.3 FD points. Normally, he’ll need to score a ton to have a big fantasy value and he won’t often get a high volume of shots. Bradley Beal and Avery Bradley, both of whom are more involved with their teams’ offenses, appear to be stronger targets at shooting guard.

With Curry and Durant both taking more than 21 FGAs, Green ended up taking just six, his fewest since Game 3 against Portland. He still contributed seven boards and seven assists and with Leonard out, he’ll have an easier time collecting peripherals – as mentioned, his per-minute fantasy pace skyrocketed when Leonard was off the court. Still, it may not be enough to pay off his salary if he can’t pick his scoring pace back up; he had scored 17 or more points in four of the past five outings, enabling him to post big fantasy lines. During the regular season, Green averaged 10.2 points on 8.6 FGAs per game, so a dip in his scoring isn’t all that surprising. With Aldridge cheaper across the industry, he may be a stronger choice given Leonard’s injury. Markieff Morris is also available at much cheaper salary and he could log heavy minutes tonight in Game 7. Green may have the highest ceiling of the three, but the other two seem to be in better situations.

While those four all played their normal minutes, we saw some changes elsewhere in the rotation. Andre Iguodala didn’t play at all in the second half due to some knee issues. He’s getting an MRI today and should be considered questionable for tomorrow. If he ends up playing, he could be limited, which makes him even less appealing. Shaun Livingston ended up receiving 15 minutes in the second half and 23 minutes overall. He’s a potential GPP option if Iguodala is out or limited considering he’s at or near the minimum. Zaza Pachulia surprisingly picked up 26 minutes as the Warriors limited JaVale McGee and David West to five and eight minutes, respectively. It was the first time he’s played more than 19 this postseason, so it’s a little suspect. Still, he’s averaged 1.0 DK ppm this season and he’s just $2,800 on the site.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $8,900 1.25 33.4 1.5 41.6 3.0 31.3% 0.4% 8 -1.07
Klay Thompson $7,100 $6,000 0.91 34.0 0.9 30.9 -8.3 24.6% -4.2% 12 2.10
Kevin Durant $9,700 $9,900 1.36 33.4 -0.4 45.5 -3.7 28.0% 0.4% 2 0.85
Draymond Green $8,600 $8,000 1.06 32.5 3.1 34.6 7.8 19.3% -1.2% 2 1.25
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $2,800 0.96 18.1 -2.7 17.4 -2.6 15.7% 2.0% 2 1.43
Andre Iguodala $5,200 $4,600 0.75 26.3 0.0 19.7 -1.7 13.2% 1.9% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green (FD)

Secondary Plays – Draymond Green (DK), Klay Thompson, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingston (if Iguodala out)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).