NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 22nd

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – 9:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 216.0 Article Image Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread -12.0 Vegas Spread 12.0
Team Total 114.0 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green JaVale McGee Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kyle Anderson Jonathon Simmons LaMarcus Aldridge
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.07 2.10 2.92 1.37 1.25 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 0.37

Golden State Warriors

I hate to say it, but this is likely the last NBA slate of the season. The Spurs put up a good fight in Game 3, but the Warriors’ offense was too much to handle yet again. The Warriors are now one win away from their third straight NBA Finals appearance. They have yet to lose a game in the postseason and they will want to take care of business in Game 4. The line for the game is currently set at 12 points with an over/under of 216. David Lee has already been ruled out of this game and Kawhi Leonard is listed as doubtful.

Stephen Curry has been unstoppable in this series, scoring 56, 52, and 39 fantasy points. The Spurs don’t have an answer for him in transition or in a half-court setting. He has been able to get any shot that he wants in the series and is clearly the top point guard target in the slate. With Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs and Kyrie Irving playing in a potential blowout, Curry is a tough fade in any league format. Klay Thompson has only scored more than 27 fantasy points one time in his last ten games. He continues to be an easy fade at shooting guard.

Kevin Durant is coming off of a great performance in Game 3. With Kawhi Leonard expected to miss tonight’s game, the Spurs don’t have anyone that can match up with him. Granted, he made some extremely difficult shots in Game 3, but that’s something we are accustomed to with Durant. I still have LeBron James as my top small forward target, but you can certainly make a case for Durant, especially on a site like DraftKings where he is power forward eligible. Even when Draymond Green doesn’t score (only ten points in Game 3), he can still come close to reaching value thanks to his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. When it comes to a raw projection (salaries excluded), Green is the top power forward in the slate.

Zaza Pachulia missed Game 3 with a foot injury and is currently listed as questionable heading into Game 4. If he is unable to suit up, JaVale McGee would draw another start at center. He was incredibly productive in his last game, scoring 18 fantasy points in 13 minutes of action. While everyone loved watching the highlights, he only played 13 minutes. We shouldn’t overreact and force him into our lineups. He’s a decent punt on DraftKings at $2,700, but far from a core play. The Warriors’ bench doesn’t really have any fantasy appeal at this time and can be avoided in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $9,600 1.25 33.4 1.1 41.6 3.8 31.3% -0.2% 8 -1.07
Klay Thompson $6,600 $6,000 0.91 34.0 0.3 30.9 -8.3 24.6% -4.2% 12 2.10
Kevin Durant $10,200 $10,100 1.36 33.4 -1.1 45.5 -6.0 28.0% -0.3% 2 2.92
Draymond Green $8,300 $7,900 1.06 32.5 2.3 34.6 7.6 19.3% -0.7% 2 1.37
JaVale McGee $4,000 $2,700 1.24 9.6 1.1 11.9 1.3 21.7% -3.4% 2 1.25
Andre Iguodala $4,000 $4,600 0.75 26.3 0.0 19.7 -1.7 13.2% 1.9% 2 N/A
Matt Barnes $1,500 $2,200 0.74 24.0 -16.8 17.8 -14.4 15.8% 0.8% 2 N/A
Shaun Livingston $1,500 $2,600 0.62 17.7 -0.6 11.0 -0.9 14.4% -2.0% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant (DK), Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (FD), Klay Thompson, JaVale McGee (DK)


San Antonio Spurs

One more loss and the Spurs will be eliminated from the playoffs. They would like to extend the series if possible, but they have zero momentum on their side. In fact, they haven’t had any momentum since Game 1 when Kawhi Leonard went down with his ankle injury. There was hope that Leonard would be able to return for Game 4, but he is being listed as doubtful and is not expected to play. The Spurs are also expected to be without David Lee. While he didn’t have a big role off the bench, the Spurs will likely be missing three of their players tonight.

This is one of those series where we will look back and think about the what-ifs. It appears to be headed for a sweep, even though it had plenty of potential before the injury to Kawhi. San Antonio will likely put everything on the line in Game 4, so we can expect big minutes from their starters for at least the first three quarters. Patty Mills has really struggled to get going in this series, topping out at 20 fantasy points in Game 3. While I prefer the likes of Stephen Curry and Marcus Smart, he actually makes some sense as a contrarian GPP play. Mills played 33 minutes last game and could push for 35+ if the Spurs are able to keep this game close. Dejounte Murray has played well off the bench, but has relied on garbage time for most of his production. Tonight’s game could certainly get out of hand early, but I still see Murray as more of a GPP play, given the other value plays available in the slate.

Danny Green and Manu Ginobili are both borderline elite plays on FanDuel. They should both see a full complement of minutes and are two of the better values at the position, especially not that Marcus Smart is being listed as a point guard. Green has yet to have a good game in this series, but he has played 33 minutes in two of the first three games. Ginobili’s production has been all over the map, but you have to think Popovich will give him a few more minutes in a win or stay home Game 4. Ginobili is coming off of a 27 fantasy point outing in Game 3.

Jonathon Simmons is close to a must play with Kawhi Leonard doubtful. He is having a breakout postseason and will remain a focal point of the Spurs’ offense. Kyle Anderson started in Game 3 and scored 25 fantasy points in 20 minutes of action. He is one of the best value plays in the slate. LaMarcus Aldridge has been ice cold from the floor ever since Leonard was injured in Game 1. The Warriors have turned him into a jump shooter and he hasn’t been knocking down any of his open shots. While he is the most volatile of the three expensive power forwards, he should be the lowest owned if you want to play that angle in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,200 $5,500 0.79 21.9 3.7 17.2 0.0 21.8% -2.0% 3 0.24
Danny Green $4,400 $4,400 0.62 26.6 1.4 16.5 -0.3 13.8% -0.7% 14 -0.91
Kyle Anderson $3,600 $3,600 0.74 14.2 -4.0 10.5 -1.8 13.0% 4.4% 5 1.35
Jonathon Simmons $4,400 $5,800 0.67 17.9 0.5 11.9 1.8 18.9% 3.4% 21 5.08
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,000 $7,800 0.96 32.4 2.4 31.1 -1.4 24.0% -0.6% 12 0.37
Manu Ginobili $3,500 $4,000 0.84 18.7 -1.1 15.7 -2.5 22.0% -2.7% 14 N/A
Pau Gasol $5,500 $4,900 1.06 25.4 -1.9 26.9 -6.6 21.5% -4.3% 12 N/A
Dejounte Murray $2,900 $4,100 0.76 8.5 3.3 6.5 3.9 24.9% -1.7% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Jonathan Simmons, Kyle Anderson, Danny Green (FD), Manu Ginobili (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Danny Green (DK), Manu Ginobili (DK), LaMarcus Aldridge (Cash), Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray


Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 216.0 Article Image Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 15.0 Vegas Spread -15.0
Team Total 100.5 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM 0.45 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

After getting demolished by the Cavaliers in Game 2 at home, the Celtics shocked the world by winning Game 3 in Cleveland. And they did it without their star point guard, Isaiah Thomas. While it was obviously an amazing win, it doesn’t change the outlook of the series. The Cavaliers still have home-court advantage and are going to be double-digit favorites in each of the next two games. Boston is currently listed as a 15-point underdog heading into Game 4. They have the lowest implied team total in the slate at only 100.5 points.

We shouldn’t put too much weight on the box score from Game 3. It was obviously a little fluky. LeBron James had 11 points and six turnovers, Marcus Smart hit seven three pointers, and Jonas Jerebko was +22 in 13 minutes of playing time. Those are all outlier performances. With that said, Smart appears close to a must play in all formats. Even if Game 4 gets out of hand, Smart is going to play at least 35 minutes and be the point guard in this offense. His price is still affordable across the industry and he’s more reliable than the other cheap point guards in this slate. Terry Rozier was expected to see a boost in playing time with Thomas out, but he only played eight minutes in Game 4. His best hope is having the game turn into a blowout, which is certainly possible.

Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are going to carry the Celtics’ offense without Thomas on the floor. In Game 3, Bradley played 42 minutes and took 23 shot attempts (he also hit the game winner), while Crowder played 40 minutes and took 14 shot attempts. Both players are borderline elite plays heading into Game 4, but we do run the risk of them sitting out the fourth quarter if the game gets out of hand early. Al Horford has yet to crack 30 fantasy points in this series, but the Celtics are going to run more plays through him at the high post with Thomas out. He makes an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings, but Tristan Thompson is so cheap, that it’s hard to justify playing any other center on FanDuel.

As for the Celtics’ bench, there are three players that need to be on our radar. All three would actually benefit from a blowout, as they could all end up playing garbage time, which counts just the same when it comes to fantasy production. Kelly Olynyk should see 20-22 minutes, Jonas Jerebko should see 13-15 minutes, and Jaylen Brown could see anywhere from 15-25 minutes depending on how well he’s playing. All three are viable secondary plays at their respective positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Marcus Smart $6,000 $5,800 0.80 30.4 -0.8 24.2 0.0 20.7% -3.2% 23 -2.16
Avery Bradley $7,000 $6,600 0.84 33.4 2.0 28.1 -2.2 21.5% -1.8% 29 -0.77
Jae Crowder $6,600 $6,400 0.79 32.4 0.7 25.7 0.9 16.9% 0.2% 26 1.57
Amir Johnson $3,000 $2,400 0.82 20.1 -9.1 16.5 -9.5 14.3% 1.3% 9 1.93
Al Horford $8,000 $7,100 1.00 32.3 1.9 32.2 3.6 21.6% -3.3% 17 0.95
Kelly Olynyk $4,800 $4,300 0.90 20.5 -0.9 18.5 0.1 19.5% 0.7% 17 N/A
Jaylen Brown $3,600 $3,000 0.67 17.2 -6.4 11.5 -4.5 17.4% -0.3% 26 N/A
Jonas Jerebko $1,800 $2,000 0.62 15.8 -7.0 9.9 -2.9 11.9% 3.6% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Al Horford, Terry Rozier (GPP), Kelly Olynyk, Jaylen Brown, Jonas Jerebko


Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers ended their winning streak with a loss in Game 3, but that doesn’t change much in the series. They are still the clear favorites and should have no problems closing it out in five or six games. LeBron James had his worst playoff game in years and the Celtics needed a buzzer beater to win. That’s not going to happen again. Look for the Cavaliers to take care of business in Game 4 at home. They are listed as 15-point favorites with an implied total of 115.5 points, which is easily the highest in the slate.

Kyrie Irving has struggled to reach value in this series. While the did score 40 fantasy points in Game 3, he actually sees a matchup downgrade with Isaiah Thomas out. He would much rather go up against Thomas instead of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart. With Stephen Curry red-hot and with Smart now listed as a point guard, Irving is more of a GPP play than a core play in this slate. J.R. Smith had his best game of the series in Game 3, scoring 22 fantasy points in 33 minutes. I still prefer the upside of Manu Ginobili at a similar price point, but Smith isn’t a bad play if you are in a bind at shooting guard.

Prior to Game 3, LeBron James had scored at least 51 fantasy points in 11 straight games. If you would have told me that he would only score 25 fantasy points in a close game, I wouldn’t have believed you. Look for James to bounce back in a big way. If anything, this could lower his ownership a little, which is more than fine by me. James is still the best fantasy option on the board and will be a staple in all of my lineups. Kevin Love has yet to have a bad game in this series. This is basically a perfect matchup for him and for some reason, he is still cheaper than both LaMarcus Aldridge and Draymond Green. Last, but not least, we have Tristan Thompson. Game 2 was a fluke and we can expect him to be a monster on the glass the rest of the series. The Celtics are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Thompson is easily the top point-per-dollar play at center in this slate.

This could be the last NBA Grind Down of the year. If so, thanks for joining me this season. It’s been a lot of fun and I’m already looking forward to October.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,300 $8,700 1.09 35.1 -0.8 38.2 -0.5 32.0% 2.7% 18 0.45
J.R. Smith $3,300 $3,300 0.56 29.0 -3.1 16.2 -5.2 14.4% -3.6% 11 -1.13
LeBron James $12,500 $12,700 1.30 37.8 4.6 49.3 9.4 32.9% 1.1% 13 1.37
Kevin Love $7,800 $7,700 1.14 31.4 -0.1 35.8 -9.2 25.2% -5.8% 24 3.79
Tristan Thompson $4,600 $5,300 0.77 30.0 2.7 23.0 0.8 11.0% -0.4% 21 1.59
Kyle Korver $2,900 $3,200 0.63 26.2 -6.7 16.5 -3.0 15.1% -1.5% 11 N/A
Channing Frye $3,200 $3,100 0.83 18.9 -4.6 15.8 -1.7 18.1% -1.6% 24 N/A
Deron Williams $3,300 $2,900 0.82 25.9 -9.9 21.2 -9.0 24.7% -3.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious