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NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-10 03:36:37

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Miami Heat
torontonba Vegas Total 192.0 miaminba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 93.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8 Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26 Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4

Toronto Raptors

Series Record: 2-1

This has been a truly great series through the first three games. All three have come down to the wire and each team could honestly feel like they could be up 3-0. Game 4 takes place tonight in Miami. The Raptors are currently listed as 5.5-point underdogs with the lowest team total on the board. The big news in Toronto is the injury to Jonas Valanciunas. After being a huge difference maker in the first three games, he has been ruled out of the remainder of the series with an ankle injury. Bismack Biyombo is expected to slide into the starting lineup, but with Hassan Whiteside out for the Heat, both teams may end up employing a small ball approach.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,300
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.78 FP/Min: 0.96
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.9 37.7 1.8 41.3 5.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 29.3 -6.0 34.6 -0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 25.9 -0.2 25.2 -0.8

DeRozan is having a much better series in the second round. In the first three games against the Heat, he is averaging 34.6 fantasy points in just over 41 minutes per game. Now that Jonas Valanciunas has been ruled out, DeRozan could potentially have an even higher usage rate. He is a strong play in all league formats and he is considerably cheaper than Dwyane Wade on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Bismack Biyombo
bismack-biyombo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $3,900
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 0.82 FP/Min: 1.09
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 22.0 17.5 -4.5 12.6 -9.4
FPPG (FD) 18.4 14.3 -4.1 4.7 -13.7
TO-Adj. Usage 9.1 8.3 -0.8 1.9 -7.2
DeMarre Carroll
demarre-carroll-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,700 Salary: $4,700
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.57 FP/Min: 0.69
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.2 31.4 1.2 38.1 7.9
FPPG (FD) 20.8 18.0 -2.9 23.8 3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.8 12.1 -3.7 12.2 -3.5

For cash games, it makes sense to lock Biyombo in at center. He is going to be the chalk play at the position and he has really made the most of his starts without Jonas Valanciunas in the lineup. In 22 starts this season, Biyombo averaged 30 minutes, 7.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. I am a little concerned that both teams end up playing small tonight, but Biyombo should still see enough minutes to reach and exceed value.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,500
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.76 FP/Min: 1.02
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 37.0 40.1 3.1 43.5 6.5
FPPG (FD) 38.5 30.5 -8.0 31.2 -7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 20.2 -2.7 20.2 -2.7

Lowry finally had a good shooting performance. He shot 11-for-19 from the field in Game 3, en route to a 36 fantasy point outing. He makes an elite tournament play tonight, although I prefer both Damian Lillard and Shaun Livingston in cash games. The Heat still have one of the best defenses in the NBA and Lowry could just as easily go back to struggling from the field tonight.

Patrick Patterson
patrick-patterson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,800 Salary: $3,400
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.53 FP/Min: 0.63
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.6 25.8 0.2 23.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 15.3 13.6 -1.7 9.0 -6.3
TO-Adj. Usage 10.9 10.7 -0.2 7.1 -3.8

Patterson drew the start in Game 3 and thanks to the Jonas Valanciunas injury, played 36 minutes. He isn’t the most productive player while on the floor, but he should see 30+ minutes again tonight. He is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he allows you to load up on some of the more expensive players in this slate.

Miami Heat

Series Record: 1-2

The Heat stole homecourt advantage with a win in Toronto, but they gave it right back with a loss at home in Game 3. They can’t afford to go back to Toronto down 3-1, so they will treat tonight’s game like a must win. The Heat are listed as 5.5-point favorites with the third highest team total on the board. Hassan Whiteside is currently sporting a knee brace and a walking boot. He has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Udonis Haslem, Josh McRoberts, and Amar’e Stoudemire will all split minutes at center, but I don’t expect any of them to play more than 25 minutes or so. Without both starting centers tonight, look for both teams to play some small ball.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,200
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.08 FP/Min: 1.02
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.5 32.9 2.4 36.9 6.4
FPPG (FD) 31.6 35.6 3.9 40.3 8.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 26.7 -0.1 27.1 0.3

Wade has been surprisingly inconsistent in the postseasons. He has had some monster outings and he has been very quiet in a few of the games. With the Heat down 2-1 and with their backs against the wall, I’m expecting another nice game from him tonight. He already has an elite usage rate and that could possibly go up with Hassan Whiteside ruled out. I have Wade ranked as my top overall shooting guard, slightly ahead of both Klay Thompson and DeMar DeRozan.

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,100 Salary: $5,200
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.61 FP/Min: 0.67
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.4 35.6 2.2 39.9 6.5
FPPG (FD) 22.2 21.6 -0.6 26.6 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 14.9 -0.6 19.6 4.0

Johnson is having a very nice series for the Heat, averaging 26.6 fantasy points in around 40 minutes per contest. He has seen a major usage boost as well, which raises his floor and his ceiling. With the Heat expected to play small ball, Johnson should see north of 40 minutes. He is a low-risk, medium-reward target in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,400
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.82 FP/Min: 0.93
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.8 31.4 -1.4 35.2 2.4
FPPG (FD) 27.3 25.7 -1.6 24.6 -2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 21.3 2.4 20.2 1.3

Dragic just can’t seem to stay out of foul trouble. He has committed at least four fouls in five games this postseason. He has been fairly productive while on the floor, but his minutes haven’t been as high thanks to his foul trouble. With Hassan Whiteside out tonight, Dragic may take on a more aggressive role in the offense. He makes a strong GPP play, as most people will gravitate to Damian Lillard and Shaun Livingston at point guard.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,300
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 0.75 FP/Min: 0.73
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 32.4 35.7 3.3 40.1 7.7
FPPG (FD) 24.2 26.9 2.7 19.8 -4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 14.5 -0.5 8.5 -6.5

Deng has not played well so far in this series, averaging only 19.8 fantasy points per game. While that is certainly a concern, he should see over 40 minutes tonight with Hassan Whiteside out. I expect him to have his best outing to date in this series, although I still see him as more of a GPP play. Draymond Green and Patrick Patterson will likely be the chalk plays at power forward.

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM

Golden State Warriors Portland Trail Blazers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 214.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 109.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shaun Livingston Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27 Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19
Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30 Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6

Golden State Warriors

Series Record: 2-1

The Warriors were unable to take down the Blazers in Game 3, but they still have a 2-1 advantage in the series. When Stephen Curry originally hurt his knee, they had tonight’s game circled for his return. Curry was originally listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but has since been upgraded to questionable. For our purposes, I am going to assume that Curry is out until we hear otherwise. The Warriors are still listed as 5-point favorites tonight with the highest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,800
Position: PF Position: PF
FP/Min: 1.24 FP/Min: 1.17
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 36.9 2.2 39.6 4.9
FPPG (FD) 39.1 45.8 6.7 58.6 19.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 19.4 3.4 24.0 8.1

Green’s salary continues to rise, but the thought of fading him in cash games is pretty scary. In the first three games of this series, he is averaging 58.6 fantasy points in just under 40 minutes per contest. While he is close to a must play on FanDuel, he needs close to 60 fantasy points to reach 5x value on DraftKings. There is enough value that you can play him on both sites, but he does make an interesting fade in GPPs.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $9,000
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 1.05 FP/Min: 0.96
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.5 2.2 38.2 4.9
FPPG (FD) 30.9 37.2 6.3 41.5 10.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 25.3 3.0 28.5 6.2

It will be interesting to see what the ownership of the three most expensive shooting guards will look like tonight. If I had to guess, I’d say that Thompson will the highest owned of the group, followed by Dwyane Wade and then DeMar DeRozan. Thompson has been on fire in this series, averaging 41.5 fantasy points per game. He is a strong play in all league formats, but there are certainly viable alternatives at the position if you want to fade him.

Shaun Livingston
shaun-livingston-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,800 Salary: $5,900
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.93 FP/Min: 0.59
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 19.5 27.7 8.2 29.1 9.6
FPPG (FD) 14.3 25.9 11.5 24.7 10.4
TO-Adj. Usage 12.7 17.2 4.5 16.6 3.9

Livingston has been the model of consistency in the postseason, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in all eight of the Warriors’ playoff games. With Stephen Curry expected to sit out again tonight, Livingston should see 30-35 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Blazers. He is close to a must play on FanDuel ($4,800), although his price has come way up on DraftKings ($5,900).

Secondary Plays

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,600 Salary: $4,900
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.77 FP/Min: 0.70
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 26.6 28.7 2.1 30.0 3.4
FPPG (FD) 18.5 22.2 3.7 19.2 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 12.5 1.8 10.4 -0.3

Iguodala has been inconsistent, but he has already topped the 30 fantasy point mark three times in the last seven games. He offers nice upside for the price and he should continue to have a big role in the Warriors’ offense as long as Stephen Curry is out. I slightly prefer Iguodala over his teammate, Harrison Barnes.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,400 Salary: $4,600
Position: SF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.59 FP/Min: 0.70
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 30.9 31.3 0.4 34.6 3.7
FPPG (FD) 21.0 18.4 -2.6 20.3 -0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 13.1 -0.8 9.8 -4.0

Barnes had a nice Game 1 in this series, but has struggled in the last two games. So far in the postseason, he is averaging 18.4 fantasy points in just over 30 minutes per contest. Barnes isn’t my favorite play at the position, but he’s going to see north of 30 minutes in the highest scoring game of the night.

Portland Trail Blazers

Series Record: 1-2

The Blazers picked up a big win in Game 3 thanks to a monster effort from Damian Lillard. They have a chance to even the series at two games apiece. They could really end up putting pressure on the Warriors, especially if Stephen Curry is unable to return for Game 5. The Blazers are underdogs tonight, but they are still projected to score 104.5 points. Maurice Harkless hurt his hip on Saturday night, but is fully expected to play tonight. Given his injury and inconsistent play, he is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,600
Position: PG Position: PG
FP/Min: 0.99 FP/Min: 1.10
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 35.7 39.1 3.4 41.0 5.3
FPPG (FD) 39.4 38.7 -0.7 47.5 8.1
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 25.8 -1.8 28.3 0.8

Lillard scored 40 actual points and 58 fantasy points in the Blazers’ win in Game 3. The Warriors have not had an answer for him defensively and he remains the top point guard target tonight. His price has come up a bit, but he is still close to a must play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Blazers will need another monster performance from him if they are going to tie this series up.

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,800
Position: PF Position: SF
FP/Min: 0.84 FP/Min: 0.74
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 28.5 32.9 4.4 34.5 6.0
FPPG (FD) 21.5 27.5 6.1 26.6 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.9 1.6 13.6 -0.7

Aminu has really picked up his play in the postseason. He is averaging 27.5 fantasy points in close to 33 minutes per contest. He is coming off of a very nice performance in Game 3 and with Maurice Harkless a bit hobbled, Aminu should see all of the minutes that he can handle in Game 4.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,900
Position: SG Position: SG
FP/Min: 0.74 FP/Min: 0.87
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 34.7 39.2 4.5 40.9 6.2
FPPG (FD) 31.6 28.9 -2.7 29.5 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 20.1 -3.5 20.1 -3.5

I want to play McCollum tonight. In a vacuum, he is an elite play. However, with Dwyane Wade, Klay Thompson, and DeMar DeRozan all in such great spots, it’s hard to justify using a shooting guard spot on McCollum. He has nice upside in this matchup, but I prefer the other three players at his position.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,000
Position: C Position: C
FP/Min: 1.10 FP/Min: 0.97
Statistics Season Average Playoffs Playoffs +/- Last 3 Games Last 3 +/-
Minutes 25.4 27.5 2.1 23.6 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 24.3 30.3 5.9 21.5 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 13.3 -0.9 14.9 0.7

Plumdog Millionaire just can’t buy a bucket in this series. If he was shooting close to 50%, he would have easily reached value in two of the first three games. Everyone is going to be off of him tonight, as he only played 17 minutes in Game 3 thanks to foul trouble. I’m not looking his way in cash games, but Plumlee makes a strong GPP play if you want to fade Bismack Biyombo.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious