NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 5th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-04-05 18:58:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Minnesota at Orlando

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic

Minnesota

The Wolves pulled off a shocking win on Friday night in Miami, taking down the Heat in double OT. It was definitely impressive, but there have to be some concerns with a TWolves team that just played 58 minutes of basketball last night. They’re 4 point favorites tonight against the hapless Magic but they could be a little short-handed. Kevin Martin is questionable, Nikola Pekovic is doubtful, Shabazz Muhammad is doubtful and Dante Cunningham is in jail. Martin’s absence would open the door for Chase Budinger, but I’m more interested in the 3 healthy bigs on Minnesota. Kevin Love is obviously a stud, but then Ronny Turiaf and Gorgui Dieng are battling for the extra minutes with Pek/Cunningham out. If you haven’t noticed, Ronny Turiaf is averaging 24.5 FPPG over the last two since he came back from the injury and is still close to min-price across the board.

• Kevin Love – I’ll recommend love anytime, especially against a soft Magic interior defense with a high O/U and close spread.
• Ronny Turiaf – Dieng’s price tag has skyrocketed and he’s no longer a bargain bin play. Turiaf is definitely a bargain bin play and has taken away a good chunk of minutes from Dieng over the last couple of games without Pek.

Orlando

We’ll start with the fact that their best player is listed as questionable tonight and the status of Nikola Vucevic will really change the way you approach this team. If he plays, expect the Magic to pretty much split minutes across the board. Jacque Vaughan plays a balanced rotation which really hurts a lot of daily fantasy value. If he sits, there are about 36 minutes up for grabs to be filled by the likes of Kyle O’Quinn, Andrew Nicholson, Dewayne Dedmon and Tobias Harris. It’s tough to decide between the first three bargain bin options in O’Quinn, Nicholson and Dedmon but I think Harris would be the clear cut winner in the event that Vuc doesn’t dress.

• Tobias Harris – Harris’ price point dropped on a few sites and if he seems underpriced today (and Vuc sits) then consider taking a shot on him. He’s a terrific rebounder and should benefit most in the absence of Nikola.

Chicago at Washington

• Vegas Line – Washington -1, 182 Over/Under
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Chicago

A 182 over/under definitely doesn’t inspire confidence, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this game was played in the 80s. The best case scenario in targeting this game would be hoping for an overtime, something both these teams have played quite a bit of this season. That’s nothing more than a GPP hope and I don’t really trust any Bulls beyond Joakim Noah.

Washington

Again this game should be low-scoring and have a really slow tempo, which instantly scares me off of a lot of the players available. The Wizards have also been playing a fairly deep rotation of late and it’s hurt a lot of the fantasy value on the stud players like Wall and Gortat. Wall intrigues me though, because he’s averaging 40+ FPPG in 3 games against Chicago this season and he’s significantly better at home, averaging 6 FPPG more in front of the Washington fans.

• John Wall – Focused on it above but his home/road splits are pretty drastic. Still the matchup is definitely going to be tough so I’d leave him off your head to head or 50/50 lineups.

Charlotte at Cleveland

• Vegas Line – Cleveland -2.5, 195 Over/Under
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
• Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

Charlotte

The Bobcats are expected to be without Josh McRoberts again tonight which should move Cody Zeller into a starting role. But Zeller has not impressed in his last two starts, both of which coming in pretty good matchups. He’s still cheap but I might look elsewhere for my value tonight. For the rest of the Bobcats, both Kemba and MKG are listed as probable tonight but be sure to check back on their status as late scratches happen often this late in the season. This game should be fairly close and has some playoff implications so I do like a good number of guys here.

• Kemba Walker – Kemba disappointed on Friday but he’s averaging 47 FPPG in 3 games against the Cavs this season and Cleveland’s backcourt defense is downright bad, so there’s no reason to see him suddenly struggle against them tonight.
• Al Jefferson – I’m listing Big Al here as a cautionary play. He might be pretty popular tonight as Spencer Hawes will have to D him up in the early going but with Varejao healthy I worry that the Cavs will slide Hawes to the 4 and cover up Al with Varejao, and AndyV is one of the best interior defenders in basketball.

Cleveland

Cleveland seemed to be gaining some steam before getting pummeled in Atlanta on Friday night. They’ll need to bounce back quickly against the Bobcats on Saturday to keep any fading playoff hopes alive. They are getting healthier, with both Irving and Varejao back in the rotation but unfortunately that has taken away a good amount of value from Waiters, Jack and Hawes. Waiters price jumped during the time that Irving was out, so it’s tough to justify recommending him with Irving back on the floor. Hawes was excellent last night, but as mentioned in the Big Al breakdown above, I think you see Varejao take some minutes from both Hawes and Thompson tonight in an effort to slow down Charlotte’s best offensive weapon.

• Kyrie Irving – Charlotte’s biggest weakness is against the PG position, ranking 23rd over the last 15 days. Kyrie has been a huge home/road split guy all season long so putting your faith into him tonight at the Q is a much better proposition than trusting him away from Cleveland. I think he could be a sneaky under-the-radar play tonight with huge upside.

Boston at Detroit

• Vegas Line – Detroit -6, 205.5 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Pressey-Bayless-Green-Sullinger-Bass
• Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Boston

The Celtics have a number of injuries tonight that should leave them pretty depleted across the board. We’ll start with Rondo who’s likely to sit out the second half of the back-to-back, leaving Jerryd Bayless and Phil Pressey to fill point guard duties. Then there’s Avery Bradley who is also doubtful, and without AB the Celts are down to just Bayless, Pressey and Chris Johnson as healthy guards. And now Hump-a-dump aka Kris Humphries is listed as doubtful tonight, meaning Jared Sullinger will likely draw the start and both he and Kelly Olynyk should see about 8 extra minutes. The matchup is terrific here for these guys though and this game could have some tremendous value.

• Jerryd Bayless – Bayless came out hot last night and cooled off quickly, but based on sheer volume he should have a nice night tonight. There are three healthy guards on this roster, and Bayless is the only one who can play both the PG and SG position.
• Phil Pressey – Here’s guard #2 for the Celts. Pressey has been pretty solid when given enough minutes this season and is dirt cheap across the board. It doesn’t hurt that over the last 15 days Detroit ranks dead last against PGs and 25th against SGs.

Detroit

Detroit has dominated the Celtics on the glass in a couple of meetings so far this season, and with Humphries expected to miss Saturday night’s game I think it’s safe to say they should have a sizeable rebounding advantage once again. In those 3 games between the Pistons and Celtics, Drummond has averaged 16+ RPG, Monroe’s averaged 10.7, and J-Smoove is at 7.3 RPG. Boston has struggled on the glass all season long so it’s no surprise to see that the bigs of Detroit have had their way with the Celts. One last note on the Pistons, Will Bynum is again expected to miss tonight’s game.

• Andre Drummond – Drummond had 20 and 20 the last time these teams met and he’s my favorite Piston to target tonight, especially at just $7200 on DK.
• Greg Monroe – Monroe is probably the safest Piston, but has the lowest ceiling between Drummond and my next recommendation. I love Monroe for the cash games on Saturday.
• Josh Smith – Smith meets Drummond in the GPP-only category for tonight, but he’s also had some good success against the Celtics this season and over the course of his career. His price is a bit deflated across the industry right now and the SF position is pretty thin on sites like FD where there’s no multi-position eligibility.

Brooklyn at Philadelphia

• Vegas Line – Brooklyn -10.5, 210 Over/Under
• Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims

Brooklyn

Nets and Sixers just doesn’t seem to have the same appeal that other teams have when they play Philly. The news making it even more challenging is that all of Brooklyn is healthy and even KG is listed as questionable to play. There could be a massive backup in the Nets rotation and even though the matchup is terrific, I wouldn’t force guys into your lineups just for the sake of targeting the 76ers.

• Shaun Livingston – He’s the only Net I’ll be targeting heavily tonight because he’s reasonably cheap across the industry and coming off a solid 36 FP game on Friday night. Beyond Livingston I like Williams, Johnson, Blatche and Plumlee (if KG out) as GPP plays.
• Deron Williams – Just wanted to list it here since he’s only $6700 on DK, which is dirt cheap for this matchup.

Philadelphia

The Sixers snuck yet another win on Friday night in Boston, and surprisingly enough they played really well to earn that W. MCW was fantastic and Henry Sims continued to be a dominating force inside the paint. They are again heavy underdogs tonight, but are at home this time and should be able to keep it within reason against the Nets.

• Michael Carter-Williams – 44-45 FP in 3 of his last 4 games and MCW might be exhausted but he’s sure not done producing. I like him as a tournament only play tonight.
• Henry Sims – Sims is playing extremely well and he should be a tremendous option tonight, specifically if KG sits again.

Toronto at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia

Toronto

The final game of the night comes with two major question marks for Toronto, especially when facing the lowly Bucks. Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson are both very questionable today, and both did not play on Friday night. If Lowry sits, Greivis Vasquez becomes an instant value play and if Johnson sits then Pat-Pat Patterson is a tremendous cheapie as well. Be sure to follow that news closely and hopefully we hear more before lineups lock at 7.

• Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson – I love both of these value plays tonight, pending the injuries I noted above.
• DeMar DeRozan – I love DeRozan if Lowry sits, since he’s picked up his scoring and overall output in the two games Lowry has missed. I still like him if Lowry plays, but his ceiling definitely drops a bit.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are painful to watch sometimes, and it hasn’t helped that they’ve lost a number of expected key components already this season. Sanders, Mayo, Delfino, Wolters and Ilyasova are all missing pieces and it’s lead to guys like Jeff Adrien and Khris Middleton playing much bigger roles. But the most surprising piece of late has been Ramon Sessions. He’s now the most expensive Buck on most daily fantasy sites, which would be hilarious if this wasn’t the ‘professional’ basketball association.

• Ramon Sessions – Sessions hasn’t scored fewer than 26 FP in his last 10 games. If he’s still reasonably priced on your site of choice, you can use him in any format.
• Jeff Adrien – With 25,26 and 41 FP in his last three games, Adrien has become my favorite value option on the Bucks roster. He’s just $3.8K on DK tonight and I’d expect him to be in the 40-50% owned range there.