NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 28th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Detroit at Washington – 7:00 PM EST

  • Vegas LineWashington -3.5, 191.5 Over/Under
  • Detroit Proj. StartersJackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
  • Washington Proj. StartersWall-Temple-Porter-Hilario-Gortat
Detroit Washington
Vegas Total 191 Vegas Total 191
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 95.66 Team Pace 95.97
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tayshaun Prince Greg Monroe Andre Drummond Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Nene Hilario Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 9 8 7 5 3 Opp. Season 4 14 20 27 26
Opp. Last 7 21 20 6 24 12 Opp. Last 7 13 9 7 25 21


Detroit

Detroit is coming off a tough double-overtime loss to the Knicks, and has lost three of the last five games. They will travel to Washington tonight to take on a tough Wizards team. The game is currently sitting at a 193 O/U, and should be a very competitive game. This is a key game for Detroit, and they will look to bounce back from last night.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson – Jackson is coming off a disappointing night, and a very poor shooting game. Washington has really struggled with opposing PGs over the last ten days, and this is a great matchup for a nice bounce back game. Jackson has played at least 30 minutes, and put up at least 15 shots in each of the three games with his new team. He is a very solid play across the board tonight, and can be considered in all formats.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond – Drummond has put up at least 40 fantasy points in three of the last four games. Washington is a tough matchup, but Drummond put up a 16/18 line against them on the 22nd. He makes for a fine cash game play tonight, and always has that 45+ point upside.

Greg Monroe – Here’s where we transition from cash games to some large field GPPs. Monroe had a fantastic game against NY last night, and has another plus matchup tonight. Nene will be on the second half of a back-to-back, and Humphries is dealing with a hamstring injury. Monroe has a ton of upside tonight, but his price makes him a tough sell for cash games.

Washington

Like Detroit, Washington is coming off a loss last night, and will be looking to bounce back. Injury news is going to be key in this matchup, and offers a few nice value options. Otto Porter had a solid game last night filling in for Paul Pierce, but the frontcourt (outside of Gortat) was bad yet again. Washington will be welcomed back home tonight, and is a three-point favorite.

Elite Plays

Marcin Gortat – The Polish Hammer has strung together four solid games in a row, and put up 40 fantasy points a week ago when these two teams met. The frontcourt of the Wizards is really struggling right now, but Gortat has seen at least 27 minutes in each of the last five games. He’s a good pivot off Drummond, Gasol, and Gobert in your cash games. If Humphries is out once again tonight, Gortat would see a slight bump once again.

Secondary Plays

John Wall – It’s crazy to see Wall as a secondary option right? On a short slate you might think I’m crazy, but Wall has really underperformed over the last ten games. He has only hit 40+ fantasy points in three of his last ten, and has been under 30 in three of his last four. Wall has a good match up against Jackson tonight, but really needs to break out of this shooting slump to have his 50+ point upside. I would strongly consider Wall for tournament play tonight, but he’s a very risky cash game play with his recent performance.


Atlanta at Miami – 7:30 PM EST

  • Vegas LineAtlanta -5, 197.5 Over/Under
  • Atlanta Proj. StartersTeague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
  • Miami Proj. StartersDragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
Atlanta Miami
Vegas Total 197 Vegas Total 197
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 96.15 Team Pace 92.28
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Udonis Haslem Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 10 10 5 4 8 Opp. Season 16 13 11 13 6
Opp. Last 7 3 22 11 12 25 Opp. Last 7 10 15 1 4 23


Atlanta

The top-seeded Hawks travel to South Beach tonight to face the seventh-seeded Heat. A week ago this game would have been a slow paced, fade type of game. The Heat have been playing at a much faster pace with Dragic, and has won three of their last five games. Miami is ranked first against opposing PFs over the last week, and makes it tough to rely on Millsap with his price tag across the industry. Vegas expects this to be a close game, and the Hawks are a five-point favorite.

Editor’s Note: The Hawks are resting Jeff Teague, Al Horford, DeMarre Carroll and Pero Antic tonight.

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford – Miami has given up three straight 30+ games to opposing starting centers, and Alexis Ajinca put up 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks in 22 minutes last night. Ajinca was the key to my night last night, and noticing trends like this can give you a nice edge on your opponents. Horford has bounced back from his slow start to the season, and has been a very consistent cash game center. He has put up at least 30 in four of his last seven games, and three of those games have been 40+ point games.

Miami

Miami is coming off a tough loss to a poor defensive Pelicans team. The Hawks have really turned on the defense since the All-Star break, and are ranked in the top-ten against every position except SF over the last seven days. You can’t predict players getting in foul trouble, but Whiteside defiantly scares me for cash games tonight. Dragic is playing 33+ minutes a game since joining the Heat, but has been hit or miss in his four games with them. With that said, I think Dragic and Whiteside make for fine GPP options tonight.

Elite Plays

Luol Deng – When Miami brought Deng to town, they expected a lot more than what he showed in the beginning of the season. They’re currently still in the playoff picture, and Deng has really stepped it up over the last six games. He has put up at least 30 fantasy points in five of those six games, and has put up at least ten shots in the last three games. Small forward is a tough position to nail, but Deng is a solid cash game option.

Secondary Plays

Henry Walker – Stevie, who is Henry Walker? Well, Walker is a second-round draft pick out of Kansas State that has spent the last three years in the D-League and overseas. Walker averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds his sophomore year at Kansas State. Walker has played 30+ minutes in back to back games for the Heat, and has at least 20+ fantasy points in both of those games. On top of the minutes and fantasy production, this guy isn’t afraid to shoot the basketball (13 shots in each of the last two games). He’s playing with a lot of heart and energy since joining the Heat, and is a value punt play in GPPs.


Toronto at New York – 7:30 PM EST

  • Vegas LineToronto -12, 194.5 Over/Under
  • Toronto Proj. StartersLowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Patterson-Valanciunas
  • New York Proj. StartersGalloway-Hardaway-Early-Amundson-Bargnani
Toronto New York
Vegas Total 194 Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd -12.0 Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj.
Team Pace 95.93 Team Pace 93.06
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas Proj Starter Langston Galloway Tim Hardaway Cleananthony Early Louis Amundson Andrea Bargnani
Opp. Season 23 22 2 6 22 Opp. Season 21 11 24 7 11
Opp. Last 7 15 14 23 21 4 Opp. Last 7 26 24 28 15 10


Toronto

Golden State marched into Toronto, and blew out the Raptors last night. The Raptors have now lost four straight games. They travel to MSG to face the Knicks, and have beaten them in both of their previous meetings this season. DeMar DeRozan is really struggling from the field right now, and hasn’t topped 30 fantasy points in four straight games. He’s very risky when he’s slumping, and should be considered more of a GPP play tonight. Toronto is favored by 11.5 in this 195 O/U, and seems very risky for cash games tonight.

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

James Johnson – Jonas Valanciunas could also be considered a secondary play, but his price isn’t ideal. Like the rest of the starters, Johnson didn’t see a lot of minutes in the blowout last night. Over the last 15 days, Johnson is averaging 27 fantasy points per game. He’s a very active defender, and should be considered as long as he’s in the starting lineup.

New York

The Knicks pulled out a double overtime win against Detroit last night. Bargnani, Amundson, and Galloway all put up very solid lines last night. The Knicks are a huge underdog at home, but offer some solid value with all of the injuries. Keep a close eye on the status of Jose Calderon, but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to play. If Amundson draws another start, I think he’s a high risk, high reward tournament play.

Elite Plays

Andrea BargnaniBuyer Beware, we have yet to see what Coach Fisher does with Bargnani on a back-to-back. I’m writing this early in the morning, and will update if we get any news on what Fisher will do. A lot of the sites try and post games for the next day the night before, and we still have a very cheap Bargnani across the board. He’s not in the best matchup, but will be highly owned in cash games after last night’s performance.

Secondary Plays

Langston Galloway – I was very close to writing him up in the Elite section, but a lot of the sites have him priced more appropriately relative to his potential. Since the All-Star break, Galloway has played at least 34 minutes a game, and is averaging 28 fantasy points per game. He doesn’t have the greatest matchup tonight, but is still in that value range playing 34+ minutes.


Memphis at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST

  • Vegas LineMemphis -4.5, 193 Over/Under
  • Memphis Proj. StartersConley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
  • Minnesota Proj. StartersRubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
Memphis Minnesota
Vegas Total 193 Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 94.26 Team Pace 97.61
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Kevin Garnett Nikola Pekovic
Opp. Season 27 25 30 28 28 Opp. Season 5 7 18 3 2
Opp. Last 7 1 28 16 26 7 Opp. Last 7 25 1 22 2 15


Memphis

The Grizzlies have dropped two straight, and will look to get back on track against Minnesota. Minnesota is ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and play at a much faster pace than Memphis. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are both very consistent cash game plays, but have really lacked the tournament upside. Mike Conley has been very hot or cold, and there’s just not too much to like on the Memphis side of things tonight.

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

None.

Minnesota

Since the All-Star break, Minnesota is playing some really good basketball. This group has really shown some potential for the upcoming season, and will have a good chance to make the playoffs if they can stay healthy next year. Rubio, Pekovic, Martin, and Wiggins are all averaging over 30 fantasy points a game over the last 15 days. This is a top-five defensive team, and a very tough match up for Memphis.

Elite Plays

Ricky Rubio – Like I said above with Bargnani, I’m writing this early in the morning, make sure Rubio is in the lineup on a second half of a back-to-back. Rubio has put up at least 32 fantasy points in five straight games, and has been on triple-double watch each of those five games. He was able to put up 30 fantasy points against Memphis less than a month ago, and is playing fantastic basketball right now. If Rubio were to sit, Martin and Wiggins would get slight bumps.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins – Wiggins and Martin should both be relatively low owned for tournaments tonight, but I’ve giving a slight edge to Wiggins. Jeff Green really struggles on the defensive side, and I expect Wiggins to fully take advantage of Green. I wouldn’t pick on this Memphis defense for cash games, but Vegas expects this game to be close with a spread of 5.5 making Wiggins one of my favorite tournament options.


Brooklyn at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST

  • Vegas LineBrooklyn -1.5, 207 Over/Under
  • Brooklyn Proj. StartersWilliams-Brown-Anderson-Johnson-Plumlee
  • Dallas Proj. StartersRondo-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
Brooklyn Dallas
Vegas Total 207 Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 94.42 Team Pace 96.82
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Markel Brown Alan Anderson Joe Johnson Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Monta Ellis Richard Jefferson Dirk Nowitzki Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 26 6 14 10 15 Opp. Season 14 26 8 24 13
Opp. Last 7 16 16 15 5 8 Opp. Last 7 5 12 18 18 22


Brooklyn

Brooklyn is one of six teams fighting for the last two seeds in the Eastern Conference. They will travel to Dallas from Houston for a match up with the Mavericks. The Mavericks have only allowed opposing teams to score 100+ points in three of the last ten games. This game is sitting at a 207 O/U, which is the second highest on the slate.

Elite Plays

Jarrett Jack is being eased back into action, and if he were to sit, Deron Williams would be an elite value play.

Secondary Plays

Joe Johnson – Dallas has been playing very good defense, but is giving up the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing SGs over the last three weeks. Johnson is priced right across the industry, and is more of a cash game option. He’s scored at least 27 fantasy points in four straight games since the All-Star break, and sees a nice bump if Bogdanovic sits again.

Dallas

Dallas is one of two teams on tonight’s slate that didn’t play last night. After playing three games in four nights, Dallas hasn’t played since Wednesday. They should be fresh for this matchup against Brooklyn, and gives us no concerns about minutes. Dallas is averaging the fourth-most points per game as a team this season, and Brooklyn is very middle of the road allowing 99.4 points per game.

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis – There aren’t a lot of studs to pay up for tonight, and it seems like a night to have a balanced approach. Ellis has really underperformed since the ASB, but they did play five games in seven nights. Ellis will be well rested for this matchup, and is always a guy with 50+-point upside. Brooklyn has struggled with opposing SGs all season, and they’re giving up the sixth-most points over the last three weeks.


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About the Author

  • Stephen Young (stevietpfl)

  • The long-time host of the popular Morning Grind, Stephen Young, aka stevietpfl is also one of the top NASCAR analysts in the industry. The RotoGrinders lead NASCAR analyst is a multiple time finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writer Association Racing Writer of the Year. Stevie is also a top baseball mind who excels in multiple sports in DFS. He has qualified for multiple live finals including a 3rd place finish at the 2015 FantasyAces Basketball Championship.

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Comments

  • GreatSteed

    I read Henry Walker as Henry Winkler….I shouldn’t read this stuff before coffee kicks in.

  • oxlodge42

    Nice early morning work there, big guy!!!!

  • radthad954

    2013 PFBC Finalist, 2013 PFFC Finalist, 2013 PBC Finalist

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Very nicely done, bearded one.

  • emac

    Nice work on a hard to decipher slate Stevie!

  • Burzerkers

    I’m admittedly too much of a #narrative guy but Greg Monroe, former Hoya, playing in DC gives him a little bump for me as well.

  • jessedio

    Jackson played like 30 quarters yesterday and still couldn’t hit 30 FP…SMH

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 925

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @jessedio said...

    Jackson played like 30 quarters yesterday and still couldn’t hit 30 FP…SMH

    Rough night for him for sure. I put up 334 with Jackson and Gibson lol.

    RadThad – Get Bearded son! Oh and Thanks lol.

    GreatSteed – Coffee is so nasty lol. We will call him Winkler if he duds tonight though.

    Burzerkers – Emac should have told me this Washington Narrative Street connection.

    oxlodge – Glad you enjoyed the early morning post.

  • ramsangels71

    Great stuff Stevie! It’s awesome seeing you do some hoops! Baseball just over a month away!

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 925

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @ramsangels71 said...

    Great stuff Stevie! It’s awesome seeing you do some hoops! Baseball just over a month away!

    Thanks man, I can’t wait!!

  • oxlodge42

    This looks like one of those nights where you can cash at around 270. Just a hunch, not a lot of high over/unders.

  • kon81

    al jefferson had the best fuckn matchup last night smdh

  • miamimike

    Not too much to like about Memphis? 4.5 spread, projected to score 99pts (not too bad), and against the almost worse defensive team in league at every position. I don’t like memphis, I love memphis. Granted, however picking the right combination is the harder part. I’ll probably just take the bigs.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 925

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @miamimike said...

    Not too much to like about Memphis? 4.5 spread, projected to score 99pts (not too bad), and against the almost worse defensive team in league at every position. I don’t like memphis, I love memphis. Granted, however picking the right combination is the harder part. I’ll probably just take the bigs.

    Memphis is a great “team”. It’s hard to predict whose going to be the top performer, and most of the time it’s the front court. The problem with the front court, they’re priced right and they have limited upside. Gasol and Zebo have nice floors, and could be considered cash game plays.

  • Mmirza23

    hey stevie, great stuff as usual. I wanted to ask about Markel Brown he’s 300 more than walker, would he be a better play?

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 925

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @Mmirza23 said...

    hey stevie, great stuff as usual. I wanted to ask about Markel Brown he’s 300 more than walker, would he be a better play?

    Brown has seen a nice increase in playing time with Bogdanovic on the sideline. Bogdanovic is probable to play tonight, and is a situation I’m staying away from. Not knowing what we will see, is a tough spot to play fantasy guys.

  • Shaps29

    Cover Winkler with beees..

  • bickey22

    Good stuff as always Stevie

  • BSinni

    Is Henry Walker the artist formerly known as Bill Walker? Played at KState with Beasly drafted by the Celts

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 925

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @BSinni said...

    Is Henry Walker the artist formerly known as Bill Walker? Played at KState with Beasly drafted by the Celts

    Yes he is

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