NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
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Chicago at New Orleans – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 197 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| Chicago | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.90 | Team Pace | 94.08 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Season | 12 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 11 | 26 | 16 | |
Chicago
On January 27th, The Bulls registered an impressive overtime win at Golden State. Since then, then Bulls have lost three straight games, including an overtime loss to the lowly Lakers. The Bulls will look to get back on track versus the Pelicans. The Pelicans are middle of the pack in points allowed, but have an elite rebounding differential thanks to the likes of AD and Asik.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 27-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8600, DK: $7700 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
After a brief rough stretch for Butler, “Jimmy Minutes” has responded with three consecutive 40+ FP performances. The Bulls have been off for several days, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Butler eclipse 40 minutes tonight. His price is more favorable on DraftKings, but is in play on all sites.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $7100, DK: $6600 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
While Gasol gets to deal with Anthony Davis for large stretches of the game, Noah will do battle with the slower Omer Asik. Noah has been rounding into form and can fill the stat sheet in a number of ways. His price hasn’t caught up to his recent production and makes for a nice play in a critical game for the Bulls.
Derrick Rose (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Rose has been a cash game specialist lately, with point totals ranging from 29.5 to 38.75 (DK points) over his last seven games. While he is unlikely to hit 6x value, he makes for a solid cash game play. He will be guarded by Tyreke Evans and should have a sizeable quickness advantage in that matchup.
New Orleans
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 30-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11400, DK: $10800 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Even by his lofty standards, Davis had an epic performance last night in a critical game versus the Thunder. He nailed the game-winner and finished with 41 points and 10 rebounds. He didn’t get his usual collection of blocks and steals, but still finished with a monster stat line. Tonight he’ll be guarded by Pau Gasol, who prefers to expend his energy on the offensive end of the court. His price is high, but no one has the kind of upside that Davis has on a given night.
Secondary Plays
Quincy Pondexter (FD: $3700, DK: $3100 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Pondexter has been a beneficiary of Jrue Holiday’s extended absence from the lineup. He has averaged over 30 minutes per game over his last three, and has averaged over 20 FPs during that span. He’s unlikely to explode for a monster game, but at almost min-price, he doesn’t need much to hit value.
Brooklyn at Washington – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Brooklyn | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.32 | Team Pace | 95.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | Opp. Season | 17 | 24 | 6 | 22 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 9 | |
Brooklyn
After losing four games in a row, the Nets have responded with three consecutive wins, including two versus quality opponents (at Toronto and home vs. the Clippers). They face another tough challenge in the defensively sound Wizards. The Wizards rank in the top 10 in points allowed, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This is the second game of a back-to-back, so make sure to check the lineups to see if there are any inactives, namely Garnett.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 31-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6700, DK: $6300 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Lopez exploded for 45+ FPs last night behind an incredible SIX blocks. It’s never a good idea to chase points, but the price and opportunity is right here. At his current price, he only needs about 35 points to hit value. The Wizards are sound in defending and rebounding, but Lopez should flirt with a double-double to get along with several blocks.
Kevin Garnett (FD: $4000, DK: $3100 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
The Nets are playing on the second game of a back-to-back, so it’s possible that Garnett will be given the night off, but I think he’ll be itching to face off versus his buddy Paul Pierce. This pick is DraftKings’ specific as Garnett is only $3100. At that price, he should easily hit value if he suits up.
Washington
Brooklyn is a slightly favorable matchup on paper, although the average defensive and rebounding numbers are slightly skewed due to the extended absence of Brook Lopez. Bradley Beal left Thursday night’s game with a toe injury, but is expected to play. If he is out, boost Rasual Butler and to a lesser extent, Garrett Temple.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 21-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Editor’s Note: Bradley Beal is out tonight
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9300, DK: $8800 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Wall has been battling migraines and a nagging Achilles, but he hasn’t let it affect his performance on the court. Wall averages five more fantasy points per game at home this season and is averaging a double-double at the Verizon Center. Neither Jack nor Williams will be able to deter Wall from having his way on the court. If Beal is forced to miss the game, Wall will also see a slight usage bump.
Secondary Plays
Paul Pierce (FD: $4900, DK: $4500 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Most will point to the obvious revenge game narrative here, but there is plenty to like about Pierce regardless of the revenge aspect. Pierce has been playing almost 30 minutes per game over his last 10 games and offers considerable upside for a reasonable price. REVENGE!
Golden State at New York – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
| Golden State | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.0 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.32 | Team Pace | 92.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 20 | Opp. Season | 11 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 11 | 22 | |
Golden State
Golden State will look to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Hawks in the most hyped game of the season thus far. The Knicks are the perfect team to rebound against and rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The biggest concern here is that starters are unlikely to play a full allotment of minutes as the game should be easily in hand.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10400, DK: $10400 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Curry loves the big stage and the stage doesn’t get much bigger than Madison Square Garden. Although the game should turn into a blowout, Curry’s production will likely be one of the reasons the game gets out of hand. There are other stars I would prefer to build around, but it’s hard to argue with a 45+ floor with 60 point upside in Curry.
Draymond Green (FD: $7100, DK: $7300 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Green had a monster 20 rebound performance last night on his way to 45 FPs. It would have been more if not for an uncharacteristic 2 points from one steal and no blocks. The Knicks won’t take care of the ball like the Hawks did and Green could be in store for 10+ points from steals and blocks. His price has also fallen to a very playable level.
New York
The Knicks are facing a Golden State team coming off of a rare loss. The spread of 15 points is one of the largest we have seen all season and the game could be over by halftime. The Warriors play at a fast past, but rank first in defensive efficiency. The return of Cole Aldrich and Amare Stoudemire have ruined potential values in Jason Smith and Louis Amundson. Carmelo Anthony is questionable this evening. If he plays, the Knicks look like an easy team to avoid on a seven game slate. If he is out, several players will receive a usage boost, although the game is even more likely to turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 39-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Editor’s Note: Carmelo Anthony is out tonight
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $5200, DK: $5300 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Even with the return of Carmelo Anthony and other Knicks, Galloway has continued to see plenty of playing time. His usage rate is down with Anthony back, but his ability to contribute in all categories has allowed him to stay fantasy relevant. He’s not going to match his 11 rebounds from last night, but continues to make a decent cash game play. His usage will receive a significant boost if Melo is out, and his minutes seem to be blowout proof.
Charlotte at Philadelphia – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -6.5, 183 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Roberts-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Sampson-McDaniels-Covington-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Charlotte | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 183 |  | Vegas Total | 183 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 88.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.16 | Team Pace | 98.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brian Roberts | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Jakarr Sampson | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 6 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 3 | |
Charlotte
Charlotte continues to hang on to a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference. They get a nice matchup with the 76ers in Philadelphia. While the 76ers aren’t as woefully bad defensively as you might think, they rank last in rebounding differential and 22nd in points allowed per game. Charlotte continues to adjust to life without Kemba Walker and could be without Lance Stephenson, who is questionable with tendinitis in his knee.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 11-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Editor’s Note: Lance Stephenson will play tonight
Elite Plays
Gerald Henderson (FD: $5300, DK: $4500 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
You don’t often see Henderson as an elite play, but he has seized the opportunity in front of him with increased usage due to injuries to Kemba Walker and Lance Stephenson. Although Stephenson has returned, it hasn’t affected Henderson’s production as he continues to produce at a high level. His price has risen (especially on FD), but he should still easily hit value as the offense will continue to run through him and Al Jefferson.
Secondary Plays
Brian Roberts (FD: $4900, DK: $4600)
Roberts has been solid, if slightly underwhelming, since taking over the starting role for the injured Kemba Walker. Although his upside is limited, he has developed a nice 25 point floor simply due to playing 35+ minutes a game. He’s never going to be a 8x value guy, but he gives you consistent production and allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Philadelphia
Comparatively speaking, the 76ers are playing some of their best basketball of the year. Before last night’s loss, the team had won 3 of 5 games. Their matchup tonight versus the Charlotte isn’t a favorable one as the Bobcats rank in the top 10 in points allowed, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. If Michael Carter-Williams is forced to miss another game, several values will open up as almost everyone will receive a boost in usage.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 22-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Editor’s Note: Michael Carter-Williams is out tonight
Elite Plays
None if MCW plays. If he doesn’t play, boost the secondary plays into elite plays
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $6300, DK: $5700 / MPG: / Usage Rate: )
Covington’s price has come up considerably, but he still makes for a nice play Saturday night. He has scored at least 16 actual points in three consecutive games, and also fills up the stat sheet with rebounds and steals. Covington could see an extra 4-5 shots and some additional rebounds and assists and MCW is forced to miss.
Hollis Thompson / Luc Richard Mbah Moute / K.J. McDaniels
It’s hard to know which 76er forwards will go off on a given night, so I’ve lumped them together here. Thompson has shown the most consistency of the three and is my favorite of the bunch and probably receives the largest boost if MCW is out.
Portland at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -2.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Portland | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 206 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 104.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.67 | Team Pace | 96.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Season | 22 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 24 | |
Portland
Portland gets its second straight game versus an uptempo team. Portland scored 108 points versus the fast-paced Suns on Friday night, and Vegas projects Portland to score over 100 again tonight. Despite having one of the best rebounders in the game (Tyson Chandler), Dallas ranks 29th in rebounding differential, which could mean a nice day on the boards for Lamarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 34-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9700, DK: $9500)
LaMarcus Aldridge is entering Zach Randolph territory as a guy that you can pencil in for a double-double each night. Tonight he gets the benefit of facing an uptempo team, which could lead to a few extra rebounds and points for Aldridge. He’ll likely be guarded by a combination of Dirk and Chandler, neither of whom should be able to slow him down.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5800, DK: $5300)
Batum seems to be slowly breaking out of his shooting slump and hit two threes in the uptempo game versus the Suns. His assist totals over the past three games are 7, 6, and 4 and is always a threat to stuff the stat sheet with rebounds and steals as well. He price is still depressed and makes for one of the top value plays tonight.
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews (FD: $6300, DK: $5700)
Matthews has been remarkably consistent this season, establishing himself as the perfect shooting guard to roster in cash games. His floor is about 25 points, but his upside is generally limited to 35 points. Matthews thrives in uptempo games and should knock down a handful of transition threes. You know what you’re getting in Matthews, and that’s not a bad thing.
Dallas
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 34-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
J.J. Barea (FD: $4700, DK: $4400)
Barea will likely get another start at point guard with Rondo set to miss another game due to injury. He has averaged over 25 FP’s over his last three games and should be set for 25+ again tonight. Lillard is an average defender and the Mavs will likely want to make him expend effort on the defensive end of the floor. This might be the last night to get him at a discounted price, so lock him in and spend up elsewhere.
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6100, DK: $5700)
Surprisingly, Parsons has been arguably the largest beneficiary of Rondo’s absence. Ignoring the recent stinker versus the Kings, Parsons averaged 35+ FP’s in the two prior games. He will be defended by Batum, which isn’t ideal, but Parsons should be able to get some easy buckets in transition as the Mavs will try to push the tempo.
Monta Ellis (FD: $7700, DK: $7700)
Ellis has taken over some of the primary ball-handling responsibilities in Rondo’s absence, although poor shooting performances have kept his production down. Despite a tough matchup with Wesley Matthews, I anticipate a good performance from Ellis tonight.