NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 7th - Page Two
Boston at Milwaukee – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6, 196 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Sullinger-Bass
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Dudley-Henson
| Boston | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.00 | Team Proj. | 101.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.71 | Team Pace | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Khris Middleton | Jared Dudley | John Henson | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 27 | 10 | 18 | Opp. Season | 19 | 3 | 17 | 27 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 18 | |
Boston
Boston has won three straight, and is playing its best basketball of the season. Boston faces off against a Milwaukee team that is also playing some of its basketball. The Bucks are an elite defensive team as evidenced by their top five rankings in points allowed and defensive efficiency. They don’t rebound the ball particularly well, so the Celtics could have success on the boards.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 27-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6500, DK: $7700)
Assuming Sullinger hasn’t been late for anything today, he’s an excellent play this evening. Sullinger went for 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists in 30 minutes last night. While he’s unlikely to duplicate the assist totals, I expect him to challenge the 22 and 8 numbers again this evening. The Bucks’ bigs are getting healthier, but should still be undermanned versus Sullinger.
Secondary Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4900, DK: $4600)
Smart has been excellent since being inserted into the starting lineup, scoring at least 26 DK points in four straight games. He’s a secondary play instead of an elite one due to the difficult matchup with Brandon Knight, but Smart should still meet value due to his depressed price.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is playing well lately and is continuing to get healthier. While good health is ultimately good for the team, it muddies the water slightly for Jason Kidd’s frustrating rotations. I would be hesitant to use too many Bucks until we determine what Kidd will do with a healthy roster.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 19-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $6000)
The Greek Freak went off for 50 FD FP’s last night in arguably his best game as a pro. He put up 27 points and 15 rebounds and it was his second consecutive game with 25+ actual points. His matchup with Avery Bradley isn’t ideal, but Alphabet will have a considerable size advantage.
Sacramento at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Utah -5.5, 196 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
| Sacramento | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.50 | Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.25 | Team Proj. | 100.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.4 | Team Pace | 92.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 2 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 8 | 21 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 24 | 8 | 28 | 23 | |
Sacramento
The Kings face off versus a slow paced, but defensively inept Utah team. The Jazz rebound the ball well, as shown by their second ranked rebounding differential, which could make life tougher on Boogie and the other Kings’ bigs. The Kings will likely be without Darren Collison, who should be replaced by Ramon Sessions in the starting lineup. This should mean extra shots for Cousins and Gay.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 17-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11000, DK: $10500)
There isn’t much left to say about DeMarcus Cousins at this point. He is the most dominant center in the game and it isn’t that close. He had a “bad” game versus Dallas and still managed 45+ DK points. He gets minutes even in blowouts and is a mortal lock for a double-double. The Jazz will throw a myriad of talented bigs at him, but Boogie is as matchup proof as they come.
Ramon Sessions (FD: $3500, DK: $3000)
Darren Collison is doubtful for tonight and Sessions will likely get the start at point guard. Although Sessions is not a special player, it’s hard to ignore a starting point guard at the minimum price. Don’t expect a ton from Sessions, but he should easily exceed value.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $7800, DK: $7400)
Gay stands to benefit from Collison’s absence and might be used as one of the primary ball-handlers. Gay shot the ball poorly in his last outing, but should rebound in a nice matchup with Hayward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gay and Hayward decided to go at each other and save energy at the defensive end.
Utah
Utah gets to face one of the worse defensive teams in the league who will also be without their best on-ball defender in Collison. The strength of the Utah team is their big men, who have the tough task of matching up with DeMarcus Cousins. Sacremento is the number one rebounding team in the league and this game will likely be won and lost on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 17-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8100, DK: $7800)
Hayward is the perfect GPP play as he has a tremendous ceiling, but low floor as well. He’ll face off versus Rudy Gay, who is generally more concerned about his effort on the offensive end of the floor. Don’t roll him out there in your cash games, but Hayward could be the player who helps you take down a GPP.