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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 10th

by JeffElJefe Last Updated 2015-01-13 14:21:19

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Charlotte at New York

Charlotte New York
Article Image Vegas Total 189 Article Image Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj.
Team Pace 94.89 Team Pace 92.55
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Gerald Henderson Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Bismack Biyombo Proj Starter Jose Calderon Pablo Prigioni Tim Hardaway Quincy Acy Cole Aldrich
Opp. Season 10 27 1 9 26 Opp. Season 22 20 2 6 15
Opp. Last 7 9 30 12 1 27 Opp. Last 7 20 11 14 6 16

Charlotte

The Hornets rank 23rd in pace of play and 25th in points per game. In general, they have been a good team to target lately with the value created by the Al Jefferson void. This is one of the few games that they will actually be playing down in pace, though, so temper your expectations. Lately much has been made of New York’s league-worst 39.9% opponent three-point percentage, but Charlotte doesn’t have many three-point shooters to capitalize on that.

Elite Plays

Gerald Henderson — Three straight games now of 34+ minutes and 32+ fantasy points on FanDuel for Henderson at a price of $5,600. He is the second option in the Hornets’ offense until Al Jefferson gets back and plays an extra 5-8 minutes if P.J. Hairston sits. That may not seem like much, but for a point-per-minute player, that’s a significant boost.

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker — Again, I’ll reference FanDuel here because $9,400 is very tempting. His usage with Jefferson out has resulted in him posted over 41 fantasy points in his last four games. He has scored no fewer than 29 actual points in that span also. He takes (and makes) more three-pointers than anyone else on the team too if you were looking for a way to take advantage of New York’s poor three-point defense.

Marvin Williams — If Cody Zeller sits, Williams would get enough minutes that he should easily reach cash game value. He’s a better play on FanDuel ($4,600) than on DraftKings ($4,800) but can be used on either site.

New York

Above, I mentioned that the Hornets are playing down in pace. The Knicks’ 92.8 possessions per game ranks only above Utah and Miami and leads to low-scoring games that are very unappealing for fantasy purposes. They are also so bad that games often turn into blowouts, leaving the starters for both teams on the bench late in games (which is how their last game went).

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Langston Galloway — Galloway is the only Knick I’ll touch today. He’s a young D-League player recently called up that has a lot of potential. He’s a confident and aggressive scorer that loves pressure situations. He had to have impressed enough to earn himself at least 20 minutes today, and his aggressiveness will lead to continued point-per-minute production. Bare minimum price or close to it across the industry.

Dallas at L.A. Clippers

Dallas L.A. Clippers
Article Image Vegas Total 214 Article Image Vegas Total 214
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 97.04 Team Pace 96.46
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Monta Ellis Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Tyson Chandler Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Matt Barnes Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 1 21 15 20 13 Opp. Season 29 9 16 12 11
Opp. Last 7 21 21 20 27 3 Opp. Last 7 11 13 8 28 19

Dallas

Dallas has been an elite offensive team this year, with their points per game (109.1) only a tenth of a point behind league-leading Golden State. They are extremely efficient as well with 11.9 turnovers per game (3rd) and a 47.6% field goal percentage (2nd). They match up against the Clippers (another efficient team on offense), so there should be plenty of scoring.

Elite Plays

Tyson Chandler — Rudy Gobert will certainly be the popular play in this price range on DraftKings, but Chandler at $6,600 is a nice pivot. He has been below 29 fantasy points only once in his previous ten games, and that was against the tough front line of Washington. This matchup against the Clippers is much better.

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis — Ellis is a guy that we’ve seen his price drop from $7,800 on DraftKings just a couple weeks ago to now $7,000. He hasn’t been below 28 DK points in his last ten games, and that’s 4x his salary. You’re getting a nice floor with a guy that has the ball in his hands a lot and he makes for a solid cash game play.

L.A. Clippers

This is the first time that the Clippers and Mavericks have faced each other this season and Vegas is projecting fireworks. This is a very high total with a small spread — the perfect type of game to attack in DFS. The Mavericks rank among the worst against point guards this season, though Rondo has received praise of late for his effort and improvement there.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul — The Clippers have been playing some bad teams lately and Chris Paul hasn’t needed to play very many minutes. This will be a competitive game with a lot of scoring and Paul will be relied on to be aggressive.

Blake Griffin — While Dirk Nowitzki is known for drawing his defender away from the basket and reducing his defensive rebound production, Griffin is one of the few power forwards that doesn’t rely on double-digit rebounding totals in order to have big fantasy games. He has been getting a lot of assists, and a high-scoring game like this one will help those numbers.

Brooklyn at Detroit

Brooklyn Detroit
Article Image Vegas Total 196 Article Image Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 94.36 Team Pace 95.62
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Sergey Karasev Joe Johnson Kevin Garnett Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Brandon Jennings Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Singler Greg Monroe Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 9 17 7 28 17 Opp. Season 23 11 24 17 14
Opp. Last 7 12 25 9 17 21 Opp. Last 7 5 2 23 8 25

Brooklyn

Brooklyn is trying to hold onto a playoff spot right now, but their current four-game losing streak, that includes back-to-back home losses against Boston and Philadelphia, makes you question their ability to do so. They are without Deron Williams for a while, so Jarrett Jack will be a popular play for as long as his salary remains as low as it has been.

Elite Plays

Jarrett Jack — There has been talk about reducing his minutes, so if ever there were a time to do it, it would be on the second game in as many nights. With the lack of depth at the position, Jack still should see 30 minutes even in games where he gets a lighter workload.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Garnett — The Nets rested Garnett last night with this game in mind. He will be needed to play substantial minutes against a large Detroit front court. He is priced all the way down to $3,500 on DraftKings and has the ability to 10x that number in 25-30 minutes, should he get the opportunity.

Detroit

Last night, Detroit finally got their first loss since the release of Josh Smith. This one was nothing to be ashamed of as they were in it until the final shot against Atlanta, one of the best teams in the East. Andre Drummond had to sit out much of last night’s game due to illness and his status for tonight is unknown. I can’t find any players that I’m comfortable with based on price for the Pistons tonight.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

Indiana at Philadelphia

Indiana Philadelphia
Article Image Vegas Total 187 Article Image Vegas Total 187
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 90.5
Team Pace 95.19 Team Pace 99.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter C.J. Watson Rodney Stuckey Solomon Hill David West Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Robert Covington Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Nerlens Noel Henry Sims
Opp. Season 15 30 30 24 20 Opp. Season 16 18 3 5 23
Opp. Last 7 4 29 3 25 23 Opp. Last 7 6 24 27 16 7

Indiana

In this Pacers-76ers matchup, we are going to see two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Indiana ranks 26th in points per game (95.4) and 27th in field goal percentage (43%). They are definitely playing up in pace tonight and will have a very big advantage on the glass as they rank 5th in rebounding rate while Philadelphia ranks 29th.

Elite Plays

Roy Hibbert — He’s coming off a monster game against a somewhat similar team (Boston) to Philadelphia where he had 49.25 DK points. He’s an elite GPP option tonight on DK. The price is even better on FanDuel at only $5,200. On FanDuel, you can even use him in cash games, but his GPP upside is through the roof.

Secondary Plays

David West — He hasn’t done a whole lot lately, but he’s not killing any lineups. I think this is the perfect type of game for West to get back on track. With how many shots the Sixers miss every game, we should see West at or near double digit rebounds to go along with his consistent 10-12 points he gets on offense.

Philadelphia

I don’t like the way this game sets up for the 76ers in general, but there are some prices that we can take advantage of in certain spots. Paying up for Michael Carter-Williams would be a mistake right now in my opinion, and with Tony Wroten the subject of trade rumors, he should not be in your lineups in case of a last second trade. The value is in the cheaper guys.

Elite Plays

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute — $3,000 on DK, he paid off nearly 10x last night against Brooklyn. If he gets the start again, you can plug him into your DK lineups.

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington — He had a career-high six steals last night and five steals a few games before that. He rebounded from a poor shooting night with 20 points on 8-12 shooting last night. On FanDuel where you have to roster two small forwards, Covington is a solid option under $6,000. There are too many forward options on DK for him to be in consideration there outside of a GPP dart.

Boston at Toronto

Boston Toronto
Article Image Vegas Total 208 Article Image Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Vegas Sprd -11.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 99.84 Team Pace 95.85
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Evan Turner Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Tyler Zeller Proj Starter Kyle Lowry Terrence Ross Landry Fields Amir Johnson Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 27 3 28 11 6 Opp. Season 17 8 8 30 24
Opp. Last 7 30 16 10 9 6 Opp. Last 7 14 20 1 30 14

Boston

With the trades of Brandan Wright to Phoenix and Jeff Green to Memphis, we will need to be paying close attention to how usage rates and minutes change for Boston. If you just use last night to base your projections off of, then you can essentially stack the Celtics starters and build from there. That’s a risky approach for cash games, but I like the strategy of taking three to four for a GPP lineup.

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley — Bradley is risky because there are games where he just can’t hit a shot. When he is able to score 20+ points though, he does enough in other areas to give him tremendous upside. The loss of Jeff Green will lead to more shots for someone, and Bradley is a likely candidate.

Evan Turner — It’s not the additional shots that will benefit Turner most, but the minutes. If he can hover around 30 minutes per game now, he’s going to be a very productive fantasy player with a high usage rate.

Jae Crowder — He filled in very nicely for Jeff Green last night and is near minimum price. Even if they use a different starter, Crowder will see a big enough bump in minutes to pay off his low salary.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger — Sullinger is a boom or bust player that probably won’t be impacted much by the Jeff Green trade. He had three 40+ fantasy point days in a four-game stretch recently and can be had for pretty cheap considering. $6,400 on both FanDuel and DraftKings but GPP only.

Toronto

This is one of the big spreads of the night, but if Boston can keep this close, there will be a lot of great options on Toronto. Boston is second overall in pace of play and gives up the fifth-most points to opponents. They struggle against point guards and big men but handle the wings well with Avery Bradley pestering the shooting guards. Their ability to defend small forwards will be challenged with the departure of Green.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry — Lowry has been below 42 fantasy points on FanDuel only twice in his last ten games. At $9,800, you’re not expecting much more than that from him. The pace sets up well for Lowry and he should have his way against the Celtics.

Secondary Plays

Greivis Vasquez / Louis Williams — I like pairing Vasquez and Williams in this game for a GPP if you project this game to get out of hand. There isn’t much depth in the area of ball-handlers so their minutes are pretty much locked in.

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About the Author

JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe

Working in the Fantasy Sports industry since 2012, Jeff has witnessed Daily Fantasy Sports from every angle: business, content, and as a player. He’s been featured in the New York Times, the L.A. Times, numerous books including Dan Barbarisi’s “Dueling with Kings”, and numerous documentaries including Jason Baumgardner’s “Perfect Lineup”.

On the business side he worked with several startup operators in direct competition with FanDuel and DraftKings. Jeff brought a player’s perspective to the product side of things and was innovative with new features that you see the bigger sites now implementing today.

Content has always been a passion for him, so the opportunity to write for RotoGrinders early in his career was something to jump at. Jeff hosted popular shows for MLB, NBA, and NFL content and often focused on teaching a contrarian approach long before it was cool to do so.

Jeff’s run as a player has been capped off by what many refer to as the best year in DFS tournament history. A baseball live final win (DK), a football Million dollar score, and 2 2nd place finishes in FD live finals.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffKCollins