NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Sacramento at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -5.5, 198 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Sacramento | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.34 | Team Pace | 95.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 10 | Opp. Season | 24 | 29 | 9 | 19 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 8 | 28 | |
Sacramento
DeMarcus Cousins played through an ankle injury last night, so he should be on track to play again tonight. This isn’t a great matchup for the Kings as they will be playing down in pace quite a bit. Indiana has struggled against shooting guards all season though, and though the Pacers have good defenders in the paint with David West and Roy Hibbert, Cousins is as matchup-proof as they come and is in consideration every night.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins — The amazing thing about Cousins last night is that he didn’t have a good game by his standards — he shot 5-17 from the field and didn’t impact the 4th quarter at all — yet he still had an incredible fantasy game.
Secondary Plays
Ben McLemore — At $4,000 on DraftKings with the three-point bonus and a prime matchup, I’ll be throwing McLemore in some tournament lineups. He’s the stereotypical GPP play in that he’s either going to 3x or 6x his salary, but the price and matchup point toward him being on the positive end of that tonight.
Indiana
With the pace that Sacramento likes to play at since the firing of Mike Malone, opponents are scoring more fantasy points than the league average at every position. Their best DvP ranking in the past three weeks has been against power forwards (ranked 16th), but every other position is bottom ten in the league. Luis Scola is listed as doubtful and Lavoy Allen is listed as questionable, so there could be some value to be had in the frontcourt.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ian Mahinmi — I’m a big fan of what Mahinmi does when he gets a minutes boost. This is one of those sneakier plays too since it’s not a starter missing time, rather potentially two reserves. But at $3,200 on DraftKings, $3,600 on Fantasy Aces, and $3,900 on FanDuel he gives you a lot of cap flexibility with 20+ fantasy point production if he gets the minutes.
C.J. Watson — The Pacers are still taking it easy on George Hill and only use Donald Sloan if they absolutely have to. That means Watson is safe for around 30 minutes per night for the time being. For teams that play up in pace, guards are the first players that I look at. And with Watson, you get a guard that has reached value in four of his last games on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Rodney Stuckey — This is a FanDuel-specific play for me where he is priced at $5,100 and has gone 6x with that salary in his previous two games. The minutes limit on Hill (and C.J. Miles) also is a positive thing for Stuckey as he’s averaged over 33 minutes his last four games. Sacramento is ranked 29th against shooting guards on the season and 28th over the last three weeks.
Dallas at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8.5, 210 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Gordon-Frye-Vucevic
| Dallas | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.64 | Team Pace | 96.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Richard Jefferson | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Aaron Gordon | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 29 | Opp. Season | 22 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 27 | 19 | 19 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 22 | |
Dallas
Dallas has not been playing well recently as Rajon Rondo struggles to fit in, so it was very encouraging for them to blow out Miami last night. They are probably the most predictable team in sports — they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams — so they should easily handle Orlando tonight. Chandler Parsons missed last night’s game due to illness and should be considered questionable for tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
Tyson Chandler — Maybe my favorite play of the day. Nikola Vucevic is a very good offensive center, but not good on the defensive end. His offensive abilities will require that Dallas uses Chandler whenever he is on the floor, and he plays a few minutes more per game than Chandler averages on the season. And during that time on the floor, if Chandler can provide some offense (the Magic give up the fifth-most actual points to centers), we could see him put up a monster fantasy game.
Secondary Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu — If Chandler Parsons misses another game, here’s another value play worth considering. He’s played 29 minutes in each of his previous two games with GPP-winning production at near the minimum price everywhere. Whether or not Richard Jefferson starts the game or not will have no impact on Aminu’s minutes or production.
Orlando
The big talk around Orlando is that head coach Jacque Vaughn will be fired within the next few days. It’s always interesting to see how players respond in these situations, but I’m not hearing anything to suggest a big game from anyone on this team fueled by a motivation to keep Vaughn around. However, the Mavericks play some of the highest-scoring games in the league (only behind Golden State and Phoenix…more on this later!), so there is still reason to roster some Magic players.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo — With Elfrid Payon and Nikola Vucevic in the toughest matchups, Oladipo gets a boost here. He is better suited for a tournament lineup especially since it’s tough to predict how the Magic players will respond to the coaching rumors, but has the upside to get it done.
Editor’s Note: Oladipo is out for tonight’s game. Evan Fournier will start at shooting guard.
Toronto at Washington – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -4, 204 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
| Toronto | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.90 | Team Pace | 95.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 15 | 24 | 7 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 23 | |
Toronto
The return of DeMar DeRozan has been a great boost for Toronto. They have won five straight now after an overtime win against the Nets last night. Tonight will be a tough test as they might be without Jonas Valanciunas against one of the best teams in the league. Washington is top seven at defending all five positions on the season which has me avoiding all Raptors. Patrick Patterson will be popular if Valanciunas misses this game, so I’m mentioning him here (because people will be mad if I don’t), but I can’t see having much exposure to him myself.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
This game will be a great game to watch for fans of the NBA, but I don’t project it to be great for fantasy. On an eleven-game slate, there are simply just better options than you’ll find in a defensive battle like this one. Toronto has been in the top eight against both forward positions and shooting guards, but has struggled against point guards and centers.
Elite Plays
John Wall — He’s been playing through migraines and some small nagging injuries, but we know to target John Wall at home where he averages five fantasy points per game more than he does on the road. On Fantasy Aces, at $6,350, you need around 41 fantasy points for him to reach value (I use a 6.5x multiple there or 7x for the Q that they run). The Raptors are 20th against point guards the last three weeks. He sat out shootaround so keep an eye on his status. Andre Miller is not someone that I’d use if Wall sits.
Secondary Plays
None
Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -17, 192 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 17.0 | Vegas Sprd | -17.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 87.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.09 | Team Pace | 96.11 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 5 | Opp. Season | 21 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 29 | 20 | |
Philadelphia
The 76ers enter this game against the Hawks on the back end of a back to back. The Hawks are one of the best teams in the NBA and are elite defensively, so I can’t even recommend guys like Michael Carter-Williams or Nerlens Noel in GPPs. With such a low projected team total (points), you can comfortable avoid this team on a big Saturday slate with many other options.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta
I will be almost completely avoiding this game both in cash games and GPPs because of the huge spread and low total, but there is one play in this game that could end up being in every one of my lineups. It all hinges on the statuses of DeMarre Carroll and Thabo Sefalosha. Carroll missed the game yesterday with an Achilles injury and his replacement, Sefalosha, injured his calf in the first quarter. I can’t imagine that either would be pressed back into action in a game like this where they likely wouldn’t be needed anyway, but it’s the news that I’ll be keeping my eye on the most throughout the day.
Elite Plays
Kent Bazemore — Because of the early injury to Sefalosha last night, Bazemore ended up logging 40 minutes. It led to 28.3 points on DraftKings, where’s he’s min-priced (and also min-priced on FanDuel), but his pricing on Fantasy Aces ($3,750) makes him less of a must-play. While he might not play 40+ minutes again, he’s locked in for 30+, whether it’s a blowout or not, if both small forwards ahead of him on the depth chart can’t go. We saw last year on the Lakers how great he is in garbage time, and a huge game is not out of the question.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -4.5, 204 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| Houston | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.60 | Team Pace | 96.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 14 | 29 | 28 | 26 | Opp. Season | 2 | 23 | 15 | 22 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 13 | 29 | 2 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 29 | 18 | 18 | 10 | |
Houston
Josh Smith is getting hot just in time to face his old team in Detroit. It looks like Dwight Howard will be out for quite a while, but Terrence Jones is starting to get some minutes in his return from injury. Donatas Motiejunas had a career-high in points (26) last night, so with Motie, Smith and Jones all best suited for minutes at the power forward position, it will be interesting to see how they are used when Jones has his minutes restriction lifted.
Elite Plays
Josh Smith — Josh Smith doubters will call this a trap, but Smith should be one of the highest-owned players of the night in tournaments. Ask anyone familiar with rostering Smith when the best time to roster him is, and they’ll tell you it’s when he’s hot and motivated. He’s a very streaky player, and as we’ve seen with him getting benched or challenged over the years, he rises to the occasion in those situations. He’ll be very motivated to show up the team that released him tonight. I’ll have a lot of Josh Smith.
James Harden — With Howard out, it’s supposed to be the Harden show. Owners were definitely disappointed last night, but he will still be one of the top elite options of the slate. Harden has reached the 50 point mark on FanDuel 20 times this season, which is more than any other player in the league, and most of those games were with Howard out.
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas — I can’t say that I necessarily recommend playing all three of these guys together in a bunch of lineups tonight, but it’s possible certainly in a GPP game stack lineup. Motiejunas’ consistency recently has been incredible and he has been a constant in my cash games for a while now.
Detroit
The Pistons would be the team to play up in tempo tonight since the Rockets are 4th in the league in pace, but often times good teams are the ones that control the pace of the game at home. The Rockets have one of the best on-ball point guard defenders in Patrick Beverley to pester D.J. Augustin, so look for the Pistons to run some of their offense through Greg Monroe in the high-post if Augustin struggles early.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe — $5,800 on Fantasy Aces tonight, Monroe is a great guy to use in a balanced cash game lineup. His consistency has been great since the Josh Smith exodus, and he does still have the upside for GPPs. He will be more contrarian than usual with how many deep power forward is this evening, and on FA you can play five power forwards if you want.