NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Boston at Indiana – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -8.5, 193 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Boston | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.31 | Team Pace | 95.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 8 | Opp. Season | 16 | 3 | 25 | 25 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6 | 11 | |
Boston
Boston is coming off a big win against the Magic, and are one of four teams fighting for the last two spots to make the playoffs. Boston has won three straight, and will look to keep it going against another team in the playoff hunt. This will be the third game in four nights for the Celtics. Indiana is sixth in defensive efficiency, and plays at a much slower pace than Boston.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Avery Bradley – No one is playing consistent enough for me to record a main play, but Bradley is a very interesting GPP play. Evan Turner will be popular after his big game against the Magic last night. The Magic are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing SFs. The Pacers are fourth-best against opposing SF in the last three weeks. Shooting guard is the only position the Pacers aren’t in the top ten defensively. Bradley has played at least 34 minutes in his return from injury, and makes for a very interesting low-owned option in tournaments tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers come in with the longest winning streak (seven games) in the East right now, and will look to stay hot against the Celtics. Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite, with a 193 total. The Pacers will be playing at a faster pace than they’re used to, and this should benefit the guards with a few extra possessions.
Elite Plays
Rodney Stuckey – Stuckey has been a man on a mission since the All-Star break. He’s averaging 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assist, and 29 minutes per game since the break. Over the last 14 days, Stuckey has a usage rate of 24%, also receiving a slight bump when Hill is off the court. With very limited amount of SGs in play tonight, I’m willing to risk a bench player who is averaging 33 fantasy points over the last 14 days.
Secondary Plays
George Hill – Hill would be an elite play for me, but his minutes are all over the place right now. He’s only played over 30 minutes once in the last five games. Boston plays at a much faster pace than the Pacers, and this should lead to Hill having a few extra possessions. He’s a solid cash game option tonight, but lacks the upside with the limited minutes he’s playing.
Roy Hibbert – It pains me to write Hibbert up, but he’s going to be a low owned option for GPPs tonight. I wouldn’t recommend playing him in cash games. Boston is ranked 24th against centers this season and 18th is rebound differential. Hibbert is good for a few great games a season, and this is a great matchup for him. Hibbert is coming off a few extra days of rest.
Sacramento at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -8.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Landry-Cousins
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Sacramento | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.72 | Team Pace | 95.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Carl Landry | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 16 | 27 | |
Sacramento
Sacramento is coming off a disappointing loss to the 76ers, and have lost seven of their last ten games. They’re not playing any defense right now, and are looking forward to this season being over soon. This game is sitting with a total of 206.5, which is the highest total on the board. A blowout is something to worry about, but as always it’s hard to project blowouts in the NBA.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins’ price is among the few things holding him back from being an elite play tonight, along with playing in his third game in four nights. Cousins dominated the 76ers last night, but ended up playing 40 minutes. Washington is tenth-best against opposing centers over the last three weeks. Cousins has a ton of upside, but I feel like he’s a little risky for cash games tonight considering everything
Ray McCallum – McCallum is still priced as a discount on some sites, and has quietly been averaging 22 fantasy points over the last 14 days. With the injury to Collison, McCallum is averaging 30 minutes a game and getting a lot of run with the starters. The Wizards are giving up the tenth-most points to opposing PGs over the last three weeks, and McCallum is a sneaky play on this boring six-game slate.
Washington
Washington gets a pretty easy matchup at home tonight, where they have lost four of their last five games. Sacramento has given up at least 100 points in nine straight games, and has the fourth-worst defensive efficiency this season. Nene missed practice Friday for personal reasons, and this is something to keep an eye on. Kris Humphries has already been ruled out for tonight, and this would make Drew Gooden a solid value play if they both end up sitting tonight.
Elite Plays
Marcin Gortat – The Polish Hammer has been breaking the DFS bank for us for the past week or so. He has at least 30 fantasy points in five of the last six games. The Kings have struggled guarding centers all season long, and are allowing the most blocks to centers throughout the whole season. Gortat is one of my favorite centers on the slate tonight.
John Wall – With the lack of studs on this slate, Wall has potential to be the highest scoring player tonight. He’s averaging just over 40 fantasy points in his last five games, and has been doing a great job filling the stat sheet. The blowout worries me a little, but not enough to not make me want to roster Wall tonight.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal – One thing that hasn’t changed all season, the Kings give up the most points to opposing SGs. We saw it with Covington (36 FD points) last night, Henderson (40 FD points) on Wednesday, and Wade (39 FD points) on the 7th of March. Beal has seen his price drop over the last week, and this is a great opportunity for him to have a nice game.
Brooklyn at Philadelphia – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5.5, 192 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Sampson-Covington-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Brooklyn | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 93.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.57 | Team Pace | 98.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 29 | 14 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 15 | 27 | 8 | 27 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 27 | 25 | |
Brooklyn
Brooklyn will head to Philadelphia tonight, and look to snap this five-game losing streak. Vegas thinks this game will stay close, and that means it will be a game we target on this tough slate. Brooklyn is only a 5.5-point favorite with a 192 total. The Nets play at a much slower pace than Philly, and should benefit from a few extra possessions.
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez – Finally playing starter minutes, Lopez has three double-doubles in the last four games. We saw what Cousins did to the 76ers last night. They’re ranked dead last against centers and are 29th in rebounding differential this season. Lopez has one of the highest floors for cash games, but has nice upside if this game stays close.
Secondary Plays
None.
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is coming off a win against Sacramento last night, but has lost seven of their last ten games. They will look for back-to-back wins for the first time since January. Brooklyn is struggling right now, and the 76ers have been able to really stay in games since the ASB. Brooklyn is ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel – Noel is averaging over 37 fantasy points over the last 14 days, and hasn’t had a game less than 30 fantasy points in the last eight. Brooklyn is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing centers over the last three weeks. Noel’s price is on par with expecations on a lot of sites, but he’s one of my favorite cash game plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Ish Smith – With the news that Canaan was starting last night, a lot of people moved off Ish, and he was 4% owned in some of the big GPPs. There’s certainly some risk involved in taking him, but he is out playing Canaan right now. I don’t trust him for cash games, but he’s one of my favorite GPP plays tonight. He has at last 29 fantasy points in four of his last six games, and at least 6 assists in four straight games.
Milwaukee at Memphis – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Milwaukee | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185 |  | Vegas Total | 185 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 94.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 2 | Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 25 | 3 | |
Milwaukee
Milwaukee and Memphis have really struggled over the last ten games, but are both top ten defensive teams. The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, and have struggled on the road all season. Both of these teams will look to slow down the pace, and makes it very tough to recommend playing anyone from this game. Middleton has been playing very well, but his price and matchup make it very tough to play him tonight.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams – Carter-Williams is one of the only players I’m looking at in this entire game, and I wouldn’t consider anyone from the Bucks for cash games. MCW has put together three strong games in a row, and seems like minutes are no longer an issue with him. Memphis has been middle of the road defensively against opposing PGs, and MCW makes for a sneaky GPP play tonight.
Memphis
Like Milwaukee, Memphis is struggling and has lost six of their last ten games. Memphis has been fantastic at home this season (24-7), and will look to snap this two-game skid against the Bucks. With both of these teams playing good defense, and the Memphis frontcourt priced without room for much upside, it’s tough to recommend anyone from this game. Marc Gasol is in play if you want a solid floor for cash games, and the same goes with Zach Randolph. Both of those guys really lack that GPP upside, however.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
None.
Detroit at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -7.5, 185 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Monroe-Drummond
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Detroit | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185 |  | Vegas Total | 185 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.8 | Team Proj. | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.79 | Team Pace | 92.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 1 | Opp. Season | 4 | 16 | 16 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 26 | |
Detroit
Detroit has gone from a playoff contender to a team that just can’t win right now. They have lost nine straight games, and will be playing their fourth game in five nights. This really screams “fade” with Detroit being 7.5-point underdogs in a 185 total game. Utah is giving up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing PGs and centers over the last three weeks.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe – Monroe has been consistent with 30+ fantasy points in nine of the last ten games. Like I mentioned above, this team screams fade tonight. With that said, I don’t mind Monroe as a tournament option. He’s a guy that gives you 40-50 point upside any night of the week. I’m betting on Monroe to see an increase in usage tonight with Drummond in a tough matchup against Gobert (if he plays), which will hopefully lead to the right call on recommending him for GPPs.
Utah
Utah is coming off a big win against the Rockets on Thursday night, but may be without the guy that led the way for them. Gobert is questionable with an ankle injury, and this will be news to check on throughout the day. If he plays, he’s definitely in play for me tonight. Trevor Booker would likely be the guy to step in if Gobert sits. Utah has won eight of their last ten games, and will look to give Detroit their tenth straight loss. With a win at home tonight, the Jazz would be .500 at home this season.
Elite Plays
Derrick Favors – We are going to see a tired Pistons team tonight, and I fully expect Favors to dominate this game. The Pistons are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing PFs over the last three weeks. With the recent struggles, and playing their fourth game in five nights, Favors is an elite option for cash and tournaments for me tonight. Favors will get a nice boost if Gobert ends up sitting tonight.
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward – Hayward has put up 40+ fantasy points in three of the last five games, and has been shooting the ball very well (almost 50% FG%) in that stretch. The two things that really concern me about Hayward tonight are the 185 total and the fact that Detroit is top ten against SFs over the last three weeks. With limited options at SF, I don’t mind him in cash games, but you won’t see him in any of my tournament lineups tonight.