NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 22nd Page Two
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Orlando at Utah
- Vegas Line – Utah -5, 196 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
Orlando
The Magic are the league’s worst road team and I’m surprised that Vegas is giving them so much love tonight. While the Jazz have lost 11 of their last 12 games, I do think they pick up a win tonight. As far as the matchup goes, neither team has been very good defensively this season. The Jazz are ranked 13th or worse against every position on the floor and have really struggled to defend Centers. Jameer Nelson is questionable for tonight’s game. Make sure to check on his status closer to tipoff because Victor Oladipo would make a terrific fill play.
- Nikola Vucevic – In their first meeting, Vucevic posted 14 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 3 steals. Vucevic was thrown out of their last game and that poor performance has lowered his price tag on a few of the sharper sites. The Jazz are ranked 24th against Centers this season and Vucey makes a very solid play tonight.
Utah
The Jazz are a team that plays well at home and they draw a very favorable matchup tonight against the Magic. The Magic play at a faster pace than the Jazz (96 possessions per game) and are ranked 15th or worse against all positions on the floor. Alec Burks is not expected to play tonight and even though he is a bench player, he has been averaging 28 minutes per game over the last month. His absence should open up minutes for Gordon Hayward and Richard Jefferson. Derrick Favors makes a nice upside play tonight. The Magic are a team that gets blocked often and Favors had 5 blocks in their first meeting.
- Gordon Hayward – Hayward is one of those players that fills up all areas of the stat sheet. Anytime he scores 20+ actual points, it is a big bonus. With Alec Burks being doubtful for tonight’s game, Hayward should see close to 40 minutes. The Magic are giving up the 6th most FP’s to SF’s this season and Hayward makes a great play tonight.
San Antonio at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -1, 208 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut
San Antonio
I warned you about the Spurs players possibly sitting out last night’s game and it looks like I may be one day late. Coach Pop said that if Tony Parker and Tim Duncan played more than 30 minutes against the Kings than he would think about sitting them tonight against the Warriors. Since this is a late game, we likely won’t know their status until after the first game tips off.
This news just makes it hard to target anyone on the Spurs unless you are playing on a late swap site. If Tim Duncan and Tony Parker end up sitting out, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Tiago Splitter would all see a nice fantasy boost and would all make decent punt plays tonight. For those of you playing on non late swap sites, let’s just hope Pop makes his decision before 7:00 ET.
Golden State
The Warriors fantasy value actually hinges on Parker and Duncan as well. If Pop decides to sit his best two players, this game could easily turn into a blowout. Both of these teams are getting ready for the playoffs and it’s just so difficult to predict what both of these coaches are thinking. Andre Iguodala will miss tonight’s game, but the rest of the Warriors should all be in the lineup. The two positions that are most favorable against the Spurs are the PG and Center positions.
Detroit at L.A.Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -13, 215.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Singler-Smith-Monroe
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
Detroit
The Pistons are all but out of their playoff race as they have lost their last 4 games and 8 of their last 10. The Pistons are huge underdogs tonight against the Clippers which is never a good sign for fantasy value. The Clippers are a very fast paced team though so there will be plenty of points scored by the Pistons, the question is whether or not they can keep this game close.
Brandon Jennings should be avoided across the industry. He’s already inconsistent and tonight he has to face Chris Paul who is holding his opponent to the fewest FP’s of all PG’s this season. Josh Smith is a nice tournament play, but should be avoided in cash games. He just doesn’t have a high enough floor to warrant cash game consideration. Andre Drummond looked good in his return last night and is probably the best play here as the Clippers are ranked 22nd against Centers this season.
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers have a terrific matchup tonight against the Pistons. The Pistons aren’t quite as juicy of a matchup as the Lakers, Sixers, or Nuggets, but they are close. The Pistons are ranked 17th or worse against all five positions on the floor. The Clippers are projected to score 114 points which is by far the highest of the night. Jamal Crawford is tentatively expected to play tonight. While Darren Collison will start, he does cut into Collison’s production. DeAndre Jordan makes a great play at Center, in their first meeting he had 16 points, 21 rebounds, and 4 blocks.
- Chris Paul – There is some concern that Paul would see limited minutes tonight if the Clippers get up big, but the matchup is too good to ignore. The Clippers have surrendered the 6th most FP’s to PG’s this season and CP3 has been extremely consistent over his last 7 games. He has posted a double-double in 5 of his last 7 games.
- Blake Griffin – Griffin seems to get into a fight every single night, but he hasn’t let it affect his production. Griffin has scored at least 47 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games and has a terrific matchup against this Pistons team that does not defend the paint well and has very bad weak side defense. I expect Griffin to have a highlight reel of dunks tonight.