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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 7th

by Taylor Ezell (ezellmt) Last Updated 2015-03-10 17:24:20

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Memphis at New Orleans – 7:00 PM EST

Memphis New Orleans
memphisnba Vegas Total 190 neworleansnba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 94.19 Team Pace 93.97
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Quincy Pondexter Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 16 17 12 8 9 Opp. Season 5 11 17 3 2
Opp. Last 7 10 19 12 8 17 Opp. Last 7 13 27 7 22 6

Memphis

The Grizzlies weren’t terribly impressive in their win versus the Lakers on Friday, as they trailed by four points going into the fourth quarter. They would have liked to have given the starters some rest, but everyone but Courtney Lee played at least 32 minutes. The Pelicans are also playing the second of a back to back, so this might be a moot point, but David Joerger has proven in the past that he will stick with his second unit for long stretches if they get it going. The Pelicans are a great rebounding team thanks to Davis and Asik, but rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency.

Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 33-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

Conley’s price on both FanDuel and DraftKings is hovering around $6k, which is quite affordable for someone of his caliber. He is much quicker than the larger Tyreke Evans and should beat him off the dribble with regularity. He hasn’t shown extreme upside lately, but his consistency has been impressive. He has scored at least 20+ FP’s in four straight games and has gone over 27 FP’s in three of those. Conley makes a safe cash game play.

Marc Gasol

Davis will likely guard Zach Randolph, which should leave Asik to line up with Gasol. The Grizzlies could look to utilize Gasol’s quickness advantage and his ability to pass from the high post as the focal point of the offense. Much like Conley, Gasol doesn’t have a high ceiling because of the Grizzlies’ balanced attack, but he should be a lock to eclipse 30 FP’s with the potential to exceed 40.

New Orleans

The Pelicans lost a winnable game last night and have the difficult task trying to rebound versus Memphis, who has the third best road record in the NBA. Every game counts for the Pelicans as they are trying to claw back into the playoff race. Due to their slow pace of play and high defensive efficiency, the rank first in the league in defensive efficiency. Tread lightly when selecting Pelicans in this tough matchup.

Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 44-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis

This is one of the few times this season that Davis will be a contrarian play. Due to the tough matchup, his ownership percentage could be his lowest of the season. Davis has the ability to fill up with the stat sheet in a variety of ways, so he doesn’t have to put in 25+ actual points to have a nice fantasy performance. Harden and James make for a safer stud to build your cash lineups around, but Davis could be an excellent contrarian GPP play.

Phoenix at Cleveland – 7:30 PM EST

Phoenix Cleveland
phoenixnba Vegas Total 212 clevelandnba Vegas Total 212
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 99.54 Team Pace 94.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Alex Len Proj Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 9 22 23 14 15 Opp. Season 15 24 25 9 21
Opp. Last 7 4 23 10 4 30 Opp. Last 7 6 25 18 19 22

Phoenix

The Suns are coming off of an impressive comeback win at the Nets on Friday night. The Suns were down by nine with under four minutes to play, but came back to win in overtime. The Suns will look to push the tempo at every opportunity and take advantage of the Cavs’ heavy workload lately. The Cavaliers are a below-average team defensively and the Suns are projected to eclipse 100 points.

Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 39-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Elite Plays

Brandan Wright

Alex Len left the game last night with a sprained ankle. If he is forced to miss any time, Wright would see an uptick in minutes. The Suns have shown in the past when Len missed games that they don’t want to play Wright for more than 25 minutes, but that should be plenty of time for him to pay of his minimum price. Taking Wright allows you to pay up for studs like Harden and James, which could be a viable strategy on Saturday night.

Marcus Morris

No, that is not a typo. I did not intend to have Marcus’ brother Markieff in this spot. Marcus made his way into the starting lineup due to a P.J. Tucker discipline issue and responded with 37+ FP’s in 41 minutes of action in the overtime win. While he’s unlikely to play 41 minutes again, he could draw another start and should easily exceed value if he gets 30+ minutes. He gives you some nice exposure to this high-scoring game at a discounted price.

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

After starting out slow with his new team, Knight has rebounded with two performances of at least 30 fantasy points. His price has risen slightly due to his recent production, but he is still underpriced for the matchup, especially on DraftKings. He will be guarded by either J.R. Smith or Kyrie Irving, neither of whom are above-average defenders.

Eric Bledsoe

Bledsoe and Knight seem to have gelled and Bledsoe’s production has benefitted from this newfound chemistry. He is always on triple-double alert, especially in fast-paced games like this one. The only reason he isn’t in the elite plays is his high price, especially on FanDuel.

Markieff Morris

The “better” of the twins has found his way to the secondary plays while the “lesser” brother sits in the elite plays. Markieff’s inconsistencies combined with his moderately high salary is why he finds himself here instead of the elite section. Morris has 40+ upside, but his floor is too low to trust him for cash games.

Cleveland

The Cavaliers lost to Atlanta for the second time this year and will look to respond with a win versus the uptempo Suns. The Cavs will be playing their fourth game in five games so tired legs could be an issue. The Suns are ranked third to last in points allowed per game and Vegas has the Cavs with the highest projected team total tonight at 111 points. All five Cavs starters are in play.

Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 33-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Elite Plays

LeBron James

“I sucked.” Those were Lebron’s words to describe his play last night in Atlanta. Elite players almost never have two bad games in a row, so I fully expect Lebron to rebound with an MVP-caliber performance. He is the best player playing in the game with the highest projected score. The high point spread will scare some away, but LeBron could hit value even if he only plays three quarters.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving

It will be interesting to see who guards who in the point guard and shooting guard matchups. It’s possible that the Suns will put the better defender in Brandon Knight on the more talented Irving, despite Knight playing the two guard. If so, this downgrades the matchup slightly for Irving, but he has shown the ability to go for 40 FP’s regardless of the matchup.

Kevin Love

Love is almost a must-play whenever Kyrie or LeBron are out of the lineup, but unfortunately he plays third fiddle when both are healthy. He always has the potential to go for a monster 20-20 type game, but he is too often featured as a three-point specialist in the Cavs offense. The uptempo game should allow him a few extra scoring and rebound opportunities, but his upside is likely capped at 40 FP’s.

Sacramento at Miami – 7:30 PM EST

Sacramento Miami
sacramentonba Vegas Total 204 miaminba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 97.76 Team Pace 92.66
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ray McCallum Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Udonis Haslem Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 12 9 4 4 8 Opp. Season 27 30 7 21 28
Opp. Last 7 22 7 5 17 9 Opp. Last 7 18 29 20 20 10

Sacramento

The Kings lost their fourth of five games last night despite scoring 114 points in Orlando. Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins both had standout performances, but the Kings’ defensive woes continued to rear its ugly head. The Heat have been one of the slowest teams all season, but have been looking to push the pace more recently with the acquisition of Goran Dragic. They could face an undermanned Heat squad tonight, so check the injury report before rosters lock.

Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 27-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins had his best game since returning from injury last night as he scored 29 points to go along with 12 rebounds and 3 blocks. Much like Anthony Davis, Cousins has the ability to hit double digit points from blocks and steals alone. Some will be concerned about Cousins getting into foul trouble against the aggressive Whiteside, but Cousins had more than 4 fouls only once in his last ten games.

Rudy Gay

Gay erupted for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks versus the Magic on Friday night (62+ DK FP’s). Gay faces off with a Heat team that could be without one their best wing defender in Luol Deng, who missed Friday night’s game due to injury. Gay’s low potential floor make him a risky cash game play, but he makes for an excellent tournament play.

Secondary Plays

Ray McCallum/Andre Miller

Head coach George Karl has made it clear that he will divide the point guard duties fairly evenly, with McCallum getting the slight edge in minutes. Due to the time-share, neither are likely to explode on a given night, but both have proven to be reliable sources of production due to consistent scoring from McCallum and assist totals from Miller. Neither are sexy picks, but both can give you 20+ FP’s for a cheap price.

Miami

There were crazy games on Friday night, but the Heat game might have been the wildest. The Heat were down 22 points at the end of the first, 28 points at halftime, and 35 points at one point in the third. They came all the way back before Michael Beasley let time expire before ultimately missing a jumper that would have tied the game. The Heat played without Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade, and Dragic was also injured on Friday night. If any are forced to miss time, then the entire Heat team will receive a usage boost.

Editor’s Note: Luol Deng and Goran Dragic are OUT.

Editor’s Note: Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade are game-time decisions.

Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 21-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Elite Plays

There is too many questionable players tonight to know who the elite plays are. If any combination of Dragic, Deng, and Wade are forced to miss, then Tyler Johnson and Henry Walker become potential elite plays in a nice matchup.

Secondary Plays

If everyone suits up for the Heat tonight, I still like Wade as a secondary play due to the Kings’ inability to guard shooting guards. Check the injury report closer to lock to see who is in tonight.

Indiana at New York – 7:30 PM EST

Indiana New York
indiananba Vegas Total 190 newyorknba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd -9.0 Vegas Sprd 9.0
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 90.2
Team Pace 95.61 Team Pace 93.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill C.J. Miles Solomon Hill David West Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Langston Galloway Tim Hardaway Jr. Cleanthony Early Louis Amundson Andrea Bargnani
Opp. Season 20 23 3 6 23 Opp. Season 10 25 5 2 12
Opp. Last 7 3 26 28 9 28 Opp. Last 7 2 3 27 2 16

Indiana

The Pacers are coming off of an impressive win versus the Bulls and are one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning eight of their last ten games. The Pacers are healthier than they have been all season, which limits the individual fantasy opportunities, as the production is split between too many players. The matchup with the Knicks is favorable, although a potential blowout is always in-play so tread with caution.

Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 12-48
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28

Elite Plays

George Hill

Hill only played 24 minutes last night due to some early foul trouble and a blowout late. He should have fresh legs on the second half of a back to back. In a matchup with the Knicks earlier in the week, he scored 21 points with 6 assists and 3 rebounds. If the game stays close, he should be in for a similar performance on Saturday night.

Secondary Plays

David West

Much like Hill, West had some foul trouble last night and also only played 24 minutes versus the Bulls. He should play close to 30 minutes and is always a double-double threat.

Rodney Stuckey

Stuckey has been “relegated” to the bench, but it’s a role that he has proven he can thrive in. He is instant offense with the second unit and is always a threat to catch fire. He has been playing 30+ minutes of late, which could be enough time to pay off his slightly elevated price tag.

New York

The Knicks own the proud distinction of the worst record in the NBA at 12-48. The only positive is that they haven’t played since Wednesday, so they should be well-rested compared to the Pacers. Carmelo Anthony’s extended absence has led to continued usage rates for almost everyone, but no one has been hotter for the Knicks than Andrea Bargnani. The matchup with the Pacers isn’t ideal as they are one of the slower-paced teams in the league.

Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 27-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7

Elite Plays

Andrea Bargnani

Bargnani has been on fire lately, scoring 30+ fantasy points in 3 of 5 games, including two 40+ FP performances in those games. While his price has come up, he is still underpriced given his recent production. He’ll do battle with David West and Roy Hibbert down low, which isn’t ideal, but Bargnani should be able to pay off his modest price tag.

Secondary Plays

Alexey Shved

Before only playing 16 minutes versus the Pacers, Shved had played at least 20 minutes in his previous three games. Knicks head coach Derek Fisher mentioned earlier in the week that he may have to rely on Shved due to inconsistent play from Hardaway Jr. and Galloway. Shved is too risky for cash games, but could make for a nice tournament play.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:30 PM EST

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantanba Vegas Total 192 philadelphianba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd -10.0 Vegas Sprd 10.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 91.0
Team Pace 96.24 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Isaiah Canaan Jason Richardson Jakarr Sampson Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Nerlens Noel
Opp. Season 26 29 14 29 30 Opp. Season 14 16 8 16 7
Opp. Last 7 27 30 1 12 7 Opp. Last 7 5 24 3 23 25

Atlanta

Atlanta has the best record in the NBA and takes on the team with the second-worst. The last time these two teams played, Atlanta took the opportunity to rest several of its starters. If they decide to do so again tonight, some near must-play opportunities could open up for the Hawks. Check back closer to lineup lock to see who is in and out for the Hawks.

Editor’s Note: Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver will rest tonight against the 76ers. They are all ruled OUT.

Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 13-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Elite Plays

Unless the Hawks decide to rest several of their starters, none of their options should be considered elite plays due to the blowout potential and their balanced attack.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague

Teague’s price has come down across all sites, but is especially playable on DraftKings for $6,600. He hasn’t shown the elite upside that other point guards have, but his consistency is impressive. On the season, he is average 34.3 DK FP’s a game, which would easily pay off his moderate price.

Paul Millsap/Al Horford

Millsap and Horford both make excellent plays due to the 76ers’ struggles versus big men. The 76ers rank last and second to last defending power forwards and centers, respectively. Due to the pricing differences, I like Millsap more on FanDuel and Horford more on DraftKings. All the Hawks starters are at risk of not playing a full allotment of minutes, but they could hit value even in limited action.

Editor’s Note: Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Korver will rest tonight against the 76ers. They are all ruled OUT.

Philadelphia

The Sixers might get to play against the Hawks “B” team, but will still likely be underdogs at home. The Hawks are an elite defensive team so there aren’t any standout options, even when facing the reserves.

Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 49-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Canaan/Ish Smith

Good luck figuring out which of these two point guards will go off on a given night. I would give a slight nod to Canaan due to more consistent playing time, but both have proven they can have monster games on a given night. Although the Hawks are an elite defensive team, they rank middle of the pack versus point guards for the season.

Jason Richardson

Richardson came crashing back down to earth in his last performance, going 0-10 in route to a 6 FP dud. The risk for single digit fantasy points is always there with a player like Richardson, but he has also shown his 40+ upside when he gets hot. He is nothing more than a GPP-special play in a questionable matchup, but feel free to roll the dice on Richardson and hope that he catches fire.

Editor’s Note: Jason Richardson will rest tonight against the Hawks, and has been ruled OUT.

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About the Author

ezellmt
Taylor Ezell (ezellmt)