NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 7th - Page Two
Portland at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -4, 199 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
| Portland | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.0 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.50 | Team Proj. | 97.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.54 | Team Pace | 97.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 27 | Opp. Season | 25 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
Portland
Portland will be adjusting life after Wesley Matthews as it was announced that he will be out for the rest of the season. The good news is that the team acquired Arron Afflalo at the trade deadline, and he should slide into the starting lineup. The Blazers are only favored by 4 points because the Timberwolves have been playing good basketball lately. The matchup is great from a fantasy perspective as Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 13-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Arron Afflalo
Afflalo will likely be one of the highest owned players tonight, and there are plenty of good reasons as to why this will be the case. Afflalo will likely slide into the starting lineup and should see at least 30 minutes of action in an uptempo game. He’ll be covered by Kevin Martin, who generally cares far more about his own scoring that playing any defense. His price is still indicative of a bench player, so he should easily hit value in this tasty matchup.
Nicolas Batum
Batum could be another player that benefits from Matthews’ absence. He has begun to find his shot lately and has always found a way to stuff the box score with points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. He has back to back 40+ FP games (on DK) and while his price has risen due to these performances, he is still a stellar play in a great matchup.
Robin Lopez
If I were breaking this out by site, Lopez would be an elite play on DraftKings and a secondary play on FanDuel. Lopez’ price on DraftKings is criminally low ($4,000) and makes for an excellent cheap play, which allows you to spend up elsewhere. Lopez is going to give you a monster game, but his high-floor in a favorable matchup makes him an excellent play.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard
It remains to be seen how Matthews’ absence will affect Lillard. The obvious benefit would be that some of the scoring would be shifted to Lillard, which makes sense. But in another aspect, it could hurt Lillard as he picked up several assists per night on Matthews’ three-pointers. Lillard and Ricky Rubio should go at one another tonight and Lillard could challenge for one of the highest scoring point guards tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Portland’s best player in such a great matchup. While the guards will directly benefit the most from Matthews being out, there will be a few shots to go around and LMA should pick up a few of them. The interior defense of Dieng and Pekovic isn’t terrible, but LMA should easily post a double-double with the potential for much more.
Minnesota
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 41-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.0 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Ricky Rubio
Rubio has been on a tear lately, posting 40+ FP’s in 6 of 8 games. He is always on triple-double alert and frequently benefits from the various bonuses offered by DraftKings. Portland’s halfcourt defense is stout so the Timberwolves will look to push the tempo, which could lead to fast break opportunities for Rubio.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins has become one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league this season, largely due to playing close to 40 minutes a night. He’ll be guarded by Batum, who is an excellent defender, but Wiggins can contribute in a variety of ways and should push for 30+ FP’s tonight.
Washington at Milwaukee – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -4, 188 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Pachulia
| Washington | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.00 | Vegas Sprd | -4.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92 | Team Proj. | 96 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.99 | Team Pace | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 22 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Season | 11 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 11 | 23 | 27 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | |
Washington
The Wizards nearly had an epic collapse versus the Heat last night, but held on to a narrow win. Marcin Gortat led the way and has played great lately. The matchup with Milwaukee is ugly from a fantasy perspective as both teams try to slow the pace and play defense. There aren’t too many standout options for the Wizards
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 32-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
John Wall
Wall makes for a decent play in a tough matchup. Although the Bucks rank highly against opposing point guards, most of this was due to the defense of the departed Brandon Knight. People have overblown the “John Wall is much better at home” narrative and Wall still averages 40 FP’s per game on the road this season.
Marcin Gortat
Gortat’s price has finally come up on FanDuel, so our days of plugging him in at $5,500 seem to be over. Fortunately, Gortat’s price tag is still at a playable level and makes for a nice play on a night where the center position seems weak. The interior defense of the Bucks is good, but Gortat should still challenge for a double-double with a few blocks thrown in as well.
Milwaukee
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 35-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Ersan Ilyasova
Ilyasova has always been a scary play due to Jason Kidd’s inconsistent rotations, but Ilyasova seems to have played himself into consistent playing time. He has been playing at least 30 minutes lately and has produced 30+ FP’s in three of four games. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Ilyasova should produce enough to meet his underpriced tag.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo
There aren’t many great options for the Bucks with such a tough matchup, but the “Greek Freak” appears to be a decent play due to his ability to do more than just score the basketball. His floor is extremely high and makes for a solid cash game play.
Houston at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -5, 210 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
| Houston | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5 | Vegas Sprd | 5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.91 | Team Pace | 98.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 22 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 4 | 26 | 29 | 21 | |
Houston
Led by MVP-candidate James Harden and the emergence of Terrence Jones, the Rockets are begging to click at both ends of the floor. Jones is questionable for tonight’s game, but I expect him to give it a go. The matchup with the Nuggets is prime, even in the mile-high air in the second of a back-to-back. The Nuggets rank in the bottom five for both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 22-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
James Harden
A high over/under with a close spread is a recipe for plenty of production for Harden, who is coming off of a triple-double last night. Arron Afflalo would have guarded him before he was traded, but now he’ll be guarded by a combination of Randy Foye and Will Barton, neither of whom should instill any fear in Harden. He’ll be highly owned and could easily be the high scorer for the night. Plug him in and enjoy the 50+ FPs (at least).
Terrence Jones
Jones has been stellar lately, consistently posting 35+ FPs during his hot stretch. The Nuggets have notoriously struggled versus opposing bigs, and this trend should continue on Saturday night. He is listed as questionable so keep an eye on his status, but I expect him to play.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Beverley
Like Jones, Beverley is also listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he goes, he’ll be a nice contrarian play in this high-scoring game. His price is the lowest it’s been all season, and is only $4,800 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. He could exceed 20+ FP’s and threaten for more if he’s able to play a full allotment of minutes.
Denver
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 42-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Danilo Gallinari
Gallinari’s price seems to be frozen (at least on FanDuel) despite posting consistent numbers over the past few weeks. He has become the number one scoring option for the Nuggets and should continue the trend versus the Rockets. There is always the worry of Gallinari’s low-floor if his shot isn’t falling, but his volume shooting has kept his consistency high.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried
Faried lived in Brian Shaw’s doghouse for too long, but seems to have been freed under the new coaching regime. He has posted three consecutive double-doubles and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fourth tonight. The scouting report on Faried has always been to play him at home, and now his minutes appear to be secure. Don’t be afraid to play both Faried and Jones in this tasty matchup.