NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Carroll-Valanciunas
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Whiteside
| Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185.5 |  | Vegas Total | 185.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.0 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | DeMarre Carroll | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | |
Toronto Raptors
Record: 56-26 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 7-3
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 90.0 (4 of 4)
With their backs against the wall, the Raptors picked up a much needed in Game 2. While it’s still not ideal for Toronto fans, they have to be happy with the series tied rather than being down 2-0 heading back to Miami. The Raptors are listed as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 3 and we shouldn’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire like the first two. Similar to the first round series, I am going to take a chance and fade Jonas Valanciunas on the road. His home/road splits so far in the postseasons have been drastic.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| DeMar DeRozan | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $7,300 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.77 | FP/Min: | 0.98 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.9 | 36.9 | 1.0 | 39.8 | 3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.3 | 28.3 | -7.0 | 31.5 | -3.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.0 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 26.4 | 0.4 |
DeRozan has not shot the ball well in the postseason, but that has been hidden by how poorly Kyle Lowry has played. Even though his shot hasn’t been falling, DeRozan has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each of the first two games in this series. He should see around 40 minutes of action tonight in Game 3.
Secondary Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,400 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.75 | FP/Min: | 1.05 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.1 | 2.1 | 39.5 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 29.4 | -9.1 | 27.7 | -10.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 19.5 | -3.4 | 17.7 | -5.1 |
Lowry has been very inconsistent in the postseason. To make matters worse, he is shooting a historically low percentage from the field. For what it’s worth, Lowry did hit two big shots in the fourth quarter of Game 2, so maybe he will come into tonight’s contest with a little extra confidence. He makes a great tournament play, as his ownership will still be low.
| DeMarre Carroll | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $4,300 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.53 | FP/Min: | 0.74 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.2 | 29.5 | -0.7 | 34.4 | 4.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.8 | 15.8 | -5.1 | 18.9 | -2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 11.4 | -4.3 | 10.7 | -5.0 |
Carroll has taken on a bigger role in this series. In the first two games, he has averaged 38 minutes and 28 fantasy points per game. At his price point, we would take another 28 fantasy point outing straight to the bank. Now that his minutes restriction has been lifted, he is a borderline elite play at small forward.
Miami Heat
Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.5 (3 of 4)
The Heat accomplished their goal in Toronto, picking up a split in the first two games of the series. They head back home with the advantage in the series and basically just need to defend their home floor and they can move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are listed as 5.5-point favorites with the third highest team total of the four teams in the Saturday slate.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Hassan Whiteside | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $7,700 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.11 | FP/Min: | 1.25 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 29.1 | 30.5 | 1.4 | 31.7 | 2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.8 | 33.9 | -1.9 | 32.5 | -3.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.1 | 12.9 | -3.1 | 12.0 | -4.1 |
Whiteside is my favorite center in this two game slate. I expect him to be the second or third most popular option too, so if he does return the best value, it will give you a major advantage over the rest of the field. He has played at least 39 minutes in each of the first two games and he returns home where he has put up some monster outings so far in the postseason.
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $7,800 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.10 | FP/Min: | 1.05 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.5 | 31.9 | 1.4 | 33.0 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 35.2 | 3.5 | 35.8 | 4.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.8 | 26.5 | -0.3 | 24.0 | -2.8 |
It was an interesting game for Wade in Toronto the other night. He seemed content taking a backseat on offense until late in the fourth quarter. I expect a much more aggressive Wade in Game 3, as the Heat can’t afford to lose their homecourt advantage. Wade should see a usage rate north of 30 in the next two games.
| Joe Johnson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $5,000 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.60 | FP/Min: | 0.69 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 34.7 | 1.3 | 37.2 | 3.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.2 | 20.8 | -1.4 | 22.2 | 0.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.6 | 13.8 | -1.7 | 15.8 | 0.2 |
After being the fourth or fifth option offensively in the first round series against the Hornets, the Heat must like Johnson’s matchup against the Raptors. He has taken 41 shots in the first two games. Anything north of 15 shot attempts and he is an absolute steal at this price point. Johnson is also a player that can contribute in other areas of the stat sheet.
Secondary Plays
| Goran Dragic | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,200 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.87 | FP/Min: | 0.94 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.8 | 31.2 | -1.6 | 35.0 | 2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.3 | 27.1 | -0.2 | 31.9 | 4.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 21.9 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 5.1 |
If you want a safe, steady source of fantasy production, Dragic is your guy. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in every game this postseason, with the exception of one against the Hornets. He has played well so far against Kyle Lowry and he makes a safe play in all league formats again tonight.
| Luol Deng | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,800 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.85 | FP/Min: | 0.76 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.4 | 34.5 | 2.1 | 34.2 | 1.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.2 | 29.4 | 5.3 | 27.4 | 3.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.0 | 16.6 | 1.6 | 14.2 | -0.8 |
It seems like Deng and Johnson have switched roles in this series. Deng has taken less than ten shots in each of the first two games, after he was their number two option offensively against the Hornets. He is still playing around 40 minutes per game though, which puts him in play in all league formats.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers – 9:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -3.5, 212 Over/Under
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Livingston-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Portland Trail Blazers Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Harkless-Plumlee
| Golden State Warriors | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.60 | Team Pace | 98.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Shaun Livingston | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Maurice Harkless | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 27 | Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 22 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 30 | Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | |
Golden State Warriors
Record: 73-9 — Road: 34-7 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.8 (1 of 4)
Let’s start with the question that everyone is asking – will Stephen Curry play in Game 3? According to Steve Kerr, there is only a “slight” chance that he will play and that he “probably” won’t be in the lineup. That’s clear-ish, right? It doesn’t sound like Curry is going to play and judging by the line, Vegas doesn’t expect him to. The Warriors are only 3.5-point favorites and even without Curry, they have the highest team total on the board. Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut are fine plays in their own right, but they are my fifth and sixth favorite options from the Warriors.
- Injury Watch:
Stephen Curry (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.19 | FP/Min: | 1.18 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.7 | 36.4 | 1.7 | 36.4 | 1.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 43.3 | 4.2 | 52.5 | 13.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 18.2 | 2.2 | 20.9 | 4.9 |
As long as Curry is ruled out, Green becomes a must play once again. I could go into a long breakdown of why, but basically he sees a minutes and usage boost with Curry out. He also becomes the main playmaker in the Warriors’ offense, which just so happens to be the best offense in basketball.
| Klay Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $9,100 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.05 | FP/Min: | 0.97 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.3 | 35.2 | 1.9 | 35.3 | 2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 36.8 | 5.9 | 39.1 | 8.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 24.5 | 2.2 | 25.7 | 3.4 |
We are going to have to make a difficult decision at shooting guard tonight. Thompson, Wade, and DeRozan are all priced similarly and they are all in decent spots. If we put price aside, I would rank them Thompson, Wade, and then DeRozan. The difference is very small though. All three are viable targets tonight.
| Shaun Livingston | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $5,700 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.94 | FP/Min: | 0.58 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 19.5 | 28.1 | 8.6 | 30.1 | 10.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 14.3 | 26.5 | 12.2 | 25.2 | 10.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 12.7 | 17.8 | 5.1 | 17.1 | 4.4 |
This pick obviously hinges on the availability of Stephen Curry. As long as he is ruled out, Livingston becomes close to a must play. He has been tremendous filling in for Curry and he should continue that stellar play tonight in Game 3 against the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
| Andre Iguodala | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $4,900 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.82 | FP/Min: | 0.71 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 26.6 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 27.9 | 1.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.5 | 23.4 | 4.9 | 22.2 | 3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.7 | 13.0 | 2.2 | 11.5 | 0.8 |
Hopefully someone listened when I said to play Iguodala over Barnes in Game 2. While his production has been inconsistent, he has a much higher ceiling than Barnes because he is playing backup point guard. They are running more plays through Iggy than they are Barnes. He is a borderline elite play again tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 44-38 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 7-3
- Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (2 of 4)
The Blazers had a perfect opportunity to steal a game from the Warriors, but they couldn’t buy a bucket in the fourth quarter. I don’t know the statistics on this, but I doubt many teams have won in the playoffs with their superstar being held scoreless in the fourth quarter (Damian Lillard in Game 2). I know that the Warriors have all the momentum, but I actually like the Blazers in this game. If they are going to pick up a win in this series, it will be tonight. C.J. McCollum is going to be the forgotten man at shooting guard. He makes a nice GPP play, as his ownership will be depressed thanks to the other options at the position.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Damian Lillard | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $9,200 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.94 | FP/Min: | 1.10 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.7 | 38.8 | 3.1 | 39.9 | 4.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.4 | 36.6 | -2.8 | 43.1 | 3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.6 | 25.1 | -2.5 | 27.2 | -0.3 |
Lillard had an amazing third quarter in Game 2, but ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. The Blazers will need four quarters of domination from him tonight and I think they get it. Lillard has been tremendous against the Warriors this season. I am starting all of my lineups with Lillard at the top.
| Al-Farouq Aminu | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $5,500 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.83 | FP/Min: | 0.76 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 28.5 | 31.8 | 3.3 | 31.5 | 3.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.5 | 26.3 | 4.8 | 20.3 | -1.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.3 | 16.9 | 2.6 | 15.0 | 0.7 |
Aminu was moved to power forward on FanDuel, which actually helps because there are a number of viable small forward plays in this slate. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle in what is essentially a must win game for the Blazers at home.
Secondary Plays
| Mason Plumlee | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $6,400 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.12 | FP/Min: | 0.93 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.4 | 28.7 | 3.3 | 28.3 | 2.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.3 | 32.1 | 7.8 | 27.9 | 3.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.2 | 12.9 | -1.2 | 12.7 | -1.5 |
I’m not giving up on Plumlee just yet. He is averaging around 0.90 fantasy points per minute in this series and he has yet to play well. In fact, he has been pretty awful. His is a combined 2-for-13 from the field and he has eight turnovers. If he can just play a little bit better, he will easily reach and exceed value at his price point. He is my second favorite center play in this slate.
| Maurice Harkless | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $4,700 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.75 | FP/Min: | 0.53 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 18.7 | 28.5 | 9.8 | 28.4 | 9.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 13.3 | 21.5 | 8.2 | 19.0 | 5.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 13.3 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 18.8 | 5.5 |
Harkless is only averaging 28 minutes in the first two games, but he played some great defense on Klay Thompson before getting into foul trouble. If he can keep his hands out of the cookie jar tonight, he could see around 35 minutes. He is right there with Andre Iguodala as the top small forward target.