NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 9th: Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-11-09 19:20:44

L.A.Clippers at Houston

L.A.Clippers							Houston
			Vegas Pts							Vegas
			Spread							Spread
			Pace		100.67					Pace		97.51
Opponent Defense vs. Position							Opponent Defense vs. Position
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Season	15	12	6	10	7		Season	21	22	8	13	28
Last10	15	12	6	10	7		Last10	21	22	8	13	28
Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan							Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Asik-Howard

L.A.Clippers

The first time these two teams met, the Clippers put up 137 points and CP3 went over 50 FP’s. The Clippers are the highest scoring team in the league at 110 points per game. Vegas has this as the highest scoring game of the night with a total of 213. The matchup looks great for both teams.

The Rockets DvP rankings are a bit misleading. They rank in the top 15 against every single position, yet they are giving up 103 points per game. The numbers just don’t add up to me. Treat the Clippers as having a very favorable matchup and ignore those DvP rankings.

Players to Target

• Chris Paul – One of my favorite new stats is touches per game and CP3 leads the league with 105 touches per game. That means he touches the ball on average at least once on every single possession that the Clippers have the entire game. If the Clippers are playing well, CP3 is going to have his hand in it, literally. Expect another big game from the early season MVP.

• DeAndre Jordan – The fact that Jordan has become a consistent fantasy option still gives me the shivers. I never thought that it would be possible. But he’s scored at least 22 FP’s in every game this season and has topped 40 minutes 3 times already this season. I love the fact that he is seeing that many minutes.

Houston

The Rockets could be without James Harden tonight as he is a game-time decision with a hurt foot. If he can’t go, it really hurts the Rockets chances of winning the game, but it would open the door for quite a few fantasy options. If we get word that Harden can’t go, give a bump to Chandler Parsons, Patrick Beverley, Dwight Howard, and Omri Casspi, probably in that order.

Players to Target

• Chandler Parsons – This game is tough to breakdown because everything changes depending on if Harden plays or not. But the one option that I like regardless is Parsons. He’s always going to see 35+ minutes and if you take him on sites that lock your entire rosters, you could get an added bonus if Harden doesn’t end up playing.

Golden State at Memphis

Golden State							Memphis
			Vegas Pts		207.0					Vegas		207.0
			Spread		4.5					Spread
			Pace		102.79					Pace		96.98
Opponent Defense vs. Position							Opponent Defense vs. Position
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Season	1	11	12	11	11		Season	23	15	10	16	13
Last10	1	11	12	11	11		Last10	23	15	10	16	13
Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut							Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Golden State

This game features a contrast in styles of play. The Warriors love to push the ball and win with their offense. The Grizzlies try to slow the ball down and win with their defense. My philosophy in these games is to downgrade the uptempo team’s fantasy value and upgrade the slower paced teams fantasy value. The reason is that the Warriors will see less possessions than they are used to and the Grizzlies will see more possessions than they are used to.

One thing to keep in mind is the injury to Stephen Curry, he sat out last night’s game and is questionable for tonight. I would guess that they will keep him out one more game as they don’t play again until Tuesday and sitting him out would give him a few extra days of rest. However, I am not a doctor so monitor the status reports as the day goes on. If he sits out, find a way to get Toney Douglas in your lineups.

Players to Target

• David Lee – Even though the Grizzlies are very good defensively, Lee played well against them last season averaging 18 and 8 and was actually going up against Marc Gasol in the majority of those games. Tonight he will be locked up with Zach Randolph who just isn’t a great defender.

Memphis

Like I mentioned earlier, give a bump to the Grizzlies tonight because they should get a few extra possessions and they are facing a bad defense. The Warriors don’t have a single DvP ranking in the top 10 and I think there are a few different ways you can approach this game.

Players to Target

• Mike Conley – Conley seems to be the same player every single year and he often flies under the radar because he plays is Memphis. On the season he is averaging 20 points and 5 assists and should be able to find success against either Douglas or Curry. I think Conley picks up his assists total tonight and we could see a nice 18 and 10 game out of him.

Dallas at Milwaukee

Dallas							Milwaukee
			Vegas Pts		209.0					Vegas		209.0
			Spread		4.0					Spread
			Pace		102.51					Pace		94.51
Opponent Defense vs. Position							Opponent Defense vs. Position
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Season	9	8	27	5	18		Season	26	16	16	14	21
Last10	9	8	27	5	18		Last10	26	16	16	14	21
Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert							Knight-Mayo-Butler-Ilyasova-Sanders

Dallas

The Mavs are at the very top of the league in both pace (102) and points scored per game (109). They are pushing the tempo and really putting pressure on the defenses in transition. A lot of that has to do with their acquisition of Monta Ellis. While Monta isn’t my favorite player to take in H2H and 50/50 leagues due to his huge swings in fantasy production, he always makes a great GPP play.

The matchup against the Bucks isn’t great as the Bucks are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, but I think that the Bucks will fall into the trap of playing towards the Mavs style.

Players to Target

• Jose Calderon – Calderon is still finding his place in this offense and often has to defer to Monta Ellis because he needs the ball in his hands so much. However, Calderon is averaging over 25 FP’s in his last 4 games and his price is very affordable across the board. He’s a play that most people won’t think to use, so take advantage of that and get an edge on your competition.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are playing at a slow pace (94) and are in the bottom half of the league in points scored per game (97). They have an excellent matchup tonight though and Vegas expects this game to be very high scoring. Right now the Bucks are dealing with quite a few injuries so monitor the injury news throughout the day and look for some nice plug and play options like Henson and Pachulia if either of them get the start.

Players to Target

Nate Wolters – Wolters will likely draw another start tonight and he’s been on of the very few bright spots on this team this season. He’s averaging over 30 minutes per game and has put up 25+ FP’s in each of his last 3 starts. His price has yet to react to his production, so keep taking him as a top value play. Especially against this Mavs defense.

Portland at Sacramento

Portland							Sacramento
			Vegas Pts		203.0					Vegas		203.0
			Spread		-7.5					Spread		7.5
			Pace		97.49					Pace		94.25
Opponent Defense vs. Position							Opponent Defense vs. Position
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Season	27	10	2	21	25		Season	29	20	7	20	9
Last10	27	10	2	21	25		Last10	29	20	7	20	9
Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez							Vasquez-Thornton-Salmons-Patterson-Cousins

Portland

The Blazers and Kings played last night in Portland and now travel to Sacramento to play again tonight. I’m not exactly sure the reasoning why the NBA does this, but it gives us a nice preview of what the game should look like. Both Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum flirted with triple-doubles last night and it was proof that everyone is in play against the lousy defense of the Kings. LaMarcus Aldridge was held in check most of the night, but had a big 4th quarter and I could see him carrying that over into tonight’s game.

Players to Target

• Damian Lillard – I love Lillard for his price. He is always a bit cheaper than the other top PG options, but he has just as much upside and really makes a great play on sites that don’t negate for missed shots. Last night Lillard put up 22, 7, and 8 and I don’t see any reason why he can’t do it again tonight. The Kings have been awful against PG’s.

Sacramento

The Kings played well last night, but ended up falling short. I expect tonight’s game to be another high scoring affair and even though I usually caution against taking DeMarcus Cousins, you might have to take him after the game he had last night against Lopez and the Blazers. Cousins put up 35 points and 9 rebounds. I always love him in GPP’s, but in his 5 games this season, Cousins has put up 40+ FP’s in three of them and 20 or less in the other two. There just isn’t a middle ground.

Players to Target

• Isaiah Thomas – Thomas has been far and away their most consistent fantasy player this season. He’s scored over 20 FP’s in every game this season and is averaging over 30 FP’s at home. Even though he doesn’t start the game, he is going to see his 30 minutes and make things happen.

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