NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 16th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Charlotte at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -5.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Henson-Pachulia
Charlotte
The Bobcats have a nice matchup today against the Bucks who are giving up 102.7 points per game and have given up at least 112 points in 5 of their last 8 games. The Bucks have all but given up defensively as they are ranked 18th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. Brandon Knight has done a decent job at slowing down opposing PG’s though as the Bucks are ranked 10th in that category.
- Al Jefferson – With Kemba Walker having the toughest matchup on the team, Jefferson is the play here. The Bucks have had one of the worst interior defenses all season long and are the 6th worst rebounding team to boot. Jefferson has played so well for so long that you are going to have to pay a hefty price for him, but he should be worth it against the Bucks.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have a tough matchup today against the Bobcats, but Ersan Ilyasova is going to miss the game so fire up the John Henson and Jeff Adrien bandwagons. Henson will draw the start and likely see more minutes, but you can’t argue with Adrien’s FP/minute production off the bench. Both of them are in play today even though the Bobcats have defended the PF position well.
The rest of the Bucks will all be stuck in tough matchups. The Bobcats are holding their opponents to 97.2 points per game and are ranked 18th or better over the last 15 days against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. This is a decent matchup for Brandon Knight, but he just hasn’t had that same upside that we’ve seen from him earlier in the season.
Phoenix at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5, 203 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Phoenix
The Suns are 5 point underdogs today against the Raptors who have been one of the better stories in the NBA this season. The Raptors are fighting for home court advantage in the playoff and they have gotten this far by playing solid defense. The Raptors are holding their opponents to 96.8 points per game which is the 4th fewest in the NBA.
Even though this game has a total of 203 points, the Suns are only projected to score 99 points which is 6 points less than their season average. The Raptors are ranked 12th or better against all positions this season in terms of fantasy points allowed and have not chinks in their defensive armor. Eric Bledsoe could make a nice GPP play, but the rest of the Suns are less than appealing fantasy options.
Toronto
The Raptors continue to play some great basketball and have a favorable matchup tonight against the uptempo Suns. The Suns are averaging 98 possessions per game which should help speed up the pace of play in this one. Considering the fast pace of play, the Suns defense has actually been pretty solid this season. They are giving up 102.8 points per game but are ranked 15th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and Centers.
- Kyle Lowry – Lowry has an incredibly high ceiling thanks to his ability to post triple-double type of stat lines. He is a great rebounder for a PG and can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Lowry is coming off of a 50+ FP game against the tough Grizzlies defense and now has a much more favorable matchup against the Suns who are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season.
- Amir Johnson – Patrick Patterson is still not able to return to the lineup so look for Johnson to continue to see extended playing time. Johnson has played at least 32 minutes in each of the last 4 games and is averaging close to 30 FP’s per game during that stretch. The Suns have struggled against PF’s this season and Johnson makes a great mid-range option at PF tonight.
Houston at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -5, 209 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Houston
The Rockets are 5 point underdogs tonight against the Heat and are looking to bounce back after getting blown out by the Thunder and the Bulls in their last two games. Typically against the Heat you want to avoid taking PG’s and wing players because they are ranked 4th or better against those positions. While James Harden can have a good game against anyone, I don’t think you need to pay up for him tonight against the Heat.
- Dwight Howard – Howard has scored under 40 FP’s in 5 straight games and has looked a lot like the Dwight that we’ve seen a lot of recently. He just seems to check out of games when he is not involved offensively. Hopefully the Rockets will read the scouting report and know that to beat the Heat, you have to do it with a talented big man. The Heat are ranked 25th against Centers this season and are the second worst rebounding team in the league.
Miami
The Heat have a nice matchup tonight against the Rockets, but the Heat have been void of fantasy options lately. LeBron James seems to have gone back into his coast mode, Chris Bosh will have his hands full with Dwight, and the role players of the Heat can never really be counted on to give you consistent fantasy production. The only play that I recommend here is Dwyane Wade. He is always a game-time decision, but I don’t see any reason why he won’t play tonight. He has topped 30 FP’s in 8 of his last 10 games and is much cheaper than LeBron.
Boston at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -5.5, 196 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Humphries-Bass
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca
Boston
The Celtics are 5.5 point underdogs on the road against the Pelicans tonight. The Pelicans are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, but are giving up 102 points per game. While this should be played at a fairly slow pace, the Celtics shouldn’t have a problem scoring the ball. The Pelicans are ranked 6th and 11th against SG’s and SF’s, but are 20th or worse against the other 3 positions.
- Rajon Rondo – The Celtics didn’t play yesterday and they don’t play tomorrow which means there is no doubt for Rondo’s status tonight against the Pelicans. He has an excellent matchup against Roberts and Pelicans who have not defended the PG position well this season. Rondo has had back to back subpar performances, but should be able to get it going tonight.
- Kris Humphries – Consistency and the Celtics bigs have not got along this season, but Hump has probably been the most consistent big when he has been given starter’s minutes. Hump has scored over 26 FP’s in 4 straight games and has played over 25 minutes in 4 of his last 5.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have a decent matchup against the Celtics tonight. The C’s are holding their opponents to under 100 points per game, but have really only defended two positions well in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Pelicans are ranked 18th or worse against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers over the last 15 days. Tyreke Evans has been on fire ever since joining the starting lineup and should be targeted in ALL leagues tonight.
- Anthony Davis – Continuing with the fire theme, there isn’t a hotter play in the NBA than Davis. He has topped 50 FP’s in 5 straight games and is coming off of a career high 36 points the other night. His price has gone up across the industry, but it’s hard to fade him at this point. There are 4 stars on the schedule tonight and here’s how I’m ranking them: Durant, Davis, Love, and then LeBron.
Sacramento at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -8, 213 Over Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Sacramento
The Kings and Wolves game has the 2nd highest total of the night at 213 points. Both of these teams like to push the pace as they are both averaging at least 96 possessions per game. This is a nice matchup for the Kings, but that’s if, and only if, they can keep this game close. Their last 5 losses have been by an average of more than 10 points.
DeMarcus Cousins is an interesting play tonight. The Wolves have been good at defending the Center position this season and Cousins has awful career splits against the Wolves. That said, he did have 21 points and 17 rebounds in their last meeting and that was with Pekovic in the lineup. Most people will likely avoid Cousins tonight, but I actually like his upside.
- Isaiah Thomas – IT2 is as close to a lock for 30+ FP’s in his price range as you are going to find. IT2 had 22 points and 8 assists in their last meeting and should play well again tonight. The Wolves have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.
Minnesota
The Wolves have a great matchup at home against the Kings. The Kings are giving up 103.5 points per game which is the 5th most in the NBA. The Kings have done a decent job of defending bigs recently. Cousins is always a tough customer and the Kings’ interior defense really improves when Reggie Evans is on the floor. With the Wolves big front-court, Evans will likely draw the start at PF.
It’s hard to not like Kevin Love in this matchup, but Evans should at least be able to be physical with him. For the price, I’d much rather have Anthony Davis against the Celtics. Ricky Rubio is a decent PG option, but he hasn’t had that high ceiling that he had earlier in the season. He’s only posted double-digit points in 3 of his last 9 games.
- Kevin Martin – Martin has topped 22 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and has a great matchup against the Kings who have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to opposing SG’s. SG can be a tricky position to fill and Martin provides a high floor at a reasonable price.