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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, May 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-02 12:56:15

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 1:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 191.0 miaminba Vegas Total 191.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Al Jefferson Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8 Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26 Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets had a golden opportunity to close out the series at home on Friday night, but they were unable to close door. They now have to head back to Miami for Game 7. As an NBA, I’m certainly not complaining. There is nothing better than a Game 7. The Hornets are listed as 6.5-point underdogs on the road, but they should feel confident knowing that they have already beat the Heat on their home floor. From a fantasy perspective, this is not a great spot for Charlotte. They have the second lowest team total on the board at 92.3 points. Nicolas Batum hurt his foot in Game 6 and was unable to return to the game. His status for Sunday is up in the air.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$8,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.0 -2.6 30.4 -5.2
FPPG (FD) 36.0 33.8 -2.1 33.0 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 23.1 0.0 22.7 -0.4

If this game was being playing in Charlotte, Walker would be an elite play in all league formats. His home/road splits in his career are drastically different and that has been the case in this series too. He is averaging 44 fantasy points per game at home and 29 fantasy points per game on the road. He is more of a GPP play in Game 7.

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 22.5 -0.8 23.6 0.3
FPPG (FD) 24.1 28.2 4.0 30.8 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 22.9 1.8 24.4 3.3

Jefferson hadn’t been playing in the fourth quarters, but he did in Game 6. He finished with 30 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. He has basically been a fantasy point per minute guy in this series and if we can project him to play 28-30 minutes, he could easily reach and exceed value again. Jefferson is a sneaky target for tournaments.

Miami Heat

The Heat kept their season alive, thanks to a huge fourth quarter from Dwyane Wade. He made some terrific plays on both ends of the floor and was able to push this series to a winner-take-all Game 7. The Heat are listed as 6.5-point favorite at home with an implied team total of 98.8 points. Their total may not seem high, but they actually have the second highest projected point differential on the board.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$8,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Wade was close to a must play for me in Game 6. With the Heat in a must win situation, I expected him to take over offensively. He did just that, scoring 44 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle again in Game 7. He is the top shooting guard target in this slate.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Deng has been one of the most consistent sources of fantasy production in the first round. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in every game this series and he is coming off of a 32 fantasy point outing in Game 6. Deng should see 35+ minutes in this one and he deserves to be considered as a top power forward target with Draymond Green and Myles Turner.

Secondary Plays

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 32.4 -1.0 32.0 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 22.2 21.7 -0.4 23.3 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.6 1.1 18.4 2.9

Johnson is one of the most frustrating players in DFS. He is right up there with Jeff Green on the tilt-meter. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in three games in this series and he has scored 16 fantasy points or less in the other three games. This feels like a game where he should play well, but I just can’t list him as an elite play.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 3:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors
portlandnba Vegas Total 211.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Shaun Livingston Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers may have benefitted from a couple of injuries to the Clippers, but at the end of the day, they did what they had to do to move on to the second round. They now get to face a Warriors’ team that may be without Stephen Curry for the entire series. Most people aren’t giving the Blazers much of a chance, but if they can steal a game on the road, this series would become very interesting. The Blazers are listed as 8-point underdogs in Game 1. They are projected to score 101.5 points, which gives them the third highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board. C.J. McCollum may be worth a look moving forward, but Dwyane Wade and Klay Thompson are stronger plays at just a slightly higher price point.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$8,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

Lillard had an up and down series against the Clippers, but should benefit from an uptempo series against the Warriors. Even though Curry played in their meetings earlier this season, it’s worth pointing out Lillard’s success in this matchup. He scored 64, 75, 29, and 46 fantasy points in their four meetings. He is my favorite point guard target in this slate.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

During the regular season, most of us kept screaming at Terry Stotts to play Plumdog Millionaire more minutes. Despite averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute, he rarely cracked the 25 minute mark. Those days are behind us now though, as Plumlee played at least 31 minutes in each of the last five games against the Clippers. You could argue that he was the best player in that series. We typically don’t like targeting bigs against the Warriors, but Plumlee is an exception. He is an athletic big that can run the floor and make great passes. The style of shouldn’t hinder his fantasy production.

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

Aminu had himself a terrific series in the first round against the Clippers. He will look to carry that momentum over into this series. He has never been a great scorer, but he should benefit from an uptempo style of play. He is a great defender and he can knock down open jumpers, as well as attack the rim in transition.

Maurice Harkless
moe-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.7 27.7 9.0 28.0 9.3
FPPG (FD) 13.3 25.2 11.9 26.0 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.4 2.2 17.1 3.8

In the Clippers’ series, Harkless was slightly outplayed by Aminu. I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Harkless has the better series against the Warriors. He is a bit more athletic than Aminu and he should see similar minutes. Harkless is also considerably cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were able to take down the Rockets in five games, but it didn’t come without a price. After Stephen Curry injured his ankle, he then slipped on the floor and hurt his knee. His original timeline was two weeks, which puts him on track to return on May 9th. If that’s the case, that would allow him to return for Game 4 in Portland. The Warriors are going to have to pick up the slack without him, but that’s something that they were able to do against the Rockets. The Warriors are listed as 8-point favorites in Game 1. Even without Curry, they have the highest team total on the board at 109.5 points.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$10,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 35.8 1.1 34.2 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 41.0 1.9 34.1 -5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.5 -0.5 14.8 -1.2

When Stephen Curry is out, I just pencil Green in as my power forward. He becomes a focal point of the offense and they like to run a lot of plays through him as the primary playmaker. He draws a terrific matchup in this series against a Blazers’ defense that was ranked 22nd against power forwards during the regular season.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$8,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.5 2.2 34.8 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 29.2 -1.7 28.8 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 20.3 -2.0 18.9 -3.4

Thompson is another player that sees a major boost when Stephen Curry is out of the lineup (to be fair, the entire team sees a boost). Thompson’s usage rate is much higher when Curry is not on the floor. Even though his peripheral statistics don’t really change, he is much more of a threat offensively. He could average 25 shots a game in this series.

Shaun Livingston
shaun-livingston-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.5 21.1 1.6 20.1 0.6
FPPG (FD) 14.3 16.8 2.4 17.2 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 12.7 12.7 0.0 13.0 0.3

With a lack of value in this slate, Livingston will be the most popular player at any position. He is a must play in cash games and there really isn’t a reason to fade him in tournaments either. He should easily reach and exceed value at his price tag. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last four games.

Secondary Plays

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 24.7 -1.9 24.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 18.5 12.9 -5.6 12.9 -5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 8.2 -2.6 8.2 -2.6

Iguodala may still come off the bench, but he is basically the Warriors’ backup point guard when Stephen Curry is out. He is a great playmaker and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. For whatever reason, he can’t seem to hit a free throw, but we will let that slide. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Andrew Bogut
andrew-bogut-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$3,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.7 20.3 -0.4 23.8 3.1
FPPG (FD) 20.2 16.8 -3.3 23.0 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 9.5 7.3 -2.1 7.5 -1.9

If you want to fade Plumlee in tournaments, Bogut is a viable option at center. He may not see more than 25 minutes of action, but he is a player capable of averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. He draws a nice matchup against the Blazers, who were ranked 27th against centers during the regular season.

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Toronto Raptors
indiananba Vegas Total 190.5 torontonba Vegas Total 190.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 9 12 5 8 15
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 9 21 4 8 18

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers picked up a win in Game 6 to force a winner-take-all Game 7 in Toronto. How spoiled are we to have two Game 7’s in the the same day? While the Pacers would rather be playing at home, they have already beat the Raptors once on their home floor and they almost did it again in Game 5. Indiana is listed as a 6.5-point underdog with an implied team total of only 92 points.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$10,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 31.2 -3.6 27.6 -7.2
FPPG (FD) 39.1 37.0 -2.1 31.2 -7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 23.6 -1.6 23.0 -2.2

George is a terrific play in all league formats in this Game 7 against the Raptors. While playing on the road isn’t ideal for role players, teams generally lean on their superstars in playoff road games. George has scored 63 and 47 fantasy points in the last two games in this series. He should see 40+ minutes again in this winner-take-all Game 7.

Myles Turner
myles-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 21.1 -1.7 18.9 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 20.6 18.9 -1.7 19.9 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 16.5 -0.7 18.2 1.0

Turner had fantasy owners worried after putting up a goose egg in the first quarter of Friday night’s game. He bounced back in a big way though, scoring 33 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. It looks like the Pacers are trusting their rookie in crunch time, which allows us to project him for 32-35 minutes in this game.

Secondary Plays

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.1 29.3 -4.8 30.5 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 23.3 19.0 -4.2 23.3 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 13.0 -1.0 13.7 -0.3

If you need a cheap point guard, you could certainly do worse than Hill. He was nowhere to be found in the first two games of the series, but he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of the last four games. He is a low-risk, medium-reward target at point guard.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were unable to end the series in Game 6, but they still have homecourt advantage in their back pocket. They are currently listed as 6.5-point favorites in Game 7 and you know the Air Canada Centre is going to be rocking. The Raptors are projected to score 98.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential in the slate. Kyle Lowry is really the only Raptors’ player on my target in this game. The rest of the team has been too inconsistent game-to-game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 35.0 -2.0 30.8 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.0 -9.5 28.5 -10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.8 -0.1 23.0 0.1

Lowry’s price has come down across the industry. While I don’t see him as a cash game target, he is one of my favorite GPP plays in this slate. His ownership will be low and the Raptors’ season hopes and dreams are on the line. He should play 40+ minutes and he has shown that he has 40 fantasy point type of upside in this matchup.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious