NBA Grind Down: Sunday, May 21st

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 215.0 Article Image Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 16.0 Vegas Spread -16.0
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM 0.45 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

I couldn’t have been more wrong about Game 2 in this series. The Celtics were only listed as five point underdogs and they were playing at home in what was essentially a must win. I’m not sure if the Cavaliers are this good or if the Celtics have just had two of their worst games of the season. Either way, a sweep is very possible at this point, with both of the next two games being played in Cleveland. The Celtics are listed as 16-point underdogs heading into Game 3 and rightly so. They have not shown an ability to compete with Cleveland in this series and will be missing their star point guard.

Isaiah Thomas has apparently been dealing with a hip injury since Game 6 of the second round against the Wizards. It would have been nice of the Celtics to let us know, but it doesn’t matter at this point. Thomas aggravated the injury in Game 2 and has been ruled out for the remainder of the postseason. Marcus Smart is expected to draw the start at point guard and should see a nice boost in both playing time and in usage rate. With Smart in the starting lineup, it could open up a few more minutes on the wing. Look for Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, and Gerald Green to all see a bump in playing time in Game 3.

Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder have both had some success in this series, but they aren’t going to see a full complement of minutes if the Celtics are down by 30 points again. I would lock both into my lineups if I knew the game would stay close, but that’s far from a guarantee at this point. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Jaylen Brown, who is only $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings. Sure, he has benefited from blowouts in Games 1 and 2, but he should see 20 minutes even if this game stays close. You also have the added equity if the game turns into a blowout. The same goes for Rozier and the rest of the bench crew.

Al Horford has really struggled to get going offensively in this series. Tristan Thompson is an excellent defender, but Horford should be putting up better numbers than this. In fact, you could say that about a few different players from Boston. Horford’s price is all the way down to $6,800 on DraftKings, but he has the same problem as the rest of the Celtics’ starters – if the game turns into a blowout, his minutes are going to be limited. The Celtics also won’t be able to run their pick and roll as effectively without Thomas, which could also hurt Horford in Game 3. For now, consider him a low owned GPP flier.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,100 0.80 30.4 -0.8 24.2 0.0 20.7% -3.2% 23 -2.16
Avery Bradley $6,500 $5,900 0.84 33.4 2.0 28.1 -2.2 21.5% -1.8% 29 -0.77
Jae Crowder $6,300 $6,100 0.79 32.4 0.7 25.7 0.9 16.9% 0.2% 26 1.57
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,400 0.82 20.1 -9.1 16.5 -9.5 14.3% 1.3% 9 1.93
Al Horford $8,000 $6,800 1.00 32.3 1.9 32.2 3.6 21.6% -3.3% 17 0.95
Terry Rozier $2,300 $2,700 0.74 17.1 -0.8 12.7 0.3 18.2% -1.7% 23 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,800 $4,400 0.90 20.5 -0.9 18.5 0.1 19.5% 0.7% 17 N/A
Jaylen Brown $2,100 $3,000 0.67 17.2 -6.4 11.5 -4.5 17.4% -0.3% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford (DK), Gerald Green, Kelly Olynyk


Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers had some trouble with the Pacers in the first round, but have been an unstoppable force since. They have won the first two games of this series by a combined 57 points and they were both in Boston. They now return home for a chance to sweep the series and head to yet another championship for LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 16-point favorites in Game 3 and have an implied point total of 115.5 points, which is easily the highest in the slate.

We can make a case for four different Cavaliers’ players in this spot. I generally don’t like to wrap so much of the salary cap on one team, but this offense has been on a tear. If LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, and Tristan Thompson see a full complement of minutes, they would all have a good chance of reaching value. Cleveland has been able to get whatever they have wanted so far in this series and it doesn’t seem like that is going to change in Game 3 at home.

LeBron James is on his own stratosphere right now. It’s LeBron way up top and then it is everyone else. He looks unstoppable right now and I will continue treating him close to a must play in all formats. When you are basically guaranteed to score 55 fantasy points every game, you take those points and build the rest of the roster around him. Love has also been tremendous in this series and should continue to dominate the glass. Irving is more of a GPP, but again, I like pairing LeBron with Irving in tournaments to get some differentiation in your lineups. Thompson had a huge Game 1 and then basically forgot to show up in Game 2. I wouldn’t mind fading Thompson if we had viable alternatives, but both centers in the Warriors/Spurs series are off my radar and Al Horford hasn’t been able to get going in this series.

The only concern with the Cavaliers is the potential blowout, but we can say the same for Game 4 of the Warriors/Spurs series, so I’m not going to factor that into my decision-making when building lineups.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,800 $8,500 1.09 35.1 -0.8 38.2 -0.5 32.0% 2.7% 18 0.45
J.R. Smith $3,300 $3,300 0.56 29.0 -3.1 16.2 -5.2 14.4% -3.6% 11 -1.13
LeBron James $12,500 $12,600 1.30 37.8 4.6 49.3 9.4 32.9% 1.1% 13 -1.56
Kevin Love $7,500 $7,500 1.14 31.4 -0.1 35.8 -9.2 25.2% -5.8% 24 1.37
Tristan Thompson $5,100 $5,400 0.77 30.0 2.7 23.0 0.8 11.0% -0.4% 21 1.59
Kyle Korver $3,500 $3,200 0.63 26.2 -6.7 16.5 -3.0 15.1% -1.5% 11 N/A
Channing Frye $3,500 $3,100 0.83 18.9 -4.6 15.8 -1.7 18.1% -1.6% 24 N/A
Deron Williams $2,500 $2,900 0.82 25.9 -9.9 21.2 -9.0 24.7% -3.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Kyrie Irving (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), J.R. Smith (FD)


Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – Monday, 9:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 216.5 Article Image Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread -10.0 Vegas Spread 10.0
Team Total 113.3 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Jonathon Simmons LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.07 2.10 1.37 1.25 1.43 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

The Spurs put up a good fight in Game 3, but the Warriors’ offense was too much to handle yet again. The Warriors are now one win away from their third straight NBA Finals appearance. They have yet to lose a game in the postseason and they will want to take care of business in Game 4. The line for the game is currently set at ten points with an over/under of 216.5. If we read between the lines, it doesn’t seem like Vegas expects Kawhi Leonard (questionable) to play. He will likely be a game-time decision, but at this point we should consider him closer to doubtful than probable.

Stephen Curry has been unstoppable in this series, scoring 56, 52, and 39 fantasy points. The Spurs don’t have an answer for him in transition or in a half-court setting. When he is knocking down those deep three-pointers, it opens up lanes that he has taken full advantage of in this series. With Isaiah Thomas out and Kyrie Irving playing in a potential blowout, Curry is the premier play at point guard in this slate. Klay Thompson has only scored more than 27 fantasy points one time in his last ten games. He continues to be an easy fade at shooting guard.

Kevin Durant is coming off of a great performance in Game 3. If Kawhi Leonard is ruled out again, the Spurs don’t have anyone that can match up with him. Granted, he made some extremely difficult shots last game, but that’s something we are accustomed to with Durant. I still have LeBron James as my top small forward and there are plenty of values at the position, so Durant is probably best suited as a DraftKings’ play where we can use him at small forward or power forward. Even when Draymond Green doesn’t score (ten points in Game 3), he can still come close to reaching value thanks to his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. When it comes to a raw projection (salaries excluded), Green is the top option in the slate.

Zaza Pachulia missed Game 3 with a foot injury and is currently listed as questionable heading into Game 4. If he is unable to suit up, JaVale McGee would draw another start at center. He was incredibly productive in his last game, scoring 18 fantasy points in 13 minutes of action. The key statistic here is the 13 minutes. Everyone is going to overreact to the McGee highlights, but he actually makes a decent fade if we can expect him to be highly owned. The Warriors’ bench doesn’t really have any fantasy appeal at this time and can be avoided.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $9,600 1.25 33.4 1.1 41.6 3.8 31.3% -0.2% 8 -1.07
Klay Thompson $7,100 $6,000 0.91 34.0 0.3 30.9 -8.3 24.6% -4.2% 12 2.10
Kevin Durant $10,000 $10,100 1.36 33.4 -1.1 45.5 -6.0 28.0% -0.3% 2 1.37
Draymond Green $8,600 $7,900 1.06 32.5 2.3 34.6 7.6 19.3% -0.7% 2 1.25
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $2,900 0.96 18.1 -2.7 17.4 -2.6 15.7% 2.0% 2 1.43
Andre Iguodala $4,700 $4,600 0.75 26.3 0.0 19.7 -1.7 13.2% 1.9% 2 N/A
Matt Barnes $1,500 $2,200 0.74 24.0 -16.8 17.8 -14.4 15.8% 0.8% 2 N/A
Shaun Livingston $1,500 $2,600 0.62 17.7 -0.6 11.0 -0.9 14.4% -2.0% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (FD), JaVale McGee (DK)


San Antonio Spurs

One more loss and the Spurs will be eliminated from the playoffs. They would like to extend the series if possible, but they have zero momentum on their side. In fact, they haven’t had any momentum since Game 1 when Kawhi Leonard went down with his injury. Leonard is listed as questionable ahead of Game 4, but he will likely sit or at the very least, be limited. Vegas seems to agree, as the Spurs are listed as 10-point underdogs in a game at home.

This is one of those series where we will look back and think about the what-ifs. It appears to be headed for a sweep, even though it could have been a tremendous series if the Spurs would have been healthy. San Antonio will likely put everything on the line in Game 4, so we can expect big minutes from their starters for at least the first three quarters. Patty Mills has struggled to get going in this series. Dollar for dollar, I actually prefer Dejounte Murray, who has been productive in limited playing time off the bench. Danny Green and Manu Ginobili are both borderline elite plays on FanDuel. They should both see a full complement of minutes and they are two of the better values at the position.

Jonathon Simmons is close to a must play if Kawhi Leonard is ruled out again. At the time of tonight’s lock, we don’t know about Leonard, but again, I see him as closer to doubtful. I don’t mind using Simmons even with Leonard’s status still up in the air. Kyle Anderson would also become an elite play if Leonard is ruled out. He started in Game 3 and scored 25 fantasy points in 20 minutes of action. LaMarcus Aldridge has been ice cold from the floor ever since Leonard was injured in Game 1. The Warriors have turned him into a jump shooter and he isn’t knocking his looks down. He looks a bit lost right now, but I expect him to be the lowest owned of the three expensive power forwards if you want to play the ownership angle.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,200 $5,500 0.79 21.9 3.7 17.2 0.0 21.8% -2.0% 3 0.24
Danny Green $4,200 $4,400 0.62 26.6 1.4 16.5 -0.3 13.8% -0.7% 14 -0.91
Jonathon Simmons $4,300 $5,800 0.67 17.9 0.5 11.9 1.8 18.9% 3.4% 5 1.35
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,000 $7,800 0.96 32.4 2.4 31.1 -1.4 24.0% -0.6% 21 5.08
Pau Gasol $6,100 $4,900 1.06 25.4 -1.9 26.9 -6.6 21.5% -4.3% 12 3.61
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $4,000 0.84 18.7 -1.1 15.7 -2.5 22.0% -2.7% 14 N/A
Kyle Anderson $2,500 $3,600 0.74 14.2 -4.0 10.5 -1.8 13.0% 4.4% 5 N/A
Dejounte Murray $2,600 $4,100 0.76 8.5 3.3 6.5 3.9 24.9% -1.7% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Danny Green (FD), Manu Ginobili (FD), Jonathon Simmons, Kyle Anderson

Secondary Plays – Danny Green (DK), Manu Ginobili (DK), Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious