NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 26th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.0 |  | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Malcolm Brogdon | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 27 | DvP | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
We only have a single game on the schedule tonight, so if you have been waiting to try out the single-game contests on FanDuel and DraftKings, this is your chance. The Celtics picked up a big win in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead in the series. The home team has won all five games so far and the Celtics come into Game 6 as 4.5-point underdogs. It doesn’t really matter what their implied total is though, as we don’t have any other games to compare it to.
Terry Rozier is cheaper than Eric Bledsoe on FanDuel and more expensive than him on DraftKings. I’ll side with the home player here, as Bledsoe is coming off of his best game of the series. Rozier has been tremendous during this series, but we could see his role diminish with Marcus Smart back from injury. Smart logged 24 minutes and scored 35 fantasy points in Game 5 and has been cleared to play up to 35 minutes tonight. At his price point, he’s arguably the best value play of the slate on both FanDuel ($9,000) and DraftKings ($5,600). Jaylen Brown has been slightly more productive than Jayson Tatum in this series, but I’m not sure the $3,200 price difference is warranted on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I’d lean Brown over Tatum.
Semi Ojeleye drew the start in Game 5 and had a bigger role than anyone expected. He played 31 minutes and scored 12 fantasy points. The Celtics are using him to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Ojeleye played minutes in the upper-20s tonight. At a price of $1,300 on DraftKings, he basically allows you to do anything you want with the rest of your lineup. Aron Baynes only played ten minutes off the bench in Game 5. With Smart back from injury and Ojeleye in the starting lineup, Baynes is an easy fade in all formats. Marcus Morris has played well in all three home games in this series and has struggled in the two road games. He’s viable on DraftKings ($6,700), but not a core play with this game being in Milwaukee. Al Hoford is my favorite play from Boston. Through five games, he has averaged 36 minutes and 38 fantasy points in this series.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -5.8 (2 of 2)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $13,000 | $10,200 | 23.9 | 10.1 | 25.9 | 9.8 | 0.92 | 20.0% | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $12,500 | $11,800 | 25.2 | 9.6 | 30.7 | 6.8 | 0.82 | 18.5% | 14 | 12 | 18 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $11,500 | $8,600 | 26.0 | 3.9 | 30.5 | 1.9 | 0.85 | 17.0% | 16 | 5 | 23 | |
| Al Horford | $14,500 | $11,400 | 32.1 | 5.6 | 31.6 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 17.8% | 2 | 10 | 5 | |
| Aron Baynes | $8,000 | $4,100 | 15.8 | -0.9 | 18.3 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 14.8% | 30 | 27 | 22 | |
| Marcus Morris | $10,000 | $6,700 | 23.2 | -1.9 | 26.7 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Marcus Smart | $9,000 | $5,600 | 24.3 | 3.7 | 29.9 | -5.0 | 0.81 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Semi Ojeleye | $6,000 | $1,300 | 6.7 | -2.0 | 15.8 | -0.6 | 0.42 | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (DK), Semi Ojeleye (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (DK), Jayson Tatum (FD), Marcus Morris (DK)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are in a must-win Game 6, as they will be eliminated with a loss. This is certainly a team capable of winning the next two games and advancing to the second round, but they need to figure out a way to win in Boston. Before we get there, they need to take care of business at home. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight with an implied total of 102.8 points.
Eric Bledsoe seems overpriced on FanDuel ($14,000) and underpriced on DraftKings ($9,600). He hasn’t been great in this series, but he did score 38 fantasy points in Game 5. The same can be said for Malcolm Brogdon, who is one of the few contrarian plays that stand out in this single-game slate. After putting up a dud in Game 5, people will be hesitant to target Brogdon, even though this game is in Milwaukee. Khris Middleton has averaged 39 minutes and 41 fantasy points in this series and should play as many minutes as he can handle tonight. Giannis Antetokounpo is basically a lock for the “MVP” roster spot on FanDuel where the production of that player is multiplied by 1.5. Giannis is also an elite play on DraftKings, as he’s clearly the top overall play of the slate.
The Bucks’ frontcourt has been tough to figure out. Tyler Zeller has been drawing the start for the injured John Henson, but he doesn’t play enough minutes to warrant consideration. The better option is Thon Maker, who has averaged 25 minutes over the last three games. He was bad chalk in Game 5, but role players tend to perform better at home and we should get him at a discounted ownership tonight. He’s right there with Marcus Smart as one of my favorite value plays of the slate. Jabari Parker has played well in each of the last three games and should have a big role in an elimination game at home. He’s a little expensive on DraftKings, but one of the best point-per-dollar plays on FanDuel ($9,500).
Best of luck to everyone brave enough to try the single-game slate. I plan to take the night off of NBA DFS and get back at it tomorrow.
Notable Injuries
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (1 of 2)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $14,000 | $9,600 | 34.7 | -6.8 | 31.4 | 0.4 | 1.10 | 23.6% | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $8,000 | $4,700 | 24.0 | -10.1 | 29.9 | -4.2 | 0.80 | 18.1% | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Khris Middleton | $14,500 | $12,200 | 35.4 | 5.3 | 36.4 | 2.6 | 0.97 | 22.2% | 6 | 20 | 3 | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $18,000 | $16,200 | 51.8 | -0.1 | 36.8 | 2.6 | 1.41 | 28.0% | 8 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tyler Zeller | $6,000 | $3,300 | 14.7 | -5.5 | 16.8 | -6.7 | 0.87 | 14.5% | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Jabari Parker | $9,500 | $9,000 | 23.1 | -0.9 | 24.0 | -1.6 | 0.96 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Thon Maker | $6,000 | $4,500 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 16.7 | 3.2 | 0.74 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Matthew Dellavedova | $6,000 | $2,700 | 11.9 | -4.1 | 18.7 | -5.3 | 0.64 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |