NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 5th - Page Three
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -15.5, 225 Over/Under
- Minnesota Timberwolves Proj. Starters – Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Dieng-Towns
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 225.0 |  | Vegas Total | 225.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 15.5 | Vegas Sprd | -15.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 120.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.30 | Team Pace | 101.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 21 | Opp. Season | 24 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 6 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 15 | Last 3 Weeks | 25 | 22 | 11 | 19 | 3 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 25-52 — Road: 12-26 — Last 10: 4-6
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.5 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.8 (8 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (7 of 24)
The Wolves played the Warriors tough in their last meeting, but that game was played in Minnesota. I expect a different result this time around. The Wolves are listed as 15.5-point underdogs against a team that is on track to make history. After losing to the Celtics at home last week, the Warriors do not want to mess around. I expect them to take care of business tonight. If the Wolves could keep the game close, there would be a few interesting GPP plays. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.8 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.4 (16 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Kevin Garnett (Out)
Nikola Pekovic (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Golden State Warriors
Record: 69-8 — Home: 37-1 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 115.3 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 120.3 (1 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (5 of 24)
The Warriors have five games left to make history. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Wolves at home. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board at 120.3 points. While a blowout is a real concern, the Warriors want to make sure to win tonight’s game, so we can at least expect three quarters from the starters. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Wolves are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Klay Thompson is an interesting GPP play, but I prefer Jimmy Butler if you are spending up at shooting guard.
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.7 (17 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Andrew Bogut (Questionable)
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Stephen Curry | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,400 | Salary:$10,400 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.40 | FP/Min:1.54 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.1 | 36.1 | 2.0 | 36.3 | 2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.6 | 47.8 | 0.2 | 45.9 | -1.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.7 | 26.2 | -1.5 | 25.0 | -2.7 |
Curry is good at basketball. I could end my analysis there, but I suppose I will go on. Curry is averaging 47.8 fantasy points over his last ten games and he draws one of the top matchups on the board. The Wolves are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
| Draymond Green | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,100 | Salary:$8,500 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.13 | FP/Min:1.24 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.7 | 37.2 | 2.5 | 37.4 | 2.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.4 | 44.0 | 4.6 | 47.9 | 8.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 15.4 | -0.6 | 16.1 | 0.1 |
Green has been incredible over his last ten games, averaging 44 fantasy points per contest. I’m a little worried about a blowout here, but Green could very realistically post another triple-double tonight against the Wolves. I still see him as an elite play, even with the blowout risk.
Secondary Plays
NONE