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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 5th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-05 16:50:18

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Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Memphis Grizzlies
chicagonba Vegas Total 201.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 98.50 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter E’Twaun Moore Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Bobby Portis Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Tony Allen Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 10 6 14 14 5 Opp. Season 27 15 25 25 22
Last 3 Weeks 10 26 12 30 20 Last 3 Weeks 18 11 20 21 10

Chicago Bulls

Record: 39-38 — Road: 15-23 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have lost some tough games recently and they now find themselves on the outside looking in. They are two games behind the Pistons for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Grizzlies, whose defense has basically been non-existent since losing Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The major question mark here is the status of Derrick Rose. If he is unable to suit up, Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler would become elite plays. E’Twaun Moore would also draw the start at point guard. Nikola Mirotic has flashed some upside recently, but I prefer Mirza Teletovic at a similar price point.

Elite / Secondary Plays

TBD – With Derrick Rose off the floor this season, here is the usage breakdown of the other two stars in the Bulls’ lineup: Jimmy Butler (), Pau Gasol (). With the Bulls in a must-win situation, I would likely lock up Butler and Gasol in cash games if Rose ends up being out. If Rose plays, Gasol would still be an elite play, while Butler would become more of a secondary option.

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 29.8 -2.1 33.2 1.3
FPPG (FD) 38.8 34.6 -4.2 37.8 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 20.1 -1.3 21.0 -0.3
Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$7,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.2 36.0 -1.2 37.4 0.2
FPPG (FD) 37.3 36.7 -0.6 43.6 6.3
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 19.1 -2.6 20.3 -1.5

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 41-36 — Home: 25-14 — Last 10: 2-8

The Grizzlies continue to lose games and are now in danger of falling down in the standings. They only hold a half game lead over the Blazers and a two game lead over the Mavericks and Jazz. The Grizzlies are 2.5-point underdogs tonight at home. They are only projected to score 99.8 points, which is the ninth lowest team total on the board. This isn’t the worst matchup though, as the Bulls have allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game this season.

Elite Plays

Zach Randolph
zach-randolph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.7 33.1 3.4 31.5 1.8
FPPG (FD) 27.7 36.3 8.6 31.2 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.7 26.0 5.3 27.8 7.1

Randolph is a very safe cash game option tonight. He sees a small boost with Taj Gibson doubtful and he has basically had a floor of around 30 fantasy points recently. With tonight’s game expected to stay close, Randolph should see 32-34 minutes of action. His usage rate of 26 over his last ten games is very enticing.

Secondary Plays

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 34.2 5.8 33.6 5.2
FPPG (FD) 21.3 25.4 4.0 23.1 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 17.6 2.5 15.3 0.2

Barnes would be an elite play tonight if it weren’t for a few duds that he has sprinkled into his game log. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in four of his last five games though and the Bulls haven’t been great against small forwards this season. I like the upside here, but will likely be looking elsewhere at small forward in cash games.

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz
sanantonionba Vegas Total 184.5 utahnba Vegas Total 184.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 90.5
Team Pace 96.00 Team Pace 93.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 7 2 2 1 3 Opp. Season 5 1 1 2 2
Last 3 Weeks 2 1 4 3 5 Last 3 Weeks 11 9 1 4 4

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 64-12 — Road: 25-12 — Last 10: 8-2

This is a game that should save us all some time. The total for the game is set at only 184.5 points, which is the lowest that we have seen in quite a while. The Spurs have little to play for at this point, other than trying to break the record for the undefeated season at home. With this game being played on the road, they could end up limiting their starters minutes. Even if we could count on a full complement of minutes, this is one of the worst possible fantasy matchups. The Jazz are ranked second in points allowed per game this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah Jazz

Record: 39-38 — Home: 24-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Jazz are one of the few teams with a lot on the line tonight. While that is an attribute that we should look for in the last couple weeks of the season, it is not enough to overcome tonight’s matchup. The Spurs have the best defense in the entire NBA. The Jazz are only projected to score 90.5 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential. Everyone in this game can be avoided for fantasy purposes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Denver Nuggets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 216.5 denvernba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 112.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 20 27 19 23 11 Opp. Season 18 23 8 8 4
Last 3 Weeks 22 29 27 15 6 Last 3 Weeks 6 28 13 5 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 53-24 — Road: 22-15 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder are all but locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. When Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been active, they are seeing 35-38 minutes per game. While that’s promising, you have to think that the Thunder would want to limit their minutes, as they gear up for the playoffs. The Thunder are projected to score 112.5 points tonight against the Nuggets, which gives them the third highest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.55
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 33.5 -1.1 35.3 0.7
FPPG (FD) 49.3 47.9 -1.4 48.6 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 28.7 0.2 28.6 0.2

If the Thunder came out and said that Westbrook will play 35+ minutes, I would have him right up there with DeMarcus Cousins as my top overall play. However, I’m a little worried that the Thunder will actually be smart down the stretch of the regular season. With nothing to play for (and in a game that features a high spread), Westbrook’s minutes could be limited. For that reason, I see him as more of a secondary option.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$10,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 34.9 -1.1 36.6 0.6
FPPG (FD) 46.3 48.3 2.1 48.0 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 26.1 28.0 2.0 29.9 3.8

See: Russell Westbrook – the same concept applies to Durant.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 32-46 — Home: 17-21 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have had some bad losses recently. They couldn’t beat the Pelicans or the DeMarcus Cousins-less Kings. Tonight they host one of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Thunder have been a neutral matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking 15th in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. While the Nuggets are projected to score 104 points, their rotation makes them risky fantasy options. We can’t count on any single player to see more than 30 minutes on a nightly basis. D.J. Augustin is my favorite play here, but I will only be targeting him in GPPs. He has the revenge narrative going for him tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Sacramento Kings
portlandnba Vegas Total 223.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 113.0 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 98.20 Team Pace 102.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 22 29 21 30 19 Opp. Season 23 19 4 24 27
Last 3 Weeks 12 24 3 22 23 Last 3 Weeks 27 17 8 29 25

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 41-37 — Road: 15-25 — Last 10: 6-4

The Blazers still have a lot to play for. They currently own a game and a half lead over the Jazz and Mavericks in the Western Conference. They want to avoid falling to the seventh or eighth seed so that they can avoid a first round matchup against the Warriors or Spurs. The Blazers draw the best fantasy matchup on the board tonight, as they take on the Kings in Sacramento. They are projected to score 113 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the highest projected point differential. Give a major boost to the Blazers’ offense as a whole tonight.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.8 0.0 33.1 -2.7
FPPG (FD) 39.8 34.9 -4.9 29.9 -9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 27.7 26.3 -1.4 26.3 -1.4

Lillard hasn’t been great in his last ten games, but is coming off of a huge game against the Warriors. He draws an even better matchup tonight, as he gets to face the worst defensive team in the NBA. With a lot to play for, Lillard should see a full complement of minutes in a great matchup. What’s not to like?

Maurice Harkless
maurice-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.2 23.7 5.5 27.3 9.1
FPPG (FD) 12.7 20.0 7.3 25.7 13.0
TO-Adj. Usage 13.0 15.7 2.7 15.9 2.9

Harkless has been tremendous since entering the starting lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.7 fantasy points in 27.3 minutes per contest. He has been consistent during that stretch too, so he can be used in all league formats. He is one of the best value plays on the board.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 35.5 0.7 32.7 -2.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 33.4 1.8 33.4 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 23.2 -0.4 23.8 0.2

McCollum has been a tough player for me to predict this season. I have been on the wrong side of him more often than not. While I love the matchup against the Kings, I would rather pay a little more and go up to Jimmy Butler (especially if Derrick Rose is out). I see McCollum as more of a GPP play tonight.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 31-46 — Home: 17-21 — Last 10: 5-5

The Kings don’t have anything to play for at this point of the season, but they also don’t have a reason to limit their starters minutes. DeMarcus Cousins is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, which is why the Kings are only 3-point underdogs. This game has a high total of 223 points and is arguably the top game to target for fantasy production tonight. Sacramento is projected to score 110 points, which gives them the sixth highest team total and the eighth highest projected point differential.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$10,200
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.39 FP/Min:1.51
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 32.6 -1.9 30.2 -4.3
FPPG (FD) 48.0 50.3 2.3 51.5 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 29.0 26.7 -2.3 26.3 -2.7

It sounds like the Kings will sit Cousins in the remaining road games, which should leave him well rested for the home games. He is the premier play on the board tonight, as he should be able to dominate an undersized Blazers’ frontcourt. He will likely end up being the chalkiest superstar in the slate, because we don’t have to worry about the Kings limiting his minutes.

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 32.6 -2.5 30.3 -4.8
FPPG (FD) 36.5 32.3 -4.2 32.3 -4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 15.4 -1.6 17.0 0.0

Rondo’s ownership is always a little lower than it should be. Despite averaging 36.5 fantasy points per game this season, he is rarely on the radar of most people that play DFS. He is an excellent GPP play tonight against the Blazers, who have struggled to contain point guards this season.

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Clippers
lalakersnba Vegas Total 207.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 14.0 Vegas Sprd -14.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 110.5
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 9 4 10 11 17 Opp. Season 30 28 28 20 28
Last 3 Weeks 21 5 4 26 8 Last 3 Weeks 23 30 18 9 30

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 16-60 — Road: 5-32 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers are a mess right now, but it sounds like they may tighten the rotation down the stretch. It sounds like Lou Williams, Brandon Bass, and Nick Young could all find themselves on the bench the rest of the way. Either way, the Lakers are not a great team to target tonight. They are 14-point underdogs against the Clippers, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency this season. The Lakers have the sixth lowest team total on the board at only 96.5 points. I will not be chasing the big game from Kobe Bryant the other night. Even though he is cheap, he is too inconsistent for my liking.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jordan Clarkson
jordan-clarkson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,000
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 30.8 -1.4 34.4 2.2
FPPG (FD) 24.8 22.8 -2.0 26.1 1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.2 1.5 19.7 0.0

Assuming Nick Young and Lou Williams are out of the rotation, that secures the minutes for Clarkson. He should end up playing 35+ minutes tonight against the Clippers. While the matchup is less than appealing, I do like the upside that he provides at this price.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 48-28 — Home: 26-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have all but locked up the four seed in the Western Conference. They don’t have a ton to play for the rest of the way and will likely look to limit their starter’s minutes. To make matters worse, Blake Griffin is back in the lineup, which will eventually cut into the fantasy production of Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. I love the Clippers’ matchup against the Lakers tonight, but I have a hard time projecting any of their starters for more than 30 minutes. For that reason, they are deep GPP plays at best.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious