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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-10 00:00:58

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Phoenix at Atlanta – 7:30 PM

Phoenix Atlanta
phoenixnba Vegas Total 204 atlantanba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 98.99 Team Pace 96.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe P.J. Tucker Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Brandan Wright Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Mike Scott Al Horford
Opp. Season 13 18 11 16 9 Opp. Season 18 20 24 10 19
Opp. Last 7 25 7 4 12 19 Opp. Last 7

Phoenix

The Suns are now three games behind the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have little to not shot of making the playoffs. They need a win tonight against the Hawks to keep their hopes alive though. The Suns are expected to be without Brandon Knight and Alex Len, which means Brandan Wight and the Morris twins should all log heavy minutes against Atlanta.

Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 57-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Elite Plays

Brandan Wright (FanDuel $4900, DraftKings: $5200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 14)

With Alex Len likely out tonight, wright should draw another start at center. He has been terrific in his four starts with the Suns, averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. He should see at least 30 minutes of action tonight, which is more than enough time to reach value at his price point. Dollar for dollar, he is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight.

Markieff Morris (FD: $7100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.5)

Morris continues to carry the load offensively for the Suns. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last nine games, yet his price on DraftKings refuses to budge. He’s a strong play on FanDuel as well, but his price is considerably more expensive there. Morris sees a small boost tonight with Paul Millsap out. He will now match up against Mike Scott.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris (FD: $5600, DK: $5400), P.J. Tucker (FD: $5300, DK: $5000), and T.J. Warren (FD: $4300, DK: $3500) are all secondary options at their respective positions.

Atlanta

The Hawks literally have nothing to play for at this point of the season. They have the one seed in the East locked up and they have no chance of catching the Warriors for the best overall record in the NBA. Paul Millsap will miss tonight’s game with a shoulder injury and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Hawks limit the minutes of a few of their starters. Their matchup against the Suns is a favorable one, but unfortunately, we can’t count on any of the starters to see their usual allotment of minutes.

Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 39-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Elite Plays

Mike Scott (FD: $3700, DK: $3000 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 22.2)

Scott is tentatively expected to draw the start for Paul Millsap tonight. If that’s the case, he immediately becomes one of the top value plays on the board. He is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and we all know how productive he can be when given big minutes. He has average 0.83 fantasy points per minute this season and he could see 25-30 minutes of action tonight.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford (FD: $7000, DK: $6000), Jeff Teague (FD: $6200, DK: $5800), and DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5900, DK: $5500) are all in play against the Suns, but again, they may see limited action tonight. For that reason, they are secondary fantasy options.

Charlotte at Miami – 7:30 PM

Charlotte Miami
charlottenba Vegas Total 189 miaminba Vegas Total 189
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 95.58 Team Pace 93.12
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Gerald Henderson Jeffery Taylor Marvin Williams Bismack Biyombo Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Udonis Haslem Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 11 4 8 6 11 Opp. Season 17 7 3 18 6
Opp. Last 7 20 11 29 20 12 Opp. Last 7 26 5 19 7 9

Charlotte

The Hornets are currently game and a half behind the Celtics for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They are also a half-game behind the Heat, so this should serve as an elimination game. The Hornets are 3.5-point underdogs in a game that features the lowest total of the night. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and the Heat have held their opponents to the 6th-fewest points per game this season. Al Jefferson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller are all expected to miss tonight’s game, which opens up a ton of minutes for their backups.

Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 34-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker (FD: $7900, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)

With Al Jefferson out, Walker is going to have to put this team on his back if they are going to have any chance of making the playoffs. He has played well in his last ten games, averaging 34 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He should see an uptick in usage tonight against the Heat, who have struggled to contain opposing point guards since acquiring Goran Dragic.

Gerald Henderson (FD: $5500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.5)

Henderson will likely get overlooked tonight, as the masses will flock to Walker, Williams, and Biyombo. Henderson deserves consideration though, as he will see an uptick in both minutes and usage with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Al Jefferson out. Henderson has scored at least 20 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games, topping the 25-fantasy point mark five times during that stretch.

Marvin Williams (FD: $5000, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.3)

With Cody Zeller and Al Jefferson likely out tonight, Williams is going to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He has played well in Zeller’s absence recently, averaging 27 fantasy points per contest over his last six. His price has come up across the industry, but his increased role in the offense more than offsets the elevated price point.

Bismack Biyombo (FD: $4100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 11.9)

With Al Jefferson unlikely to play, Biyombo should draw the start at center. In his start on Saturday night, he finished with 9 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He has now scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last four games and he has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight.

Secondary Plays

None

Miami

As I mentioned with the Hornets, this game will likely be an elimination game. The loser tonight will be on the outside looking in. The Heat have lost four games in a row and seven of their last ten. They are still installed as 3.5-point favorites tonight though. The Hornets present a difficult matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 4th in points allowed per game this season. Luol Deng (knee) and Hassan Whiteside (hand) are both questionable tonight, so make sure to get an update on their status before setting your lineups.

Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 33-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade (FD: $7300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.4)

Wade’s price is depressed and the Heat are in a must-win situation. That’s a combination that I love to see in daily fantasy. Wade has scored at least 31 fantasy points in back-to-back outings and he should be able to reach that mark again tonight. The Heat need vintage Wade if they are going to make the playoffs. I think that Wade shows up tonight against the Hornets.

Goran Dragic (FD: $6300, DK: $6600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.3)

Dragic has been hit or miss recently, but he has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last ten games. He has a high usage rate in this offense and he should see at least 35 minutes of action tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Kemba Walker and the Hornets, who have been atrocious against point guards over the last few weeks.

Secondary Plays

Udonis Haslem (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 14.7) – Haslem is a find secondary option either way, but he would see a sizable boost if Hassan Whiteside is unable to play tonight.

Golden State at New Orleans – 8:00 PM

Golden State New Orleans
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 204 neworleansnba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 100.61 Team Pace 93.68
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Quincy Pondexter Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 15 16 7 5 18 Opp. Season 6 6 10 19 15
Opp. Last 7 12 1 3 8 29 Opp. Last 7 15 4 24 28 7

Golden State

The Warriors have nothing to play for at this point of the season. They basically have home-court advantage locked up throughout the playoffs. They are in an interesting situation tonight though, as this game could impact who they end up playing in the first round. If the Warriors want to face the Pelicans, they may rest a few starters here. If they want to face the Thunder, they may try to win tonight’s game. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play tonight.

Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 41-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5

Elite Plays

Klay Thompson (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)

Thompson is a borderline elite play tonight, but he’s the one Warriors’ player that is on my radar. His price point is low enough that he could reach value, even if he sees less than 30 minutes of action. Thompson has now scored at least 31 fantasy points in five of his last six outings. The Pelicans have been average against shooting guards this season, giving up the 15th-most fantasy points to the position.

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry (FD: $9800, DK: $9200), Draymond Green (FD: $7300, DK: $7000), and Andrew Bogut (FD: $5200, DK: $4800) are all viable secondary options tonight, although they could see limited action , as the Warriors just need to stay healthy at this point.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are tied with the Thunder in the loss column. They have a great chance to jump ahead of them in the standings with a win tonight. The Thunder draw a very difficult matchup against the Spurs. With their season on the line, we can expect Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon to all see a ton of playing time tonight. While the Warriors do possess an elite defense, their fast pace of play helps offset that. They are ranked 14th in points allowed per game this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 63-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis (FD: $12000, DK: $11200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)

Let’s see, are the Pelicans in a must-win tonight? Check! All right, that’s basically all you need to know to roster Anthony Davis tonight. He should see close to 40 minutes of action against a Warriors’ defense that is ranked 19th against power forwards this season. He is clearly the top overall play for tonight’s slate and he’s a very tough fade for cash games. There is enough value out there to fit him in your lineups relatively easily.

Secondary Plays

Tyreke Evans (FD: $8000, DK: $7900) and Eric Gordon (FD: $5200, DK: $5100) are both in play tonight against the Warriors. Evans is a borderline elite play, but he’s listed as a secondary option, because there are quite a few viable options at point guard tonight.

San Antonio at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Oklahoma City
sanantonionba Vegas Total 216 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 216
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 111.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 95.86 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Tim Duncan Matt Bonner Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Dion Waiters Kyle Singler Enes Kanter Steven Adams
Opp. Season 25 10 20 26 5 Opp. Season 10 1 1 20 13
Opp. Last 7 10 29 18 18 24 Opp. Last 7 13 6 8 2 15

San Antonio

The Spurs have won seven games in a row and nine of their last ten. They are making a push for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for in these next few games. The Spurs had an easy win over the Thunder in their last meeting, but they will have to face them in Oklahoma City this time around. Vegas is expecting a close, high-scoring game, as the Spurs are listed as 7-point favorites with the total set at 216 points.

Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 42-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)

Leonard continues to tear his way through any opponent that the NBA schedule can throw at him. In his last ten games, he has averaged 37 fantasy points in only 29 minutes per contest. The best part is that as long as tonight’s game stays close, he will likely push for around 35 minutes of playing time. He’s easily the top small forward on the board tonight and is a highly recommended play for both cash games and tournaments.

Tim Duncan (FD: $6800, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)

Duncan’s minutes have been down recently, but that’s because the Spurs have been blowing everyone out. If tonight’s game stays close, Duncan could see upwards of 30 minutes. If he does, he should be able to easily reach value at his price point. He may be a little risky in cash games, but this is a matchup where he could explode for a huge outing. The Thunder are ranked 26th against power forwards this season and the Spurs will be without Tiago Splitter.

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker (FD: $5800, DK: $5400), Danny Green (FD: $5200, DK: $5400), and Aron Baynes (FD: $3900, DK: $3300) are all viable secondary options tonight in a high-scoring game against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City

Much like the Spurs, the Thunder have everything to play for at this point of the season. They are currently only a half-game ahead of the Pelicans for the eighth and final playoff spot. They will have their hands full tonight though, as they host a red-hot Spurs’ team that looks primed for another playoff run. The Spurs do own an elite defense, but the high total of the game suggests that this game will be both fast-paced and high-scoring.

Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 51-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook (FD: $12300, DK: $11800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)

I typically like to avoid superstars against the Spurs. Coach Popovich is terrific at putting together a game plan to slow down his opponents’ best players. Westbrook struggled in his last meeting against the Spurs, scoring only 31 fantasy points. That said, the Thunder are in a must-win situation and this game is expected to stay close. It also doesn’t hurt that his price has finally come down a bit across the industry.

Enes Kanter (FD: $7700, DK: $7600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)

Kanter has been on a tear since Serge Ibaka went down with his injury. In his last eight games, he has averaged 38 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He does have an elevated price point, but as long as he continue to produce, I don’t mind paying a premium for him. He has a floor of around 30 fantasy points with a ceiling that is much, much higher.

Secondary Plays

Steven Adams (FD: $5400, DK: $5400) and Dion Waiters (FD: $4500, DK: $4700) are both in play as secondary options tonight against the Spurs.

Minnesota at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Rudy Gay has been upgraded to probable

Minnesota Sacramento
minnesotanba Vegas Total 211 sacramentonba Vegas Total 211
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 96.91 Team Pace 97.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Zach LaVine Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Adreian Payne Justin Hamilton Proj Starter Ray McCallum Ben McLemore Omri Casspi Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 26 30 14 22 26 Opp. Season 29 27 27 24 28
Opp. Last 7 8 28 26 25 5 Opp. Last 7 9 24 14 15 25

Minnesota

The Wolves will be without Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio, Gorgui Dieng, Anthony Bennett, and Gary Neal tonight. Kevin Garnett is listed as questionable, but I’m not going to get my hopes up that he will play. The Wolves are 10-point underdogs tonight, but this is one of the more favorable matchups on the board. The Kings are ranked 29th in points allowed per game this season, giving up an average of 104.9 points per contest.

Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 26-50
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.3)

I could copy and paste the same write-up every time the Wolves play. Basically, we know what we are going to get from Wiggins at this point of the season. He’s going to have a high usage rate in the offense and he’s going to play around 40 minutes. I like his chances to reach value tonight against the Kings, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Zach LaVine (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)

LaVine has played well over his last seven games, averaging 26 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 28-fantasy point mark four times. He should also push for 40 minutes of action tonight and he draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 26th against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Martin (FD: $6400, DK: $6000) and Justin Hamilton (FD: $5100, DK: $5000) are both in play tonight against the Kings. Both could easily reach and exceed value at their respective price points.

Sacramento

The Kings are looking to snap their five-game losing streak tonight. They have a great chance to do just that, as they are facing a Wolves team that is depleted and with little motivation at this point of the season. The Kings are 10-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 111 points. They are hoping to have Rudy Gay back in the lineup. If he is unable to play, give a sizable fantasy boost to Omri Casspi and Ray McCallum.

Elite Plays

Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Rudy Gay has been upgraded to probable

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $12300, DK: $10300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.9)

After the last few weeks, I have decided that I need a DeMarcus Cousins’ jersey. That’s the least that I could do for him, as he has scored at least 70 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He has just as much upside as Anthony Davis and he arguable has the better matchup of the two. He should be able to dominate a depleted Wolves’ frontcourt en route to another monster fantasy outing.

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay (FD: $8200, DK: $7500 and Omri Casspi (FD: $4000, DK: $4500) are both viable secondary options tonight against the Wolves. If Gay is unable to suit up, bump Casspi up to an elite play, as he has really played well in Gay’s absence the last few games.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious